The Dems have themselves to blame

[edhopper]

Not the rank and file like us, but the Democrats in Government. The President, the Congress, the States too.
When this Economy tanks again, the voters will probably turn back to the GOP. Yeah, I know they were the ones that ruined things in the first place, but most voters don't think that deeply, they gave this guy a chance, now let's give the other guy. Remember "It's the Economy, stupid!"
Instead of giving us a true Democratic/Progressive agenda we got Dem light.
Half ass Health Care reform with no public component.
Wall Street regulation in name only.
A far too weak Stimulus bill with too many tax cuts and not enough real jobs.
Not enough to do what needed to be done.
A real new New Deal might have kept the voters in the Dem camp the way FDR did through the 30s.
But constantly placating the GOP and not aggressively calling their shit, has only led to a spot where the Dems could lose a house of Congress, or (god forbid) lose the government in 2012. Then we are all really fucked.
And they have no one to blame but themselves.
"The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity."

[SKKY]

1. Here's what I hope for...

...Obama plays the Pragmatist during his first term, get enough done to get re-elected (Which unless they find him in bed with a live man or a dead woman, is pretty much a done deal), and then during his lame duck term will really turn into the progressive we all voted for. That's my "Hope".

[sendero]

2. That could happen...

.. or he could turn into even more of a Republican. Me, I don't think his second term is anything like a done deal.

[SKKY]

4. I just don't see anyone on the Republican side challenging him...

...Romney? Pawlenty? By the time the General rolls around, we should be pretty much in full recovery mode, if not much sooner. I think he's probably fine for a 2nd term.

[edhopper]

5. I thought it was a joke that anyone

would vote for such an obvious moron as GWB.
If the Economy tanks again and things get worse, anything could happen.
"No one ever went broke.............."

[SKKY]

7. OK, but let's assume for a minute that the economy doesn't tank again...

...and we're well on the road back, which I think is a much more likely scenario. I'm thinking unemployment is around 7.5 or 8.0 percent and falling. That kind of recovery. He'll be golden.

[edhopper]

8. Why do you think that

From the Economist I read a double dip recession is very likely and systemic 10% unemployment likely.

[SKKY]

11. Based on things I've read on...

...Motley Fool, CS Monitor, etc. Not all agree, but enough that the general consensus is that we're in a recovery and a double-dip recession is increasingly unlikely. One of the more interesting articles I read said the current issue with people not spending is that those who have jobs are saving and paying off debt- having been "spooked" by the recession. Once they reach a comfortable level, they'll start spending again, which will drive the economy. I'm not an economist, but it makes sense to me.

[sendero]

15. I think..

... you are about 2 months out of date. The Fed is talking about Quantative Easing 2. They have admitted that they think the economy is slipping back. Previous numbers are revised downward. New numbers are not where they were expected to be.

The signs are everywhere, but remember, the politicians and the MSM cannot talk truthfully about the economy, it would cause a panic.

[edhopper]

16. Well

If you read Roubini, Reich, Johnson, Krugman, the guys who were right last time, you will see we are in bad shape.

[SKKY]

18. I'm reading Roubini right not actually.

[edhopper]

21. And you discount him?

"
Double-Dip Days
Nouriel Roubini
Jul 18, 2010 8:22PM

The global economy, artificially boosted since the recession of 2008-2009 by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and financial bailouts, is headed towards a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes. Worse yet, the fundamental excesses that fueled the crisis – too much debt and leverage in the private sector (households, banks and other financial institutions, and even much of the corporate sector) – have not been addressed. Private-sector deleveraging has barely begun. Moreover, there is now massive re-leveraging of the public sector in advanced economies, with huge budget deficits and public-debt accumulation driven by automatic stabilizers, counter-cyclical Keynesian fiscal stimulus, and the immense costs of socializing the financial system’s losses.
"

[SKKY]

27. Well he could be right, or he could be wrong.

There are just as many people who are predicting 4.2 - 4.5 growth for next year and 2012. Between the two I think is where the truth lives. Here's another economist I've recently read who I think is probably closer to the average between the two extremes.

http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2010/08/03/updated-us-economic-forecast-through-2011-stagnant-is-the-word/

It's not pretty, but it's not horrible either.

[edhopper]

29. I just give more

credence to those who saw the bust coming. They seem to be more in the double dip camp.
There were plenty who said there was no housing bubble and the economy was fine in 2007.
They were incredibly wrong.

