Hiroshima Bombing: August 6, 1945
Soviet Invasion: August 8, 1945
Nagasaki Bombing: August 9, 1945
Japan Offers to talk about Surrender August 10, 1945 (But this was JUST an offer to talk NOT an offer to surrender)
Surrenders: August 14, 1945. This is when Japan finally accepted defeat and surrendered. Note is is FIVE days after the Second Bombing, EIGHT days after the First bombing and 6 days after the Soviet Invasion.
The real reason Japan Surrender was the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria. Up until that invasion Japan had the hope that the US and USSR would get into a fight over Europe and each would than negotiate with Japan for assistance against the other. In such a situation Japan could pull something out of their total defeat.
People tend to forget HOW many people died in the March 1945 Tokyo Fire bomb raid. The deaths clearly exceeds the number of people killed do to the Nagasaki bombing and probably exceeds Hiroshima (Do to propaganda since WWII, the Fire bomb raid deaths tend to be discounted and Hiroshima’s deaths magnified to magnify the effect of the atomic bombing. Both Japan and the US have BOTH adopted this policy for different reasons. Japan to show its suffering from being bombed, and the US to show the power of Atomic Weapons).
In reports from early 1945 the US had already decided that Japan would NOT surrender until the USSR invaded Manchuria and destroyed the myth of a war occurring between the US and USSR. This is AFTER the US already knew it had the Uranium bomb and would have the Plutonium bomb by August 1945. The US even rushed a Plutonium bomb to be shipped out BEFORE it was tested in July 1945 (Both the Uranium and Plutonium bombs were shipped out on the same ship). Thus the US was planning to drop both Bombs BEFORE the Soviet Invasion and thus before the expected surrender of Japan do to the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria (The US knew it would take the Russians at least three months to move their army from Germany to Japan. Germany surrendered May 7, 1945, three months later was August 7, 1945).
One of the problems the US Air Force had in August 1945 was the fact it had no more targets to hit with its firebombs. The Commander of the Air Force attacking Japan asked permission to bomb the five cities he had been forbidden to Bomb (These had been reserved for Atomic Bombing but no one told the Air Force units attacking Japan of that fact). The main reason for this restriction was that the Pentagon wanted to be able to show the full effect of the atomic bombs without having to consider previous damage caused by previous conventional bombings. Five Japanese cities were reserved as targets (The other three would have been hit in November when the next three A-bombs would be ready, in time for the invasion of the Japanese Home Islands, those atomic bombings would occur as another fire bomb raid on Tokyo which the US had already decided to drop Gas bombs with the firebombs).
Even after the Hiroshima and Nagasaki attacks, many Japanese leaders did NOT want to surrender. Many Japanese leaders believed that Japan could endue these additional A-bombing. Furthermore the Japanese had used Gas in China, and knew that some American Commanders wanted to use Gas on Japan for neither the US nor Japan had signed the treaty banning gas warfare. The Japanese high command actually told its troops NOT to use gas, even if the US used gas on them. This order seems to have been issued knowing US Allies had signed a treaty banning gas warfare and could object to US use, but the treaty permitted Gas to be used by a nation that had signed the treaty as a retaliatory weapon. Thus the Japanese High Command was counting on British and French resistance to the us of Gas and thus the order NOT to use gas even if gas was used on Japanese troops.
Lets also remember that by August 1945 Japan was already under heavy attack. Japan was being bombed with firebombs by B-29s. It was being attacked by Carrier based Airplanes. Even US Battleships (Including battleships that had been at Pearl Harbor) were firing at coastal installations (and anything within range of the Battleships 16 inch guns i.e. 20 miles). This was occurring all summer long BEFORE the Atomic bomb dropping. Collectively these attacks were killing more people, and doing more damage then the two atomic bombs did. The US Invasion plan was to land on or about November 1945 and then take just 1/3 of the southern most Japanese main islands and then mass B-17s, B-24s, B-25s, B-26s, British Lancasters and any other Allied medium to long range bomber to bomb everything between the 1/3 of the island the US would take and Tokyo. Three more atomic bombs would be dropped (if finished by then), Tokyo would be gassed all at the same time. Then around March 1946 the US would invade the Main island.
The US plans did not count on Korean being Soviet occupied (and by October 1, 1945 it would have been, The Soviets were traveling that fast through Manchuria, they would have had to stop on the Korean Border for their supplies to catch up, but that was in their plans and as soon as they were re-supplied the Red Army would have moved into Korea where it had massive level of support). The US plan also did not take into consideration the Soviet plan to invade the northern most Japanese main island on or about November 1, 1945 (It was the weakest held of the five main islands).
