What the Double Dip Recession Will Look Like

[marmar]

from 24/7WallStreet:




What the Double Dip Recession Will Look Like
Posted: August 13, 2010 at 3:34 am


“Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the economy has yet to hit bottom, a sharply higher percentage than the 53% who felt that way in January,” according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll.

A growing and vocal minority of economists believes that there will be a double dip recession primarily because of the intransigence of high unemployment and the rapidly faltering housing market. The notion of a “jobless recovery” has been around since the recessions of the 1950s and 1960s. It is a concept built on a relatively simple idea: employment lags during a recession but it is always part of a recovery cycle. Production rises as businesses see the end of a downturn and anticipate improving sales. They are reluctant to hire new workers until the recovery is confirmed, but once it has been, hiring picks up.

The 2008 – 2009 recession was – if it is indeed over – different from any other because of its depth and causes. The first trigger was the drop in housing prices, which robbed many people of their primary access to capital. As that access disappeared, so did the availability of credit. Consumer buying power evaporated and business cut inventory and production. Joblessness rose. Finally, consumer confidence plunged.

The last downturn was so great that in some months more than 500,000 people lost jobs. The unemployment rolls are now more than 8 million, and perhaps more gravely, over 1.4 million people have been out of work for over 99 weeks – which means they are no longer eligible to receive unemployment insurance benefits. This segment of the population has already begun to add to the number of indigent Americans and will continue to do so unless they can find homes with friends and family.

The second dip of the recession that ended in 2009, according to economists and the federal government, is likely to begin within the next two quarters. ..........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://247wallst.com/2010/08/13/what-the-double-dip-recession-will-look-like/#ixzz0wUrIAIgt

[xchrom]

1. Recommend

[doc03]

2. I think if the Republicans get control of the House and Senate

we a virtually certain of another Great Depression. There will be no chance of getting any more unemployment extensions, jobs program or any stimulus. I heard Boner the other day say there was $400 billion unspent stimulus money, is that true? If that is true screw the pork projects and make a jobs program that puts regular people to work rather than a few highly paid construction workers. You could put many times more people to work on a WPA type program at $10.00 an hour than on a road project. Probably most of the money in a road project goes for materials and what jobs it creates are for just a few construction workers. What about the American worker that doesn't belong to a construction union, they need jobs too.

[hayu_lol]

3. What we are presently enduring is a depression...full blown and...

getting worse. No effort has been made to keep factories and people who make and build things, for wages, here...nor has there been any effort made to bring back all the jobs that have fled offshore.

We the people are simply screwed again.

[ixion]

4. I'm sorry, but the first time I heard the phrase "jobless recovery" was under Bush, and not before

It's a phrase that I would remember, too, because of it's inherent intellectual dishonesty.

[Poboy]

5. It is a term that is born of the inherently privledged.

In what ordinary world could ANY 'recovery' be jobless?