Why Obama Is Still the Favorite in 2012

[Scurrilous]

Hispanic voters hold the balance of power—and Republicans aren't winning their support.

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"Republicans feel heartened by President Obama's standing in recent polls, which show that only a minority of Americans want him re-elected in 2012. But savvy Democratic analysts look at the same numbers and confidently predict another victory when the president seeks his second term. A breakdown of voter sentiment by race can help clarify the apparent contradiction.

According to a revealing poll from Quinnipiac University (covering 2,181 registered voters in late July), only 36% of American voters would support Mr. Obama against an unnamed Republican candidate "if the 2012 election were held today." The main reason for the president's performance in this survey is his pathetic standing among self-identified white voters: Only 28% of the nation's demographically dominant racial group plans to back him for a second term.

Republicans look at those numbers and say there is no way that Mr. Obama can recover without bringing about a major turnaround with the white majority. Yet Democrats point to the figures and argue that the president will safely win a second term even with this dismal performance in the white community—as long as he replicates his 2008 popularity among African-Americans, Latinos and Asians. They also believe he may do even better among Latinos and Asians when he runs in 2012."

<snip>

"The Quinnipiac survey indicates that Mr. Obama still enjoys huge popularity among people of color, winning his trial heat against an unspecified Republican 44 to 1 among blacks (87% to 2%) and nearly 2 to 1 among Latinos (49% to 26%). In other words, the president maintains his near unanimous support in the black community and has dipped only slightly among Hispanics, where he drew a commanding 67% of the vote in 2008.

Only 65% of Latino voters expressed a candidate preference in the survey's trial heat. That means if Mr. Obama can sway the bulk of the 35% of Latinos who say they "don't know" or are currently uncommitted, the president will replicate his victory formula from 2008. Undecided Hispanic citizens, representing as many as three million votes in the next election, may hold the balance of power in a competitive race.

These numbers help to explain the president's current position on immigration reform and his efforts to block Arizona's tough new immigration law. That legislation is overwhelmingly resented among Latino voters: 66% of Hispanics say they disapprove of it, and 71% say they don't want a similar law in their own states. By nearly 2 to 1 (59% to 32%), these Latino voters want immigration reform to emphasize "integrating illegal immigrants into American society" over "stricter enforcement." This is in stark contrast to both white voters and black voters, who strongly prefer "stricter enforcement."

The administration and its strategists reason that nothing they do on illegal immigration will undermine the enthusiastic support for the president in the black community, or drive his popularity lower among whites. With only 28% of white voters currently committed to backing Mr. Obama for re-election, his standing is already near rock bottom.

But if the Democrats can use the immigration debate to drive the president's numbers even higher among Latinos than in 2008, they can't lose. Viewed another way, if Republicans continue to conduct the immigration debate in a way that drives their numbers even lower among Latinos than in 2008, they can't win. Talking about changing the Constitution to eliminate birthright citizenship, for instance, may bring short-term gains, but it will produce disastrous long-term results in the key voting bloc that is likely to decide the next presidential race."

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[griffi94]

1. it's going to depend on who the gop runs

if they run palin. obama wins in a walk.
if they run romney, it'll be tougher as he'll draw from the middle of the road swing voters.

[depakid]

2. Given the probable state of the economy, if they run an ostensibly competent and moderate candidate

Obama's a one term president.

And ironically, it would be the whole hopey changey thing that does it.

(of course, that's a big if- and given the administration's disdain for its own core constituencies- one that they're banking on).

Me, I've seen too much in politics to make that assumption.

[Political Tiger]

3. K & R! n/t

[saltpoint]

4. If he is not sufficiently Left for some he is most certainly

inspirational to many, including the demographic groups cited in this piece.

It allows a handsome arithmetic for President Obama, in that he has room for several missteps, and it means his Puke opponent has almost no room for error.

If Obama seeks a second term it's unlikely he'll need to waste resources fending off a primary challenge, while the GOP primary trail looks like several miles of blood and slander.

So he has a significant wind at his back even before he has even begun to hit the campaign trail.

Advantage Obama.