You May Not Want To hear This, But Ds Are Going To Do Just Fine In November

[stopbush]

The tide is with us. 10 reasons for hope:

1. NBC/WSJ poll finds only 24% of Americans think Congressional Rs are doing a good job. The same poll found 33% of Americans approving of the Ds in Congress. Not great, but 37% better than Rs.

2. Ds are showing up at the polls in heavier numbers than Rs in 2010

3. Ds are demolishing Rs in fund raising. The only $ the Rs have is from rich candidates who will pay their own way

4. Incumbents are being re-elected at their normal rate in 2010. There is no anti-incumbent fever in the country

5. Majority of Americans don't like the tea baggers, nor do they like their political spokespeople like Palin and Angle

6. There are more registered Ds in the country than Rs

7. Rs are scraping the bottom of the barrel in who to scapegoat, moving from immigrants to attacking working people and the unemployed

8. Obama continues to win legislative victories

9. All things considered, it's the Ds who are energized this cycle, not the Rs

10. Obama hasn't even started campaigning for D candidates. He will be in full campaign roar by October, and the Rs have no one to put up against him.

[EFerrari]

1. Where are you getting your #s for turnout?

I thought I read that the Dem turn out in CT was half of what it was. If that's wrong, I'd love to know.

[saracat]

6. I asked about that as well. I have access to the various election data bases

and none of them support that premise. Most activist have been trained to understand that the Dem vote is really hard to GOTV. Dem startegist always pray for good weather because even in the closest of election Dems tend to saty home rather than vote. And there are now huge numbers of Indies who are the largest growing group of voters. And while their might be more Dems then R's nationwide, they are in clusters, and there may now be Indies than in either Party.

[EFerrari]

8. I've been thinking of you working that campaign.

So glad Rachel did that segment. Hope it helps some.

[breadandwine]

10. Correct. Dem turnout for CT was an appalling 23 percent.

Democrats are TOTALLY DEMORALIZED AND APATHETIC and that Bozo Gibbs just blew it big time by sh*tting on the Democratic base and everybody is pissed off at him and threatening to stay home on our side.

Nobody on our side has any enthusiasm to vote because the White House is totally corporatist.

We just went through the worst environmental disaster in history and the White House was talking about BP as "our partner." All this F*CKING PALSY WALSY with the corporations. We could have used the Gulf oil disaster to burn the GOP at the stake but instead we sucked up to the corporations.


Midterms are won by enthusiasm as only a small number of voters bother to vote when the presidency is not up for grabs.

Right now the only people energized to vote are the goopers.





PERIOD.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[EFerrari]

17. So was our turnout better than the wingnuts or was CT a wake up call?

I'm not trying to be contentious. If you have different numbers, I'd just like to see them.

[breadandwine]

33. Awful lot of words and intentions you've put on me without any basis.

I've worked like a dog for Democratic candidates all my life. Have you?

How old are you?

And you pick an odd example, California. Right now Boxer is trailing Carly Fiorina. So much for your confidence level.

The fact that you need to delude yourself about Democratic enthusiasm in order to maintain yourself shows how insecure you are about the election.

What if you found out that Democratic voters really are NOT enthusiastic about voting?

Would you then sulk off into a corner and not vote?

You seem to think that UNLESS Democrats other than you are energized you can't vote yourself.

That's much worse than simply telling the truth about the problem we have in the Fall.

The fact that you can't face reality about Democratic frustration and demoralization shows how frail your support for the party really is.

[leftstreet]

2. Why do you assume people wouldn't want to hear this?

Hmm...

[scheming daemons]

7. Maybe because a large % of DU is acting like they're bolting from the party?

:shrug:

[leftstreet]

11. A large % of DUers appear to be disappointed in the party

I see no corresponding large percentage advocating voting Republican or third party though

:shrug:

[LostinVA]

37. exactly

[EFerrari]

19. Do you actually read *this* DU?

[myrna minx]

46. I may have concerns about the direction of the national party and disappointments with our

President, but in Minnesota, I have wonderful people to support for this election - I'm not going anywhere- BUT I will not be bullied for fear mongered into voting for someone who will vote against my best interest.

[PA Democrat]

58. How does disappointment with the actions of Democrats in Washington translate into

wanting Democrats to lose? Seriously, how does one make that leap in logic? We have a 2 party system and as disappointed as I know I am in the Obama administration and in many of the Democrats in congress, I will be out there supporting and voting for Democrats. I'll bet that you would be hard pressed to find more than a handful of people on DU who would be happy (as the OP suggests) to see the Democrats lose in November.

It doesn't do anything to foster party unity to insult and to dismiss the feelings of a large number of Democrats many of whom have very real and very legitimate reasons to be disappointed in our Representatives. I have very personal reasons to be greatly disappointed in the health care bill, and was angry at what I perceived to be a sellout to corporate interests. I believe we could have gotten a better bill. Note I said better, not ideal.

Our GLBT members have a legitimate reason to be upset about DADT and marriage equality. And yet there are members of DU who have been pretty callous in how they have dismissed the feelings of those members.

