Global warming's effect on real estate

[KurtNYC]

I have been trying to locate data on which areas of the world will remain habitable, and capable of crop cultivation as global warming progresses. It hasn't been easy to find. A recent estimate claims that real estate on the gulf side of Florida will decline in value by an average of $40,000 per home due to the oil spills. Surely there is data to show which areas of the US and the world will become more desireable in the next 20 years.

I found this map showing the average temperature changes worldwide over the last 10 years (mid page, right side):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

But that isn't a model of which areas will become uninhabitable and which areas may become more inhabitable, or at the least more sought after as nice climates and fresh water become more scarce. Some of those with access to all the information have chosen locations such as Wyoming, Maine, and the Catskill Mountains for their estates. But what are they looking at?

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[MadHound]

1. I would say that, other than being well away from the coasts, there is no way of knowing

I live in the Midwest, farm country. I think that my place, barring a huge tornado, will do OK. But I don't know. Could have a major drought set in here and stay for years. Wyoming, Maine and the Catskill Mts. simply are that great a growing land, not to say that you couldn't do a garden or such there, but the amount, quantity and quality of food is limited.

But given the nature of climate change, other than the oceans inundating the coastal area, nobody can really say with certainty where is a place that will remain relatively habitable.

[northernlights]

3. here in Maine *everybody* gardens

I'm also able to get locally grown and milled buckwheat and oats.

State studies have shown we can feed about 80% of our local population off of locally grown food. That's right now, without actively trying to feed 100% of our local population with local food.

Also, how the coastlines will fare varies dramatically up here. We have coast that is hundreds of feet above sea level and little villages right at sea level. Mostly the islands and the little villages at sea level will be affected. I'm ~3 miles inland, but hundreds of feet up.

As to what will grow here, I expect that is changing. For 7 years, I've gotten 1 or at most 2 little rocks from my peach trees. This year I have several dozen. I'm afraid one or two branches may break they're so laden.

I've also noticed a new group of pollinators that I've never seen before in my life. They look like tiny little hummingbirds with white-gold chests and amber and red-brown striped backs and fan tails. Until you get close enough to see the antennae and many feet. I have no idea what they are, or where they migrated from.

[BeFree]

4. Hummingbird Moths? In New England!!??

[spinbaby]

6. There are a lot of them this year

More than I've ever seen before in PA. They're really cool but unfortunately their alter-ego is the tomato horn worm.

[BeFree]

7. Is that right?

I thought the horn-worms were Luna moths?

Much to learn about this little blue ball spinning in the deep dark black void of space.

[spinbaby]

9. Luna moths also have big, green caterpillars

But they're not the same as tomato hornworms and don't favor the nightshade family like the hornworm does.

[northernlights]

11. just googled it -- yup

Clearwing Hummingbird Moth. Imagine -- I grew up in suburban PA and have spent much of my life out of doors and in the country -- and I'd never heard of, never mind seen one, before!

I didn't even know the name until now. Just googled it. Yup -- they've migrated into my herb garden this year.

[MadHound]

5. Things are changing everywhere

What really worries me are my apple trees. Apple trees, and some others, need cold time each year, in some cases up to four or five hundred hours below freezing in order to develop and set fruit properly the next year. Here, there have been a couple of years where I've had to sweat out the time, since we've had warm winters.

It's not so much that I'm seeing new animals, but rather not seeing old ones. When I was a kid, forty years ago, every year about this time I would see thousands of Monarch butterflies come through on their annual trek, and this was in a small city. Now, if you're in any urban area of any size, you might see one-five at the most. Even out here in the country I'm seeing numbers in the dozens, not the hundreds or thousands.

Lots of pollinators are going away. My wife and I make sure that we plant gardens that are friendly to pollinators so that they will stick around our place and pollinate our trees, berries and veggie garden.

You're growing peaches that far north? Wow, congratulations. I've struggled growing peaches over the past seven years, but not due to climate, but rather due to soil. The land that I live on was over farmed and then over grazed, so I am in the process of revitalizing the soil. Interesting thing though, I can now grow pecan trees, which used to be a rarity outside of the south.

You can either tie up or prop up your peach branches, that is what I'm doing with my young apple trees that are bearing. If you tie them up, make sure you provide some cushioning between the string, twine, etc. and the tree bark. A few layers of folded cloth, or other similar material will do the trick.

Good luck!

[northernlights]

12. I'm missing a lot of butterflies too

My herb garden is host to a lot of butterfly and hummingbird feeders. Last year it was rare for me not see my hummers on any given day, feeding. I Mr. Hummer from my garage once and Mrs. Hummer from my barn several times. And once I was sitting in bed and looked up to see Mr. Hummer hovering across from me watching me through the window! This year, I saw Mr. Hummer exactly once and Mrs. Hummer not at all.

I've only seen a couple butterflies, and no monarchs.

And my bee population is low this year too. My orange-butt bees in particular seem mia.

I also had really cute little tiny black and white "yellow jackets" that built mini-nests in my barn ceiling and behind my house. Very non-agressive -- I don't know if they even had stingers. Haven't seen them at all this year. :(

[KurtNYC]

8. the catskills are notoriously bad for agriculture

at one point the government gave vets of WW1 plots of land and some nearly starved trying to cultivate on it. But I live near the Catskills now and there are lots of apples and dairy here.

[northernlights]

2. nothing scientific here -- strictly "woo," but

7 years ago, around February or March, 2003, I chose Maine after meditating on where to go. My inner voice said, "There will be water there." Maine at the time was in the depths of a 5 year drought.

A few months after I moved up here, the rains started. The rain has been more normal this year, but in the last 7 years we've had torrential downpours with 3" in 24 hours common, and one monsoon that dumped something like 15" on Portland and caused a lot of flooding. I also learned, while in the Master Gardener Program at the University of Maine, that "water will be the oil of the 21st century," and that we're sitting on one of the better pure water aquifers in the world. The water wars are already underway, although right now mostly legal with Poland Springs (Nestle) suing town after town trying to expand.

I also moved north because some tv programs suggested that eventually Massachusetts would have palm trees. Pretty far ahead in the future (though their estimates were overly conservative).

There is more to consider than just temperature changes. Potable water will be a major issue. Desert areas will expand. Other areas will be inundated.

[End Of The Road]

10. Nothing scientific here, either, but...

Consider the Great Lakes area, especially western MI and eastern WI. They've got plenty of water, and although the economy isn't great right now, it will drastically improve as industries (ha - like we've 'em) move north for water and temperate climate. Real estate is affordable there right now, it's easy access to big Midwestern cities that will become THE business and cultural centers when the coastal areas run into trouble.