Predict something about the next 10 years.

[BurtWorm]

Let's see if we can construct a realistic picture of the life in 2020. I know many will be tempted to predict dystopia, which is fine and plausible enough. But I'd be interested in your making a case for it.

I'll start by predicting something about technology, which I think is pretty inevitable. I'll be surprised if in 2020, every television is not fully integrated with the internet, accessing it mainly through wifi. I think most networks will be streamed via the internet, and this is going to effectively kill the cable industry. This will be a good thing, I think.

Here's a slightly off-kilter corollary prediction: I can see a counterculture (or two) using the remnants of the analog and cable infrastructures to buck the wifi TV juggernaut and connect to exclusive groups.

Another techno prediction: Books in print will become rarer and much more expensive. E-readers will become as ubiquitous as cell phones (might even take the place of some cell phones), and they'll be how we read most of our texts: novels and nonfiction books of the moment, newspapers (I predict they won't lose that anachronistic name for a long time), and magazines. Before these are in everybody's hands, publishers will have figured out how to make money from e-publishing. For newspapers, they'll back to the familiar pay-per-issue or per-subscription rates, but you'll purchase them directly from the e-reader.

This means newsstands and bookstores will start to vanish. But this may also mean niche book stores will resist being killed off. There will always be a demand for books in print, but they will just become much rarer purchases for most people.

[geardaddy]

1. Along the lines of that prediction

I predict it will be harder for authors to keep their copyrights. The copyright will go to the publishing company and the author will only get a fee for writing the book.

[BurtWorm]

8. Do you know Pandora radio?

The guy who started it, Tim Westerberg, I think, had a utopian scheme to get royalties to musicians who were not typically played on radio or other media. Now they pay something like $30 million in royalties a year. I don't remember how much of that goes to the record companies or music publishers, but a substantial portion goes to musicians. I saw him recently at one of Pandora's town meetings, where he said that in the entire history of conventional radio, only about 100,000 songs have ever gone out over the air. Pandora owns 750,000 songs, he said, and since he started the company in 2005 or so, something like 95% of their library has been played, which means vastly more musicians are reaping the benefits of Pandora than ever reaped the benefits of conventional radio.

I think of this because I wonder if publishers will be able to get books from writers under those conditions. I think that would kill them. What would stop writers from setting up their own e-publishing companies, thereby keeping all of their profits for themselves? If publishing becomes more electronic-centered, the case for using a publisher really diminishes.

[geardaddy]

23. That's a good way to look at it.

I think it would be hard to get writers to write for publishers if they didn't get royalties.

I guess I'm coming from a place where my union has seen the outright attempt at theft from authors of what is the Google book project. This is where Google has scanned books and essentially is paying the authors for their rights, but it is an opt out proposition rather than an opt in one. So, if you miss the deadline, you're screwed and you lose the electronic rights to your book.

http://www.mercurynews.com/books/ci_14647600

[BurtWorm]

29. I see what you're saying.

That is cause for alarm if you're a writer, especially with books already in print. It's probably safe to say that in the next 10 years, this Google problem will become gigantic news, something everyone will be aware of.

[Posteritatis]

2. I'd been wondering about such things myself, but can mainly see branching points

I don't know how confidently I could say "X will probably be the case," but there's a bunch of "if X happens, then Y, else Z" sort of thoughts running through my head. For instance, a lot of what I might have to say about the net depends on whether the world continues to lose net neutrality or not. I'm not sold on the death of print and the ubiquity of e-readers, but I might lean that way more if various IP lobbies finally see a proctologist about where their heads are.

In terms of things like audio/video content, I do see professional-quality amateur productions becoming more common by then, and I'm greatly looking forward to that.

[county worker]

3. There will be no middle class.

Just like the Coast Rica I visited several years ago, there will be the wealthy ruling class, the educated class that works for them and the rest of poor laborers working just to make the day,s food, shelter and clothing.

Of course if the left can make some inroads to the government this may not happen.

If you have a scale with the center a zero, the left is liberal and middle class, the right is conservative and no middle class.

The direction toward liberal or conservative also determines whether there will be a middle class or not.

[whattheidonot]

7. definite change

There will be definite change in politics. Which way it changes is up in the air. what we have now is unsustainable. By 2016 something big will give. By then Americans will be bursting for something different. This top-down liberalism is not going to cut it. The war machine will go or will dominate because we cannot have it like this and have a democracy that works. That is already showing .

[moondust]

48. Dirt cheap labor

will continue to grow more plentiful and more accessible through H1B's, illegal immigration, the Internets, and satellite communications--devastating the middle class in advanced countries that allow it to happen (i.e. U.S.-style anything-goes, minimally regulated, free market capitalism) and continuing the return to feudalism.

[zipplewrath]

4. We'll regret much of what we are doing today

Much of what we're doing today, will seem wrong in 10 years. We'll look upon HCR much as we view NAFTA or DADT today. Unions will be history in any large sense, they'll probably morph into some sort of "counter version" of the chamber of commerce. Much less collective bargaining, probably more work in labor representation for individual and local labor disputes.
Net neutrality will be resolved for the worse, the corporations will get control of the internet and it will become a major "pay to play" environment. It will serve to maintain certain current business models such as publishing (which will be predominately e-books), music, and other forms of entertainment.
Government will become under greater control of corporations, there will be at least one more Supreme Court decision giving them even more political power.

