Which of the 13 Dem Senators up for re-election this year are safe?

[cali]

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas
Barbara Boxer of California
Michael Bennet of Colorado
Daniel Inouye of Hawaii
Barbara Mikulski of Maryland
Harry Reid of Nevada
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Chuck Schumer of New York
Ron Wyden of Oregon Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania
Patrick Leahy of Vermont
Patty Murray of Washington
Russ Feingold of Wisconsin

Lincoln's not. No great loss. Boxer's not and that would be a great loss. Bennet's not. Reid's not. Gillibrand's not, Specter's not and Feingold's not.

And that's just the incumbents. A republican will win Indiana. A republican will replace Dorgan. A republican will take Joe Biden's old seat. A republican may well take the Illinois seat.

Not looking good.

[bluestateguy]

1. Doom Doom Doom. Gloom Gloom Gloom.

Go outside and get some sunshine.

[cali]

7. Just came back in.

and this is just the way things look. Not saying they won't get better, but as of right now, we've got some good Senators on the endangered list.

[LaydeeBug]

2. Barbara Mikulski is safe. She's a fighter, and she'll kick your ass.

I'm not kidding. The only thing that'll get her out of office if a nuke. :)

[DCBob]

9. Indeed. She is a bulldog!!

My senator.. LOVE HER!!

[virgogal]

3. Inouye and Leahy should be safe.

[Mojambo]

4. Murray is starting out in good shape

But Dino Rossi is capable of running a REALLY slimy, viciously negative campaign so we'll have to wait and see how that goes.

[Truth2Tell]

6. My view is that Murray is safer

than people are worrying about. But fear gets people motivated so it's OK with me if folks want to worry. Of course if Patty is shifting right and triangulating positions based on fear, that's not a good thing. And sadly she does.

[elocs]

5. Feingold would be safe if Thompson does not run against him.

I think he can beat Thompson, be the question is would his reelection be "safe".

[sjdnb]

15. I heard Leinenkugel is in Thompson out

Mark Belling was absolutely apoplectic about it as Leinenkugel works/worked in the Doyle admin.

[4lbs]

8. No, Boxer is safe. There is no way that Campbell will defeat her.

Rasmussen, which leans so far to the right to be in danger of tipping over, only has Campbell two points behind Boxer in their latest poll.

That means Boxer really has at least an 8 point edge on him.

She also is at least 8 points ahead of Fiorina and DeVore.

[sandnsea]

10. Lincoln, Bennet, maybe Gillibrand and Reid

That's it, the rest are safe and Gillibrand and Reid probably are too. The only reason I add Bennet is because he was appointed, iirc. Incumbents are safe unless they fuck up as badly as Lincoln did.

[zorahopkins]

11. Good Lord, THIS on DEMOCRATIC Underground?

I'm sorry, but I am really surprized to see something like this on DU.

It seems to me to be very, very defeatist ("a republican will win Indiana"!!!???) For heaven's sake, it is APRIL. A lot can happen between now and November.

Perhaps if you would have coupled your apparent acceptance of defeat with a call to re-double our efforts to ASSURE that all Democrats up for re-election would be safe, I would not be reacting this way.

[BzaDem]

13. Cali is right, a Republican will probably win Indiana.

Elsworth is down double digits against Coates and Hostettler. Even Bayh would have had a tough (though winnable) race. Unless the national environment gets much better for the Democrats, we are most likely going to lose Indiana. In fact, I think we are more likely to lose Indiana than Illinois/Pennsylvania/Colorado, three races where the D is also down.

We don't need to ignore reality and put blinders on just because this is Democratic Underground.

[BzaDem]

12. It all comes down to Boxer/Feingold/ Murray/Gillibrand + Lieberman

In the current environment (or one tilted more towards the Republicans) Lincoln/Bennet/Reid/Specter are probably going to lose, and we are probably going to lose open seats in Indiana, Illinois, Delaware, an North Dakota. That leaves it 51D, 49R.

If Boxer, Feingold, Gillibrand, and Muray all win, we are fine.

If Boxer loses, or Thompson gets in the race and defeats Feingold, or Pataki gets in the race and defeats Gillibrand, or Rossi gets in the race and defeats Murray, it becomes 50-50, giving Lieberman the option to become a Republican and change control of the Senate.

If two of those 4 lose, it is over.

Of the four, I have seen recent polls where Boxer beats any of her opponents, Gillibrand beats Pataki, and Murray beats Rossi (though by very small margins). Unfortunately, Thompson seems to be beating Feingold in all recent polls I have seen.

[tritsofme]

14. Inouye, Mikulski, Schumer, Wyden, and Leahy are as safe as can be.

The rest I would order from most safe to least safe:

Murray
Boxer
Gillibrand
Feingold
Specter
Bennet
Reid
Lincoln

Reid and Lincoln are toast. Feingold probably becomes a lot less safe if his opponent is Thompson, Murray's Race may get a bit more competitive if Dino Rossi throws his hat in.