As a battleground state, it is to be expected that Oregon closely matches the national electorate. Since it votes 100% by mail, and paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%) exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote-counts, we can hypothesize that Oregon closely approximates the
True Vote. This is confirmed by the following facts:
1)
In 2000, Gore won
Oregon by 47.0–46.5%, matching his 48.4–47.9%
national (51.0–50.456 million) vote margin, and the 'national' aggregate of 2000 unadjusted State Exit Polls (
EC/HistWPE) indicated that Gore won by 49.4–46.9%, a 3.2 million (52.6–49.4) vote margin (2.66 million more than his official recorded margin).
- According to the 2000 Census, there were 5.4 million net uncounted votes. The majority (70-80%) of uncounted votes are Democratic. If Gore had 75% (4.0 million) of the uncounted votes, his national True Vote margin (based on total votes cast) was 49.6–46.8% (55.0–51.9 million) — a virtual match to his 49.4–46.9% aggregate state exit poll margin.
- According to the 'un-forced' (see above) 2004 PRELIM National Exit Poll, Kerry won returning Nader/Other voters by 65%-13%-... over Bush et al. Allocating the uncounted-adjusted national True Vote (49.6–46.8%) 'Other' share (3.6%), the 2000 national True Vote projects to 51.9–47.3%.
Allocating the state exit poll aggregate (49.4–46.9%) 'Other' share (3.7%), the 2000 aggregate of State Exit Polls projects to 51.8–47.4%.
Allocating (likewise) the Oregon 'Nader/Other' share (6.5%), the 2000 Oregon Vote-Count share (47.0–46.5%) projects to 51.2–47.4%.
The projections match near-exactly and approach – share and margin – Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, 52–47%.
Is it fair to assume that Oregon reflects the national electorate?
2) In 2004, Kerry
exceeded Gore’s margin in Oregon by 3.7%. His 51.4–47.2% vote tally closely matched his 'national' 52–47% aggregate of unadjusted State Exit Polls.
3) Kerry won the pollster’s
phone survey of Oregon voters by 52.3–46.3%, a slight 1.7% discrepancy with the Oregon vote margin.
4) Kerry's
'national' win of the aggregate of unadjusted State Exit Polls by 52–47% was merely 1% margin-discrepant with the Oregon phone survey.
5) In 14 other
battleground states, the average exitpoll/votecount WPD was a whopping 7.5%. In Oregon, the telephone survey equivalent was just 1.7%.
- Do you believe the True 2004 national vote is reflected in:
a)
the 2004 Oregon vote ( Kerry 51.4–Bush 47.2% ) and aggregate of 2004 unadjusted State Exit Polls ( Kerry 52–Bush 47% ), or
b)
the national recorded vote-count ( Bush 50.7–Kerry 48.3%, basis for the impossible Final NEP )?
In other words, do you believe that fraud cost Kerry the election?
6)
In
2008, Obama won Oregon by 56.7–40.4%. The True Vote model for OR indicated he had 57.1% — a virtual match. Obama’s True national share was 58.0%, but his recorded share was just 52.9%. One would expect that Obama’s recorded Oregon share would closely match his national True share.
- Do you believe:
a)
the 2008 Oregon vote ( 56.7% ) reflected Obama’s True national share ( 58.0% ), or
b)
the national recorded vote-count share ( 52.9% ) for Obama?
Did fraud cut Obama’s margin by 13.0 million (from 22.5 to 9.5 million)?
To summarize, Oregon matched the 2000 national recorded vote-count share and was within 2% of the 2000 aggregate state exit poll. It closely matched the 2004 Prelim National Exit Poll but was far from the 2004 national recorded vote-count share. In 2008, Oregon vote-count closely matched both the state and national True Vote models, but the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls
have not been released by the MSM.
Now consider New York.
In 2000, Gore won the state by 25% (60.2–35.2%). In 2004, Kerry’s recorded vote-count margin declined to 18.3% (58.4–40.1%). But Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 64.5–34.0%, a 12.2% WPD. Why the sharp reversal of fortune?
Consider the largest counties in Oregon and New York, Multnomah (OR) and Kings (NY):
Gore won Kings Cty (Brooklyn)
by 74.7–15.0%. Kerry won it by 74.2–22.8%, an 8.3% LOWER margin.
