Does a Clinton/Obama ticket greatly expand the electorate?

[PDittie]

... carrying them -- and many other Democrats down the ballot -- to victory?

See, there's this YouTube of Dick Morris on Faux (Shamity and Combover) making this claim. It's really the only intelligent thing he said:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWemSCU9QJ0

Now here's the deal -- and for full disclosure, I was a volunteer for Clark in 2004, and am leaning Edwards at the moment ...

I have shied away from Hillary and Barack for a variety of reasons, one of which was their (perceived by me) toxicity to downballot Democrats, particularly in Texas, where I live and where we could use all the help we can get in electing some of ours. But I actually can buy this premise of Morris': that there are 80 million people who did not vote in 2004 despite the largest turnout (in raw numbers, not as a percentage, of course) in history; that they are predominantly minority and female, and that some combination of both Clinton and Obama increases the electorate by a minimum of 10% of that 80 million -- 90% of those or greater voting Democratic all the way down.

So what's wrong with this picture? Anything, or nothing?

[AlinPA]

1. There are a lot of good combinations with people we have; Clinton-Clark or Clark-Clinton

Edwards-Vilsack Clark-Vilsack might be better viz a viz increasing male voters. There is still a strong anti-black, anti-women streak in 'murcans. Absolutely too early to tell. The primaries are a long way off.

[PDittie]

8. You make nearly the same point

The motivation of the opposition precludes a win by either Clinton or Obama alone (IMHO), and we get swamped downballot. Our Congressional majorities are greatly endangered.

But both of them at the top of the ballot swings the advantage back to us, overcoming the backlash. Or so the theory goes.

It's hard for me to agree with you that a white male helps Democrats with white male voters. (FWIW, I'm a white male.)

[AlinPA]

23. I'll think about your last point. I'm thinking that the Hillary-Obama ticket would not

help to draw those independents who are still tentative about women and blacks in leadership. Aside, they would never draw a republican or evangelical-fundamentalist vote. The media will determine who our candidates are and they can destroy any one they want to and are working very hard on doing it to Obama and Hillary. They already have him pinned down as a trained Muslim terrorist.

[phillysuse]

2. I heard that same talking point from Cong Rob Andrews

that the millions of minority and women voters who do not vote will be inspired to turn out by Hillary-Obama and that turnout will be the key to a Democratic victory in 2008.

I'm not sure I buy that. I'm a woman and I don't support Hillary and don't think that women will necesarily vote by gender. I can't say how Obama is resonating in the black community.

[pnwmom]

5. It's not just a question of how Obama resonates in the black community.

It's how he resonates among voters overall.

It could be that his support, at least initially, may actually be higher among other ethnic groups than among blacks. But in the end, I would expect that he would draw votes well from all parts of the Democratic spectrum.

[Alamom]

9. Maybe... I think they will run to vote for an experienced, intellegent

woman who is very capable of doing the job.

I expect to see some women voting gender due to so many, currently and in the past, spending their lives working for equal rights & equal representation in government.


It's been a long time coming. I remember when it was not even a "possibility" as do many others and these age groups are(still) considerably large blocs of voters. Party lines will be crossed.

[PDittie]

12. Yes I agree

The typical non-voter or first-time voter isn't going to vote issues. They simply aren't that informed. They will vote for a face.

[Alamom]

16. I was not speaking of the uninformed or issue ignorant. The face,

for those I reference, would need to have a brain and this particular face, does.

[PDittie]

19. That's actually the only thing

that matters (as regards this posting).

Do you think that enough non-voters will be motivated to cast a ballot for some minority exclusive ticket -- let's throw in Richardson as a Hispanic motivator, so any combination of him, Hillary, or Barack but no white guys -- to overcome the expected increase in the Republican "anti-" vote?

[Alamom]

26. I didn't realize a woman on the ticket was considered Minority Exclusive.

I was under the impression women outnumbered men (voting) in the last election....the first time since 1984. (ironic)

With more voting in the mid-terms and hopefully even more in 08.

Looks to me like a trend of non-voting women registering and/or voting. This could be a fluke, but it certainly looks like women are looking for change and they are going out to vote to get it.

[PDittie]

27. In the post preceding

I explained that I did not consider women a minority, except in terms of their numbers in our current representation in political offices.

So you believe that Hillary draws more of the typical non-voter (those also being mostly women)? If so, do you think she helps enough to counter the backlash?

[Alamom]

29. I believe it is very possible & likely, but she just announced &

there is no way to know (for sure) who she will draw or what she will help.

I believe she will get a lot of votes, I always have. JMO.

Since you are speaking in the present tense, this discussion should be continued a little closer to or during the primaries.



Sorry I missed the post preceding

[izzie]

3. I do not want another Clinton in the WH. No Bush either.

Obama is fine as far as I can tell.I wish to see all the crooks from the Watergate days and RR days just gone. Americans have had enough of the whole group and Clinton was a lawyer for the govt. at the time. But ruling families are just bad for the USA. I hope all Clinton's money does not get her in even I think she can not win if she runs.

