All Aboard The V-Train

[gateley]

More and more skeptics are acknowledging the economic recovery.

Eighteen months ago, as the Panic of 2008 took hold, we found ourselves almost alone. We believed in a V-shaped economic recovery (Velocity And The V-Shaped Recovery http://www.forbes.com/2008/10/20/money-recession-recovery-oped-cx_bw_rs_1021wesburystein.html) . Some argued that we were just talking our book (First Trust manages and supervises more than $30 billion in assets), many said we didn't understand the depth of the financial crisis and others thought we were plain nuts.

It was lonely then, but not anymore. The V-train is gathering more passengers. As the economic data clearly trace out a V-shaped recovery, some previously skeptical pundits are standing on the platform (or at least the TV screen) shouting "all aboard" as often as they can. Others are slowly raising their forecasts of growth, even job growth. The New York Times asserts "the economy appears to be in a cyclical recovery that is gaining strength." There are lots of seats on the train, so everyone should come aboard.

But some who didn't get on board last year just can't seem to make the leap. One forecaster who never believed in the "V"--in fact never believed in any recovery at all--recently said the V-shaped recovery is "over." We'll take this as a backhanded method of saying our forecast has been right.

Another, who originally predicted a slow, new-normal-type recovery, rebuffed a recent accusation that he was bearish by saying, "I think we are in a … I think our recovery is strengthening and will be a strong one." In other words, he wants to get on the train but doesn't like its name. He just can't bring himself to say "V."

That's OK: There is still upside to the economy and the equity markets, so all this spreading cheer and optimism will hopefully convince more people to get on board.

Unfortunately, there is a group of people who still haven't arrived at the station--mostly because they confuse politics with economic forecasting. Many Republicans and quite a few conservative television commentators are still trying to use the Clinton/Carville method of winning elections--"It's the economy, stupid." As a result, they keep telling anyone who will listen that the Obama agenda is going to kill the economy--right now.

/snip

Page 2 at: http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/12/recovery-economy-politics-opinions-columnists-brian-wesbury-robert-stein.html?partner=daily_newsletter

[Exultant Democracy]

1. Was it Maddow who called it the Bikini economy?

[gateley]

2. I've missed so much of Rachel lately, so I don't know - but it sure sounds like something

she would coin! You've intrigued me -- I'm going to go look.

Edit -- YES! The bikini graph (I guess it could be considered a "V") -- I DID see that!

Rachel's Bikini Graph:

[Captain Hilts]

3. GREAT article! nt

[DCKit]

4. It might look like a "V", but it's got "W" stamped all over it. n/t