The good news.

The power grid will be improved. Electricity will become the preferred energy source for cars, mostly due to cost. There will be better solar based solutions for charging them.

China will improve their currency valuation and it will ultimately impact their manufacturing capacity. They will do it as part of a deal to also get control of carbon emissions, and India will be the primary source of cheap labor, and excess pollution. The EU will become more centralized and have a central bank for all the participating countries.

Far out stuff

We'll consider Iran in much the same vein as we consider Vietnam today. Iraq will be a continuing problem in the area, with either a separate Kurdistan, or a "rebellious province". Afghanistan will be back under some variation of "taliban" control and we'll be "working with or friends in Pakistan to try to address the Afghan issues".

[BurtWorm]

17. If nothing is done to fix the HCR bill, you're probably right about that at least.

The cost of American health care will probably continue to rise and we won't notice because we're so used to and defeated by it. We'll have forgotten that that was what reform was supposed to fix. Thousands of American families will continue to go destitute because of a catastrophic illness. Insurance companies will continue to reap obscene profits.

The only thing that could possibly spoil it for the insurance industry is a technological or cultural revolution that the industry can't survive, similar to the one that will probably kill the cable industry.

Anyone have any ideas?

[Matariki]

5. Agree w/ you about e-readers, but Print On Demand makes books available.

And computers will roll up and be super portable. This will replace tv as well.

This is fun. Will make more predictions later. I can see the future ;-)

[Speck Tater]

6. We will look back fondly to the by-gone days of 24/7 electricity and running water.

Gasoline will be only for the rich, which won't matter a whole lot because the roads will be in terrible shape and travel will be too dangerous any way because of all the "highway pirates" with guns and IEDs, not to mention all the blown bridges. Even if you're well armed, getting from any of the government held green zones into Tea Party Militia territory (TPMZ) will be problematic at best. Without the right red neck street cred you might be accused of being a "godless liberal socialist" which, in the TPMZ, is sufficient grounds for summary execution.

You especially don't want to be in one of the tiny Midwestern green zones, sandwiched between the TPMZ and the growing armies of the OCS (the Onward Christian Soldiers). The peace between the TPM and the OCS is fragile at best, and if the tensions erupt once more into open hostilities places like the Topeka Green Zone or the Dayton Democratic Freehold will be between the crushing jaws of a vice.

[Arctic Dave]

13. Yikes!

Why do I find your prediction the most likely?

[pscot]

15. Road Warrior

The signs of golobal warming and environmental collapse will be a lot clearer. Gasoline will be rationed, either by price or by fiat. Home vegetable gardens will become a practical neccesity. China will experience growing economic and social unrest. Water shortages will be felt globally. Guns will remain extremely popular and the price of ammunition will continue to rise.

[Mother Smuckers]

46. I think you are a {probably incurable} optimist.

:shrug:

[safeinOhio]

9. I plan on driving

my flying boat car.

[closeupready]

10. Ok, lessee: Brazil - the Amazon forest will be 90% destroyed. And its economy

will be very competitive, almost First World.

[DiverDave]

11. I'll turn 63

and STILL be working...

[Hawkowl]

12. The US and China

The US and China after a brief joint military venture will be occupying Iran in order to seize the dwindling oil resources.

[Dr Morbius]

14. I predict the news of the future will be more interactive.

Instead of watching Fox "News" or MSNBC or even the networks, most Americans will be getting their news over the internet, which by then will have eclipsed broadcast and cable in number of viewers. People are going to choose what stories to watch, instead of allowing the news to reach them passively. As a result, voter ignorance will reach even worse levels, as Americans by the millions choose not to listen or watch anything which challenges their assertions or faith-based beliefs.

The Republicans will as a consequence have a stranglehold on power. Americans will look back on the good old days of the Obama Presidency.

[anarch]

16. I'm guessing that any controversy about the peak of oil production

might get cleared up sometime in that timeframe.

[upi402]

18. i will not be in America

and will be in another damn country.

it will be ugly as hell here before then, i think.

[northernlights]

19. climate change will have trumped all eom

We will all have new coastlines and new agricultural growing zones. Some will be fighting for potable water, others drowning in it. My horses will finally provide useful, relatively reliable transportation.

Depending on whether we continue with warming, or the atmosphere becomes so polluted we nosefive into a new ice age, Maine will either host rice paddies or glaciers.

[RT Atlanta]

20. More greenways/pedestrian/bike paths

There will be an increase in the number of greenways interconnecting existing parks, along with more bike and pedestrian walkways - all of which will be included (for the better!) as part of comprehensive transportation planning.

