So when unemployment benefits end for many people, will that lead to a "drop" in unemployment?

[Hugabear]

I'm just wondering, with the Rethugs allowing unemployment benefits to lapse for many people, if that will lead to a false "drop" in unemployment numbers?

[Lil Missy]

1. Yes.

[Zynx]

2. You can still be counted as unemployed without being on UI.

Look up the definitions carefully.

[sandnsea]

3. For 7 years DU has been explaining unemployment numbers

Unemployment Benefits have NOTHING to do with unemployment numbers.

The unemployment rate comes from a household survey.

[Coyote_Bandit]

10. Of course that survey

is only as good as its population sample.

And folks are considered not in the labor force even though they would prefer to be working unless they are actively seeking employment. That means discouraged workers are not considered part of the work force. It also means that folks who return to school for additional training or re-training are no longer considered part of the work force.

And all those unemployed folks who use the desk in a corner of a spare bedroom to earn a few bucks doing a bit of consulting from time to time represent job creation.

The unemployment numbers are really pretty much meaningless. The labor force participation rate is a far better measure.

[Greyhound]

14. And for 7 years there has been a contingent that seeks to discount or distract

from the manipulation of those numbers, rendering them meaningless.

[sandnsea]

17. No. Only people saying ui benefits aren't the unemployment rate

There's a cazillion ways they can manipulate the unemployment figures. I haven't seen anybody ever deny that. It would be nice if people would stop saying that you don't get counted when you lose your unemployment check, it's just not true. That's all.

[sandnsea]

18. Look at this thread

Look at the number of people who continue to believe unemployment checks has anything in the world to do with the counting of the unemployment rate. It's astounding. And they just don't even care to go look up the facts. And these are the smart people.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Birthmark]

4. That depends

If they continue to look for work, then no, there won't be a drop in unemployment.

If they quit looking for work, they stop being counted as unemployed and go into the "Not in Labor Force" category.

[jody]

5. "drop" only if the person is no longer seeking employment. n/t

[elleng]

6. It has already done so.

Current apparent 'increase' is due to those formerly discouraged or no longer entitled signing up again, so the 'numbers' tend to be counter-intuitive.

[Duer 157099]

7. "Juking the stats" n/t

[peace frog]

8. Oh, you betcha!

::wink::

[laughingliberal]

9. Yes. They stop being counted among those actively seeking work. nt

[Warren Stupidity]

11. Yes. But there is an semi-official 'real unemployment' stat as well

And currently it is nearly double the nominal unemployment rate.

[sandnsea]

20. War on stupidity??

Are you having some kind of inner conflict in your head? NO, unemployment checks have nothing to do with the unemployment rate. Whether they count the unemployment rate accurately can be debated - but running out of benefits has nothning to do with it.

[Edweird]

12. After a certain length of time you are "discouraged" and no longer counted, I believe.

[quiller4]

25. Wrong. You are counted as "discouraged" if you reply that you

are not working and are no longer looking for work.

[Edweird]

27. Ok.

[Paper Roses]

13. Yup! 5 weeks to go and I am toast.

I have been trying to keep my life together since I was laid off. Looking for a job is the most demoralizing thing.

As a senior, your chances of finding a decent job are slim. I am of an age where my skills are 'yesterday' and as I search for a job, my old age medical conditions must factor into what I apply for.

5 weeks and I will no longer be a member of the unemployed. There is a mysterious limbo where job hunters of all ages go when they no longer count.

[Captain Hilts]

15. Yes. nt

[sandnsea]

19. Oh come on, you know better than that

Why are you saying that, you aren't stupid. They do a household survey that has NOTHING to do with unemployment benefits. You know that. Is the propaganda really worth that much to you??

[Captain Hilts]

21. It's the way the statistics work. The numbers for 'those employed' are more accurate.

This is the number that economists follow more.

I think they'll verify that some of the president's policies have staved off a severe decline.

[OhioChick]

16. Yep. n/t

[Mythbuster]

22. No, Because...

The unemployment rate is calculated by a Current Population Survey done weekly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The survey does not use any unemployment benefits or lack there of in determining the Unemployment rate. It's been done this way since 1940.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/

[theothersnippywshrub]

24. No. Only the ignorant or stupid think otherwise. n/t

[unblock]

26. BENEFITS have nothing to do directly with whether or not you COUNT as unemployed

except to the extent that once your benefits run out, you might decide not to bother looking for work and instead become a student or simply stop looking, in which case you would no longer count as unemployed.

but as long as you're actively looking, you count as unemployed, regardless of benefits.


what IS an issue is that as the job market improves, more and more of the discouraged people or students will decide to look again, in which case they add to the number of unemployed once again. this is one factor that slows any decline in the unemployment rate.