Gore won Multnomah
by 63.5–28.2%. Kerry won it by 71.6–27.4%, an 8.9% HIGHER margin.
It’s an
Urban Legend: Bush recorded vote share increased sharply from 2000 to 2004 in heavily Democratic urban areas but declined in rural locations. Except for Oregon — the ONLY 100% mail-in paper ballot and hand-recount state.
Consider that … 1)
Oregon votes by mail and NY by lever machines 2) In the last three elections,
the late NY Democratic (paper ballot) vote shares were 7% higher than the Election Day lever share 3) In 2004, the average
paper ballot precinct WPD was 2% and 12% for
levers 4) Kerry’s margin was
3.7% higher than Gore’s in Oregon (a battleground state), but
6.7% lower in New York (a strong Democratic state)
5) Kerry
exceeded Gore’s margin by 8.9% in Oregon’s largest urban county (Multnomah) but
Gore exceeded Kerry by 8.3% in New York’s largest (Kings)
6) Oregon had a
1.7% discrepancy in an exit pollster telephone survey compared to the
7.5% average WPD for the other 14 battleground states 7) Oregon closely matched the 2004 aggregate exit poll after
allocating returning Nader voters to Kerry and Bush
8)
Oregon
paper ballots are available for
hand recounts (see
254.525,
258.211,
comments).
New York votes are
cast on levers, but
counted on computers; there is
no way to verify them 9) Gore won NY by 60.2–35.2%. Allocating the 4.6% Nader/other vote, Kerry wins by 63-36% – assuming equal Gore/Bush defection
10)
According to the
Preliminary National Exit Poll (before it was
'forced' to match the vote count) 10% of returning Bush and 8% of returning Gore voters defected. Assuming these defection rates, Kerry’s NY margin
increased by 2% to 64-35%, matching the unadjusted NY-State Exit Poll11) Gore did slightly better than his 60.2% NY recorded share after allocating 180,000 net
uncounted votes
12) In the two elections in which Clinton was the incumbent, the New York exit polls had an average 0.6
WPD.
13) In the three elections in which a Bush was the incumbent, the NewYork exit polls had an average 8.0 WPD.
14)
Oregon voters don’t worry about insufficient precinct levers, machine failures, vote counts terminating at 99, stuck levers, long lines, intimidation by poll workers, and unverifiable vote counts.
If one ignores all of the above, there is every reason for New Yorkers to “love those levers” – except for this: Even if everyone who came to the polls voted and all the lever machines performed perfectly, the fact remains that votes are counted by proprietary computer software, not open source, which can easily be programmed to switch votes that may or may not have been entered accurately. Ay, there’s the rub.In 2004, the exit pollsters reported that lever voting machine precincts had a 12% error (WPD) rate. Optical scanners and touch screens were 7%. Paper ballot precincts had the lowest (2%). Is the fog lifting? What happened in 2004 should be very clear by now.
In the 2008 NY primary,
zero votes were originally reported for Obama in nearly eighty minority precincts. Many New Yorkers love the levers. They have been led to believe that because levers are not computers, they are not subject to vote-switching and therefore essentially fraud-free. But lever precinct totals are tabulated on central computers which can be programmed to switch votes. And there are no paper ballots to verify the count – except for late provisional and absentee ballots which comprise about 7% of votes cast.
It is interesting to note that since 2000, the Democrats have done 7% better in late (paper) voting than on Election Day (levers). Uncounted votes declined from 700,000 in 1988 to fewer than 200,000 in 2000 — but the trend reversed to over 300,000 in 2004.In Oregon, the ballots are separated from the return envelope before they are inspected. This process ensures confidentiality. The votes are counted on Election Day. A record is kept showing each voter whose ballot has been returned. No expensive voting machines, no corrupted election officials, no long lines, no machine breakdowns. In 1996, over 10% of votes cast were uncounted, but the rate has declined sharply since the switch to mail in 1998.
Oregon mail-in ballots are counted electronically, but there is a paper trail if a hand recount is necessary. In New York, computers also do the counting based on reported Lever totals– but there are no paper ballots to check the count. Levers are used to cast, but not count votes. Lever advocates don’t want to talk about that.No wonder Oregonians are happy with their voting system. Why don't the other 49 states follow suit? They should HAVA look at how Oregon saves a ton of money and how real democracy works.