Since we're already talking about oil production:
Saudi Arabia’s long-standing status as a swing producer of crude oil could be drawing to a close according to the head of national oil company Saudi Aramco.
Global oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer alongside Russia, will start to wane in the coming years as domestic demand surges and spare capacity drops, warned Khalid al-Falih, chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco in a speech published on the company's website.
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VTB Capital says that, although Saudi Arabia knows it is running out of oil, Saudi Aramco is already part of one of the most "remarkable" developments of 2009, after admitting it has started exploration in the Red Sea and not the Persian Gulf.
"Saudi Arabia is running out of oil and Ghawar field will exhaust itself in the end," says Kryuchenkov. "It has been producing oil since 1948, which is unprecedented for any field and still accounts for around 55–60% of exports. The decline will accelerate from here and I think these are more immediate concerns than its consumption growing. As a rule of thumb in the oil industry, Saudi Arabia is seen as the following: a 5% decline in production and a 2% rise in consumption is approximately 15% decline in net oil exports. However, this is not the case just yet."
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http://www.risk.net/energy-risk/news/1602907/saudi-arabia-global-oil-exports-wane-post-2010Peak oil is the point at which a well reaches maximum production and then begins an irreversable delcine. It has happened in every depleted oil well in history. When extrapolated to GLOBAL oil production,
peak production for conventional crude oil occured in 2005 and has been declining by 2.1% year-over-year (YOY) for the past five years. It is accepted premise in the oil-watching community that once Saudia Arabia's production begins to decline, the peak of global oil production will have been reached and cumulative world oil production will decline. The decline in world oil production is expected to accelerate to as much as 8% YOY by 2012-2014. A consensus is forming that net oil availablility will reach zero sometime around 2037.
Though there will still be lots of oil left in 2037, it won't be available for a trip across the state to grandma's house for Christmas, or for a quick trip down to the corner convenience store for a Coke and a bag of Dorito's, if those things even still exist by then.