US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

[Subdivisions]

• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."

...snip...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply


Isn't it nice that the U.S. media continues to ignore the serious situation with regard to oil production and depletion? And so do most of you. But that's ok, because you will care soon enough. More than you care about just about any other issue.

[Birthmark]

1. Well, they were right about the Gulf Stream shutting down...

...weren't they?

[Subdivisions]

2. The Gulf Stream hasn't shut down. Do you have a link for that? Also, have

you studied the situation with oil production and discoveries/reserves?

[Birthmark]

3. My point is this:

I distrust dramatic predictions, particularly from military sources.

You can google "Pentagon report gulf stream shutdown". That report was in 2004 or 2005 and predicted the GS would (or perhaps could) shut down in a very few years. As you rightly point out, this hasn't happened.

[Subdivisions]

7. If this military was the only entity warning us about the situation with oil,

I might agree with that point. But they aren't. Here's just one recent report in the largest media outlet for Ireland (their mainstream media), the Irish Times:

Ireland 'among most vulnerable' to peak oil

...snip...

HERE’S A conundrum: restarting global economic growth will, by definition, push up energy costs. Rising energy costs will in turn choke off that economic recovery, leading to a fall in energy prices. Try to restart growth again, and the brick wall of energy costs magically reappears. Repeat ad infinitum.

It is hard to overstate the extent to which our daily lives are subsidised by cheap, plentiful oil. Every 24 hours, Ireland burns around 200,000 barrels. That’s the daily equivalent of the muscle power of 2.4 million men, each working for a full year.

Our entire way of life depends on abundant, inexpensive oil. This era is now drawing to a close. Five years ago, the Hirsch report published by the US department of energy concluded that the world has “never faced a problem” as difficult as peak oil, adding that: “without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary”. Oil peaking will be, it warned, “abrupt and revolutionary”.

The advent of peak oil is, by definition, the end of decades of relentless economic growth, since this dramatic phase in human history has been entirely predicated on ready access to vast amounts of cheap energy.

A recent report from Feasta, the Irish-based Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, gazes into the murky crystal ball of life beyond peak oil. Their document, Tipping Point , concludes that since humanity is entirely dependent on vast and expanding energy inputs, “there is a high probability that our integrated and globalised civilisation is on the cusp of a rapid and near-term collapse”.

...snip...

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0408/1224267889272.html

And here's a recent article in the business section of The Seattle Times website:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/soundeconomywithjontalton/2011488276_drill_baby_drill_the_myth_of_e.html

Google has lots more.

And here are a couple of my posts on the subject:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=8022492

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=8044094

[Birthmark]

8. Yes, oil is a finite resource

This is news to no one. And for anyone that likes the Earth, it's probably a good thing that we run out of oil. The sooner, the better.

[DCBob]

4. Peak oil... its just a matter of time..

We are headed for major global catastrophe unless we find and develop real alternatives to oil.

[Lucian]

5. There are alternatives to oil.

But alternatives don't earn anyone any money.

[DCBob]

6. The "alternatives" aren't good enough and/or not being developed quickly enough..

Oil at $80/barrel is hard to beat.. at least from an economics basis.