Thus the Atomic Bombing had little impact on the reasons Japan Surrender, the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria meant that the US and USSR would work together in the post-war era and Japan could not play one against the other and stay free from both. Furthermore by August 15, 1945 it was clear nothing but the Japanese Sea was going to stop the Russian advance. The Japanese were seeing their worse nightmare coming true, a communist run Japan. Japan had had an effective Communist party till the early 1930s, when the right wing in Japan started to suppress them (and kill off their leaders by assassination). The communist party had been suppressed but not destroyed and as the only surviving party/political group, it was in the best position to take over if the Russian Army reached the Tokyo. This was clear by August 15th and the only way out was to surrender to the Americans at that point, agreeing to an American Only occupation. Japan and the US even agreed to this as to Korea, but the Japanese Commander in Korea told the Americans he could NOT maintain order given the Koran hatred of the Japanese and that the US would have to send troops to occupy Seoul within days of the Surrender, so US troops were landed at Inchon to hold Inchon and Seoul and what later became South Korea, the Red Army was permitted to take the rest of Korea for they were going to do so anyways.
As I wrote, during the 1930s the Japanese had adopted a severe form of Fascism. They thought nothing of killing any and all opposition. Thus by the time of WWII the only organized opposition within Japan was the Communists and their Cell organization. The Head of the Japanese Communists was living in Moscow. Thus the Japanese right wing Government was looking at Soviet Troops across the strait separating Japan from Korea by no later than the First of October (The Red Army reached Port Arthur by September 1st and was entering Korea by that date). If the Japanese Government did not Surrender on August 14th, 1945 they were looking at Soviet Troops in the Home Islands in any invasion set for November (Which the Japanese Military also calculated when the US would invade). If Japan surrendered in August Soviet Troops would be tied up in Manchuria till October and thus the US would be the sole country to occupy Japan. The US hated Communists as much as the Japanese Right Wing so the US would NOT put the Japanese Communist party in charge of Japan (But the Soviet Union would, or at least in the Soviet Occupied sections of Japan). Thus the WWII Japanese Government preferred occupation by the US than a joint US-USSR occupation. To get a US Only Occupation that meant surrendering in August (Which the Japanese did).
My point here is that the real cause for the Surrender of Japan was the Soviet Invasion of Manchuria. Even if NO A-bombs had been dropped the Japanese would still have surrendered on August 15, 1945. If the Japanese waited the Japanese were facing an joint US-USSR occupation when the Japanese preferred sole Occupation by the US. Thus the fact that the US dropped TWO bombs is meaningless, the US did not have to drop even one AND THE US KNEW IT. The sole purpose of the A-bombing was to impress the Russians of the Power of the US not to get the Japanese to surrender.
Thus come August 1945, the only Japanese leader in opposition to the then ruling military clique was staying in Moscow, and the subsequent invasion of Manchuria by Russia, starting on the 90th day after the end of the war in Europe (Stalin had promise to do so to FDR). It is an interesting History, the US dropped the A-bomb on Hiroshima on August 8th, 1945, the Russians started their invasion on August 9th, the US Dropped the Second bomb on August 10th, and it still took the Japanese Government till August 15th to Surrender. The traditional western view was Japan surrendered do to the A-bombing, the Russian moved in after the Japanese had already decided to give up. The problem the facts do NOT support such history, even the US Army thought it would be tough for Stalin to move enough units from Europe to Manchuria within 90 days. We dropped the A-bomb on the 89th day to try beat the Russians, the Russian launched their attack the next day, but it is clear it had been planned over the previous 90 days, including getting the troops, equipment and supplies to support the invasion. Thus the Soviet Invasion was NOT the Soviets just moving into as Japan was defeated by the US, but a full scale movement planned while BEFORE the A-bombing.
A good argument can be made that the invasion of Manchuria killed any remaining hoped of Japan against the US (i.e. the US and the USSR would come to blows in Europe and Russia could give Japan the two things it needed in 1945, fuel and pilots). This was more an hope then anything actually planned on, for once you view the situation the stupidity of it becomes clear, but by 1945 the Japanese leadership was looking at desperate situation and grasping any any straw it could image. The Russian Invasion killed most of those hopes, more so then the A-bombing. Once it became clear Russia would enter what is now North Korea by September 1st, and take all of Korea by October 1st, Japan was looking at a combined US-USSR invasion (OR worse, dual invasions) by November 1st, 1945. Given that the only Japanese leader NOT tied in with the Military Rulers of the 1930s and 1940s was sitting in Moscow, the Japanese Leaders were looking at a Communist future, so they surrendered to the Americans to prevent that from happening. Russians were still in Manchuria on August 15th, but the Japanese Army had already been destroyed and they was nothing Japan could do to stop the Russian short of the Japanese sea, and not even there without American Assistance.
http://www.emayzine.com/lectures/JAP1930.html1921 Assassination of a Japanese Prime Minster:
http://www.ndl.go.jp/modern/e/cha3/description10.html1931 attempted assassination of the Japanese Prime Minster:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamaguchi_OsachiMarch 5th, 1932 Assassination of a left wing political leader:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_TakumaThe May 15, 1932 Assassination of the Japanese Prime Minster by the Japanese Right Wing:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_15th_Incident1936 Assassination of a former Prime Minster, but by 1936 Fiance Minster:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takahashi_KorekiyoThis was part of the February 26, 1936 incident, where many politicians were killed:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_26_IncidentThe "League of Blood Incident" a 1930 incident:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Blood_IncidentMore on the 1930s and Japan:
http://books.google.com/books?id=yadHD-aCo_cC&pg=PA268&...