The point is that you can not FORCE people to feel a certain way. But that's what happens here daily. I acknowledge that some people are 100% happy with Obama and the Dems. Good for them. But many of us have very legitimate reasons to be disappointed or even angry. But I doubt that few would be happy if Republicans took the House and or the Senate in November.

Insulting other members of the party is no way to build party unity, which we need. Rahm and Gibbs are both too well paid to ignore that fact. If someone feels insulted by their remarks, telling them that their feeling are illegitimate is not the solution. That's the first lesson you are taught in any conflict resolution class. And this party IS in conflict.

[Radical Activist]

26. I've gotten very angry reactions for suggesting Democrats could do well in 2010.

I suspect they're Democrats with a perpetually negative mindset or who want to see Obama punished for not meeting their expectations. The two groups frequently overlap.

[aquart]

3. You're right. I do not want one word of this spoken.

I would prefer my party to live in a state of numb terror worrying about what I will do in November. Anyone who takes single payer off the table BEFORE discussion starts deserves to live in fear. Anyone who waters down a bill, any bill, in hopes the Republicans will play fair deserves to spend his income on antacids.

Let them dig out their old baby blankets if they want comfort. They deserve none from me.

[eridani]

4. Because Repukes are totally off the wall batshit crazy

Not the best of all possible worlds there.

[saracat]

5. Umm, much as I would like to believe your premise, I would need some links to

see some support of some of these statements. First of all D's almost NEVER vote in larger numbers than R's especially in an off year election, or non presidential,but I will concede that may depend on the state. Most polls show a depressed level of voter enthusiasm gap among the Dems and much more stated intent among the GOP to vote. And many candidates have actually asked Obama to "stay away". Obama himself met with some of the those targeted by the GOP to ask them if it was better to stay away. he recognizes that for some races, he is problematic. And as for the legislative "successes" that depends whether the Congresspersons District sees them as that.
I truly hope you are correct in the assumption of your subjectlibe , that we are going to do well. I think we may do better than expected but I think some of your data used to make your "assumptions" may be flawed.

[stopbush]

12. Check out Gallup, which is hardly a friend of Ds

Ds were down 19 points in the generic ballot last March. That closed to 10 points in June. By July, the Ds had surged ahead of the Rs and stayed there through July. The Rs have now pulled slightly ahead of Ds in August, but they are basically within the margin of error.

What that means is that the Rs have lost their momentum in the generic vote preference. The Ds have closed the gap and it's now a matter of up one week, down the next - a draw.

November will not be a generic vote - it will be an actual D candidate against an actual R candidate. Any pollster talking about the polls pointing to a big pick up by the Rs is pushing last Spring's meme. It ain't gonna happen. See here:

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Election%2b2010.aspx

As far as Obama staying away in some races - look for that to change. As Obama gets out and campaigns for Congressional Ds, he will get more and more face time in the media. The Rs have no one to counter him. So, while a few Ds may want him to stay away, more and more will want him to campaign for them as the country is once again subjected to Obama's tremendous campaign skills.

[saracat]

16. I don't see the Dems looking good here: From the link.

SharePrintE-mailAugust 12, 2010
Generic Ballot Still Points to Republican Gains in MidtermGallup Editor in Chief Frank Newport reviews the latest results from Gallup's generic ballot for Congress and discusses how presidential approval ratings equate to midterm seat loss. Click below to get more stories, RSS feeds, and e-mail alerts on these topics

[MilesColtrane]

51. I do see a certain number of posters here whistling past the graveyard.

Two months out and the polls are indicating that the GOP will pick up 25 - 29 additional seats in Congress.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

Just like the Big Dog said, it's the economy, stupid.

I don't see enough improvement in that between now and November to help us out.

[patrice]

9. Nuh, uh. . . We're going to show everyone what big Professional Lefties we are.

:sarcasm:

[EFerrari]

18. That doesn't even make sense.

We have Barbara struggling here and also the statehouse up for grabs.

[patrice]

21. I know!!! The Professional Left is out to show Obama who's boss. Sorry!

:shrug:

[EFerrari]

22. Obama has nothing to do with our statehouse or with Barbara Boxer's race.

Sorry!

[patrice]

23. Oh, if she doesn't make it back into office the Professional Left will be sure to take credit forit.

Gotta show the President who's boss and that's a good way to do it. Screw Congress; he can sit out his last 2 years as a lame duck.

Brilliant, right?

:sarcasm:

[EFerrari]

24. That's some conspiracy theory you have going there. Good luck with it. n/t

[patrice]

30. There are loads of people on this board who hate Obama that much.

It makes plenty of numerical sense for Greens, Libertarians, and lurking Republicans to deny Obama the Congress that he needs.

[LostinVA]

39. That is absolutely not true and you know it

:eyes:

And lumping Greens with the GOP is insulting and ridiculous.

[LostinVA]

38. seriesly

:wtf:

[myrna minx]

48. Your logic is really bizarre.

:shrug:

[Bonobo]

13. OP title is pure flamebait. Unrecced.

I didn't even read the rest because I don't read flamebait.