Oh yeah, I will have completed an IronMan tri and a 100 mile trail run! :)

[myrna minx]

21. Wireless electricity similarly envisioned by Tesla -

http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2007/wireless-0607.html

Goodbye wires!
MIT team experimentally demonstrates wireless power transfer, potentially useful for powering laptops, cell phones without cords

magine a future in which wireless power transfer is feasible: cell phones, household robots, mp3 players, laptop computers and other portable electronics capable of charging themselves without ever being plugged in, freeing us from that final, ubiquitous power wire. Some of these devices might not even need their bulky batteries to operate.

A team from MIT's Department of Physics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, and Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies (ISN) has experimentally demonstrated an important step toward accomplishing this vision of the future.

[Speck Tater]

32. Then ten years later it will be discovered that wireless electricty has sterilized the human race.

Birth rates drop to zero and we finally realize how foolish it was to rush whiz-bang technology into widespread use before adequately evaluating the hazards it poses.

[BurtWorm]

33. Fifty years later, the earth breathes a huge sigh of relief

as the last of those annoying Teslafied humans vanishes

[Soylent Brice]

22. ...

or relatively the same, with little subtle changes.

[geardaddy]

27. We're there already.

or nearly there.

[Whisp]

24. my predictions are not near as positive as yours.

I don't think we will be so much engaged on how publishing and information get dispersed or what new gadgets are out there that we won't be able to afford, but on Water and the effects climate change will have on us all in those 10 years.

water wars will make oil wars look like small skirmishes compared.

[Chipper Chat]

25. Children will become fatter and fatter as they lead sedentary lives.

"Recess" disappears from school days. School lunches will be calorie-laden (tater-tots, pizza, burgers, ets:) as that's all the kids will eat due to the Pavlovian commercials they see on TV and websites. Kids will spend 8+ hours daily sitting in front of a computer and the other 8 eating or watching TV. No exercise.

[flvegan]

26. Bush, Cheney and Rove will STILL be free men.

[BurtWorm]

34. Cheney, at least, will probably be dead.

Or floating in a formaldehyde soup in some underground chamber somewhere below Texas.

[flvegan]

35. I don't think something that evil ever dies.

Besides, I'd much rather he lived another 20 years. In prison.

[Ishoutandscream2]

28. The Simpsons will be in season 30

[Hawkeye-X]

30. The 2020 Freepathon

is still continuing from 2014.. Goal not yet met.

Heh.

[left is right]

31. The world will end in 2012 and

Obama will get the blame

[eShirl]

36. We will be annoyed by embedded advertising in our artificially intelligent user interfaces (AIUIs)

The more things change, yadda yadda

[MilesColtrane]

37. Apple will offer the iMplant.

It will have all the current functions of the iPhone/iPod/iPad, but it will be controlled by your mind.

[BurtWorm]

38. Or control your mind?

[MilesColtrane]

40. The NSA backdoor will be mandatory for all computing/communications devices by then.

On the plus side, if you ever get accused of a crime, your lawyer can always argue that it wasn't you. You were hacked.

[mochajava666]

39. Wars over water

There will be world-wide conflicts due to massive refugee influxes across borders caused by global warming reducing land mass and covering islands, and in turn, from diseases and famine spreading across industrial nations bristling with weapons.

There will be a shortages of drinkable water and energy, causing societies to unravel. Fascism will be the standard government model for all countries that wish to survive.

[taught_me_patience]

41. Drilling will happen in ANWR

As the middle class shrinks and oil becomes more expensive... the clammoring will grow louder and louder.

[Subdivisions]

43. By the time oil decline gets bad enough to drill ANWR, you and I

will be tending to our gardens and livestock and will be unable to afford such a luxury as oil. Any oil drilled from ANWR will be confiscated for more important things than you and me, like maintaining the military, police, etc.

[damntexdem]

42. First: the next ten years will last about a decade.

Second: rightwingers will whine a lot.

Third: DU will have lots of disagreements among posters.

Fourth -- hey, how many of these predictions do I need to make?

[Dr Morbius]

47. Um, keep going, and I'll let you know if you come up with something good.

:)
I'm not picking a fight, here, but you made me think of something - and now I have your attention.
:D
Do you really think people are going to be on MBs for the next ten years? I expect texting to mostly replace this form of communication; something between texting and chatroom, anyway. The need for speed will largely create a decline in written language, so sntncs wll luk lik ths.

What do you think?

[conscious evolution]

44. This nation will have ceased to exist

as it is now if we continue down this same path.
The rest of the planet will get sick and tired of our bullshit and will use EMP nuke blasts to shut us down.

[HopeHoops]

45. Limbaugh will become one with a triple bacon extra cheese death burger and explode in a massive fart

Wait, he does that every day on the radio. Never mind.

[maxsolomon]

49. the following people will have passed on:

Limbaugh
Cheney
Ratzinger
Scalia
99% of the Tea Party members

[wiggs]

50. We will be STUNNED by how wasteful and inefficient Americans were in the prior

50 years. Plastic water bottles, packaging, single drivers in cars, 20 MPG, incandescent lights, short lifespan of goods, disposable economy, consumerism, lack of reuse and recycling of good, lawns, 8,000 sf mansions, 1 hour commutes, etc.....heck, I'm stunned NOW at our naive approach to energy and goods.

It will be a sea-change in attitude...which means that we'll do a much better job at efficiency and sustainability.