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Edited on Tue Jan-30-07 02:26 PM by Peace Patriot
...and also on the global front, I don't see how Bush/Cheney can get away with this (bombing or nuking Iran). The criminals may THINK they can. And I've no doubt they have some toady commanders willing to trump up a "Gulf of Tonkin" incident or two. But consider: China gets a lot of its oil from Iran. China is a nuclear power. Bombing or nuking of Iran, followed by occupation by U.S. troops (what troops?, by the way--it's a big stretch just to get 20,000 more into Iraq, on multiple tours of duty, using untrained or poorly trained people, including National Guard and reserves!), with what can only be expected to be a pitched battle between what dregs of the army go into Iran and its enraged citizenry, will impact all surrounding countries--two of them with nukes (Pakistan and Israel)--Turkey, Russia, southern Europe (Greece, Italy, Spain), and north Africa. It will be a war and a catastrophe like no other that has been seen in that region, since WW II, and could turn into a conflagration of immense proportions, impacting--and even destroying--all life on earth.
Does prosperous China, with its booming economy, want its oil to fall into U.S. hands, or major disruption in the region? Does Italy want to be downwind of nuclear fallout, or does anybody in the region? Does Turkey want a million refugees pouring over its border? Think it through. Bombing/invasion/occupation of Iran is in NO ONE's interest. It is NUTS.
And, last but not least, do the American people want to be dragged into a Mideast-wide war, with a $10 TRILLION debt already staring us in the face? Would we put up with a Draft in order to wage a war that 70% of the people already oppose--with a whopping 84% opposed to any U.S. participation in a widened Mideast war (poll posted here at DU last summer)? There would be an insurrection.
Bush/Cheney, with their 28% approval rating--or whatever it is (and whatever the corporate news monopolies say it is, you can be sure it's LESS)--CANNOT do this. They have NO support, at home or abroad. All they have is firepower, and that is not enough.
So, consider another possibility: That the assembling of the naval forces is cover for withdrawal from Iraq--and in particular to prevent Iran from taking over Iraq, when US troops are pulled out. This scenario also makes more sense as to Bush/Cheney's primary motive (in all they do)--greed. They've been holding US soldiers in Iraq to get the oil contracts signed, and, once that is done, then Exxon-Mobile & brethren will deploy their own mercenaries (trained and funded by US tax dollars) to defend the oil fields, and US naval gunships, etc., will remain there as a threat, to defend the Iraq puppet government and the contracts. US ground troops will be withdrawn, while the fascist political forces at home regroup, and get themselves another kind of "war president"--one with the political capital to achieve a Draft, and maintain the military budget at high levels--by throwing a few sops at the poor and middle class (minimum wage, etc.). Thus, a War Democrat (Hillary?) will ride into the White House on the strength of the anti-war movement (troops out of Iraq, victory for peace), but, like LBJ in 1964, with a hidden war agenda for the future: control of Iraq oil, and prevention of an Iraq/Iran alliance (also defense of Israel). Once the U.S. is in a better position--financially, troopwise and politically--to continue the war against self-rule* in the Middle East, THEN we will have "Gulf of Tonkin II"--the trumped up incident with Iran that sparks the Big War.
*(Note: We're not fighting the kings and fatcat sultans of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE--we're fighting the people with the most secular and democratic ideas, of which the "Islamic REPUBLIC of Iran" is now the icon. It may have a religious component--Islam cements shattered communities together--but what was happening in Iraq, and what is happening in Iran, is far closer to notions of self-determination, the sovereignty of the people, and the welfare of the people (sharing of the oil wealth), than what is happening in the monarchies that the Bush Cartel is allied with. And that is the saddest irony of all. The Iraqis and the Iranians are the most potentially progressive people among Israel's neighbors!)
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