[PDittie]

7. Oh I don't either

I'm quite likely to vote Green or Indy if that's the top of the ticket, in fact.

But I do not think there are enough people who think as I do that would prevent the Dems from winning, given the accuracy of the scenario above. Since my ballot would be straight Democratic from there on down, I would possibly be the "typical" progressive voter.

[izzie]

15. I am on the books as Green and vote Dem but not for this

We must move that whole group out of our govt. Dem. and GOP seem to smell bad if they are from that age of our govt. One can understand why Carter did not stay around. He did not fit in with the endless greed for power and money.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

4. Predicting the future is tricky business ...

Morris' claim is that a Clinton/Obama ticket will motivate an extra 10% of Black, Hispanic, and Single Female voters to get to the polls. This may be true, though I don't see the reason for the Hispanic motivation over any other Democratic ticket.

It could also backfire by turning off more traditional or centrist Democratic voters, who might be more excited over a ticket led by Edwards or Gore. Not that they'd vote Republican or Independent, just that they might stay home.

It could also backfire by turning on Republican voters, uniting the centrist and rightist factions into an effective get-out-the-vote effort.

Strangely, if the war keeps going for another two years, it probably helps the Democrats, ensuring a sweep of Congress and the Presidency. Peace would be bad news, in terms of the elections.

I just think there are better tickets than Clinton/Obama, easier tickets to sell in the general election.

[PDittie]

10. I can go along with that

And usually primary voters are more liberal (if you believe the corporate media), which makes Hillary unpalatable for most of us on DU.

It seems to me that the GOP slime machine will be operating at full capacity no matter what, and that a minority counterweight helps us weather the inevitable shitstorm.

So advancing your idea relative to Hispanic turnout, would Bill Richardson combined with either Clinton or Obama be the catalyst that increases turnout enough so that the ticket has long coattails?

I'm not trying to contest people's preferences, I just want to know if a theory of minorities at the top helps us or not.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

25. I doubt that it would help

I don't think "minorities at the top" helps. I would hope it doesn't hurt, though.

Hillary isn't exactly "minority", she's white and perceived as privileged. I don't think she will "ring" in minority communities like Big Dog did. She might be able to ride Big Dog's coat-tails, if her sincerity doesn't fall flat.

Repubs will keep Obama's race "subtle". They'll come full-steam at his inexperience, youth, lefty politics, and Islamic education.

I'm not much of a political theorist, especially about motivating people to vote. I don't understand "not voting". I just vote.

[PDittie]

28. Aha

The Bill factor at work with minorities (and women). A real difference in the base turnout. Had not considered that, either.

[babylonsister]

6. I'm a woman and Clinton won't get my vote because she's a woman.

She will get my vote if she wins the primary, but that's the only way. IMO it's way too early to consider anyway.

[PDittie]

17. But do you think that

minority women who have not voted before would cast a ballot for Hillary on that basis alone? And would enough of them do so to overcome the anti-Hillary, anti-woman Republican backlash?

[babylonsister]

18. Hard for me to say, PDittie. I know I can't just vote based on a person's

gender, and I wonder if the name 'Clinton' might prove to be a deficit for some. OTOH, Bill Clinton has been a champion for minorities, so that might work in her favor.
I just don't know. I am sort of hoping she doesn't get far enough to find out, because we need some new blood instead of another dynasty.

[natrat]

11. i think they both suck as canidates-and the media thing is creepy

maybe i am wrong-america wont elect a black or a woman-and this whole media push recognizes that

[PDittie]

14. Again, I don't disagree

I'm trying to think like someone who isn't 10% as plugged as anyone on this forum.

The corporate media will participate gleefully in the sliming of whomever we nominate; it will just be more coarse and ugly with a minority (in this case I consider a woman a minority in terms of political representation, not population).

Given that non-voters probably get what little information they may use to vote for President from the likes of Faux News, I still am uncertain as to whether that helps us or hurts us in this circumstance. I actually don't think the media's help or harm matters enough.

[marmar]

13. I think Obama would definitely increase the turnout of young voters...black, white, Asian, Latino...

or whatever. He definitely seems to be the candidate of choice among the under-30s of all races that I talk to, no contest.

[PDittie]

20. Yeah, there's that

which I had not considered.

Of course that old saw about getting the MTV generation to the polls has held as much water as the one about blooming Hispanic turnout (especially in the last cycle).

So I'm beginning to gradually talk myself out of the idea that this is a good thing, even if it originally sounded intriguing. That didn't take long.:)

[Nimrod2005]

21. Yes...big BIG time....nt

[OHdem10]

22. As many such as Kos and other Websites

have pointed out very carefully and discreetly.

I will not be discreet. There are states in which
a Hillary or an OBama will hurt our down
ballot candidates. Put Hillary and Obama
together and-------. Is this fair? Heck No.
Life is not fair.

Have you forgotten some our new candidates had to
distance themselves from our party. This may
be improving and will change with time.

[Alamom]

24. Got a link?