[Radical Activist]

27. You're kidding, right?

[LostinVA]

40. Bonobo and I don't agree on alot, but he is 100% right

As he states, teh OP title is accusatory at best.

[Radical Activist]

44. It looks like the headline is accurate.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8935541&mesg_id=8935541

It certainly reflects the response I usually get when I suggest Democrats will do better then expected.

[sufrommich]

45. lol. What? nt

[Raineyb]

47. Indeed. I agree. Unrecced. n/t

[caledesi]

15. Totally agree sb! (Indie) nt

[K8-EEE]

20. I do want to hear it!!!

I hope all that is correct.

[notesdev]

25. The delusion is strong in this one

Dems are 0-fer in major post-2008 elections and that's not a coincidence. We had a mandate to fix the country's problems and every major step has gone in the wrong direction.

[Radical Activist]

28. Democrats will add one seat to their Senate majority.

The media narrative is bullshit. Republicans peaked to early. Polls taken 3-6 months before an election mean next to nothing. Democrats will pick up enough Republican seats to make up for their losses and still add one seat to their side.

[gristy]

29. unrec for flamebait OP title

[laughingliberal]

31. I certainly hope we do well. I especially hope we hold the House.

And I damned well don't appreciate Gibbs' blithely conceding the House in his interview a couple of weeks ago. Perhaps you should email this to him. I'm beginning to wonder if that isn't who really doesn't want to hear this.

[Sherman A1]

32. That is my belief as well

Some seats may change hands, but I expect that to be Senate as opposed to much in the House where the districts are pretty much gerrymandered
.

[old mark]

34. Rec'd - I never believed in the GOP's takeover this November - I think they

are trying to convince themselves and spending tons of effort in the media to convince Democrats that voting will be a waste of time.

I am not thrilled by the Administration or Congress, but the idea of more of those idiot republicans crowing about how many seats they won makes me sick...I want all of us to vote, and I wand the democrats to at least hold the line, maybe even gain a few...

Maybe if we had a few more seats, we could get better bills through without giving it away to the nasty Gopers.

Rec - thanks for posting!
mark

[Cosmocat]

35. There is going to be a slight drawback ...

I have been saying that since the day after the 2008 election ... Dems are just overextended in the house especially, in districts that are R leaning ... In an off year midterm, the turnout just won't be the same as it was in 2008, and some R leaning districts are going to go back to the Rs ...

But, it is not going to be the "tsunami" the wingers/msm have been breathlessly screaming about for a year now ...

My over/under has been 20 house seats lost, and if it was a few weeks out I would bet HARD on the under ... Senate, maybe a loss of 3, 4 at worse, senate seats ...

The OP is overly positive, but the dems DO have more money, the Rs have the feckless Steele as RNC chief, total buffons in elected leadership, some stunningly bad candidates like Angle in major races, no plan other than the same desperate plea for failed trickledown ...

Only things that can shift it at this point are either a major domestic terror attack or a major wall street plunge ...

[old mark]

41. I am sure Wall Street will do its best to protect those in congress it pays so well....nt

[Radical Activist]

43. Exactly.

They do it before almost every election.

[Scurrilous]

36. K & R

:thumbsup:

[LaurenG]

42. Your subject line is kind of insulting

I'm a disgruntled lefty but I'm not stupid.
Also, I don't think #9 is true of any party but the tea baggers - all 25 of them. :shrug:

[ljm2002]

49. I sure hope you're right!

It would be lovely to have it go the other way and see Democratic gains in the mid-terms. The best part -- well, in the short term, anyway -- would be to see the outraged reactions of the rabid right, particularly on Faux. That would be a hoot! And then of course it would mean a chance to accomplish more politically...

[Iggo]

50. Fundraising-schmundraising.

Voter turnout is EVERYTHING.

[Stinky The Clown]

52. I aree with your conclusion, but not with some of your reasons.

edited to add "not"

[asdjrocky]

53. Why would I not want to hear that?

Who is this post addressed to?

[myrna minx]

55. (Read the bizarre conspiracy theory up thread)

This place is getting weirder and weirder.

[LLStarks]

54. WE. WILL. LOSE. SEATS. How is that "doing fine"?

[Ramulux]

56. I agree with a few points

however the enthusiasm gap is real and very dangerous. Also, turnout has been consistently higher in the republican primaries so I dont know where you heard we were winning there.

Also, the biggest problem we have right now is that the liberals and dems who vote in every election are being marginalized and spat upon which is going to make them less likely to show up.

This election is still salvageable but it all depends upon whether or not the white house is willing to pull their collective head out of their asses and realizr they need to do some serious outreach to progressives.

[deaniac21]

57. You left out 11. I pulled these numbers out of my ass

[bigwillq]

60. LOL

:rofl:

[DavidDvorkin]

59. Oh, I do want to hear it. I'm just having trouble believing it.

[derby378]

61. This implies the most important question...

WHICH Ds are going to win in November? Those who want real change? Or those who just want to play the game?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

62. Unrecced for abusive, assholic, self-pitying headline