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Thomas, I'm pretty confident will not change. He's a non-personality who's conservative because that's the typecast he's decided he wants to be. I don't think he's very confident or even really self-aware, I have observed over the years that he's a basically a bureaucrat who needs a set of rules and guidances to help him makes decisions. When he's "on his own", he fades into a follower who stays on script because that's the only thing he knows how to do - and he's done that very well, first with Rehnquist, now with Scalia. I don't think he's as comfortable with Roberts as he was with the other two; he may quit when Scalia does, unless Alito comes out of his shell and starts making a presence. I remember his conformation hearing; my impression of the anger he was showing was because he was being "attacked", it seemed to from frustration that things were not going his way like they were supposed to and that it was taking too long for him to be confirmed.
IMO, Roberts is too afraid to come out of his closet (apologies if he isn't, he really pings my gay-dar) which tends to make him petulant and contrary at the best of times. My opinion is that he knows he has a good gig playing conservative advocate, and he gets a lot of satisfaction telling people what to do and "pissing on their Wheaties" as the saying goes if he feels it can advance his status. Appearances really seem to matter to him.
Alito - there's always something off with him. The weeping he did during his confirmation, the mouthing of "that's not right" during the SotU speech indicates he is the center of his universe, and I don't think he takes well to anything that challenges it. Personally, I can see him being the next Abe Fortis - up for impeachment in the next ten years, if he doesn't quit because he can't "take the heat". I wouldn't put it past him to do something totally, stupidly illegal because he can justify it in his own mind. (Hey, under federal Law, like the Bible, anyone can cite a reason to do anything; whether it's a reasonable, objective justification or just a subjective fantasy justification, is up to the person making the justification...)
Kennedy is a reasonable man if you can find a constitutional argument for your case, so whether or not he'll tend more moderate depends on how well he can respond to the positions of Sotomayor or Steven's replacement.
Just my two and a cracked-half cents.
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