[sendero]

10. I think.....

..... put as respectfully as I know how, that you are profoundly mistaken.

[SKKY]

14. We'll see. But for the sake of us all...

...I hope that you're profoundly mistaken. With all due respect of course. :patriot:

[sendero]

30. I hope....

.... I am too :)

[RC]

23. That 9.5% is a cooked government number.

The real number, depending on which part of the country you are in, is as high as 60%.

[sendero]

9. I don't see him figuring out..

.... that it's the economy, stupid and actually helping. I see a country in a full on depression punishing the man in power at the time.

I see the AIG bailout and just how plain WRONG it was becoming more common knowledge. I see a situation where a trained monkey could beat him.

[SKKY]

13. Well, I guess I'm more hopeful than you...

...but since I retire from the Navy in 2 years, perhaps that drives a lot of my "hopefulness".

[edhopper]

3. I see no sign that

he will ever be more progressive.

[SKKY]

6. Admittedly, I don't see many signs of that either...

...it's a gut feeling I have. If we maintain majorities in both houses, and he wins a 2nd term, he'll have no excuse to NOT turn progressive.

[TheKentuckian]

12. Sure he will because it is DLC SOP. They will just pretend that they woodchucked their way to

victory and Democrats are unified behind "sensible centrisisim".

Faith is for your spiritual life.

[Raineyb]

24. That sounds like what people were saying about Clinton.

I wouldn't fall for that line again.

[SKKY]

25. Clinton was hamstrung in ways Obama isn't. Well, not yet anyway.

[Raineyb]

33. Clinton willfully embraced neo-libralism (aka Reganomics) with NAFTA

he struck the last blow in favor of large telecoms against the public, and he signed off on Graham Leach Bliley which helped create our current financial system mess and he gratuitously went after the poorest with his "welfare reform" He didn't HAVE to do any of these things he chose to. And now he's a rich man because of it. Unfortunately the rest of us have to deal with the aftermath of his decisions. We wait for Obama to put in more progressive policies at our peril If we don't push it won't get done.

[blindpig]

31. You really ought to get a grip...

What ya see is what ya get. 'Hope' is the preventer of action.

[Steely_Dan]

17. One Word: JOBS n/t

[edhopper]

20. Yes

But have you seen anything from the Congress or the president that will give us jobs.
The Stimulus bill was weak measure that failed to provide the help we really needed.

[Steely_Dan]

22. I Know That This Has Been...

posted here many times...However, I think needs repeating.

I think Mr. Obama should have concentrated on jobs. To me it was the first and most critical issue facing our country. Not an easy task...but either was the HCR which was negotiated away. Why this administration did not recognize the importance of putting people to work is beyond me. It would have made a huge difference in the minds of the electorate.

Is it not possible to create and FDR type program where some of this "spending" could be used to put people to work? In my mind, it is a no brainer.


-PLA

[SKKY]

26. I agree with you 100% on that. I too would have concentrated on jobs first.

That would have been the easier sell.

[scarletwoman]

28. The only way taking on HCR first would have actually made sense was if it had been about

instituting a universal single payer health care system, nothing less.

It would have instantly improved our economic competitiveness with the rest of the civilized world by taking health care costs out of the hands of employers.

Small businesses especially would have found it easier to hire more people if paying for employees' health insurance were no longer in the equation.

HCR could have had a job stimulating effect had it been real reform.

sw

[SKKY]

32. Yea, that's a very good point, but...

...I think it might have been easier to get real health care reform if a robust jobs bill had been passed and things were beginning to look up. I think the GOP gained a lot of traction during the health care debate that they wouldn't have if the discussion were about jobs. As it is, we get much milder versions of both.

[old mark]

19. I think Obama believes he IS "progressive" - I KNOW many on the right think he is Stalin

or Satan or both...I don't see many real jobs opening here, and I am amazed there is no government works program such as the WPC or the CCC...the money circulating would help small businesses and we certainly need work done on our roads and structures...what ever happened to that stuff that was promised?

If the Administration is counting on the business community or banks or any type of "bipartisanship" in trying to help the economy, then we are in worse shape than I thought...the right is encouraging businesses NOT TO HIRE and not to participate in anything that will help end what they see as "the Democrat's Problems"...

The people in DC have to wake up a little...


mark