New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats By NATE SILVER

[babsbunny]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/25/new-forecast-shows-democrats-losing-6-to-7-senate-seats/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

The Democratic majority is in increasing jeopardy in the Senate, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight forecasting model. The Democrats now have an approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the chamber unless Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida, who is running for the Senate as an independent, both wins his race and decides to caucus with them.

In addition, there is an 11 percent chance that Democrats will lose a total of nine seats, which would leave them with 50 votes, making them vulnerable to a defection to the Republican Party by a centrist like Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut or Ben Nelson of Nebraska. On average, over the model’s 100,000 simulation runs, the Democrats are projected to lose a net of six and a half Senate seats, which would leave them with 52 or 53 senators. (Even though the G.O.P. primary in Alaska remains too close to call, that outcome is unlikely to alter the model.)

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

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[ck4829]

3. Who are you punishing by not voting because of rude people on a website?

A Democrat in Congress who will just retire to their mansion and their millions of dollars?

OR

A person who is on their last weeks of unemployment insurance and the Republicans are saying "Let them eat cake... I mean, just get a job!"?

[Name removed]

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[ck4829]

5. How so?

That doesn't sound very "middle of the road" to me.

[FBaggins]

6. Why do I get the impression...

...that we may be better off if you don't vote?

[Ikonoklast]

11. How's your sisters? Or was it your wife's sisters?

Just make up crap and anyone will believe you, right?

People here are smarter than you, Skippy, get over it.

[xchrom]

2. Too late now - if bad is going happen it's going to happen.

Talking about retarded progressives, Teh Professional left,
Bad HCR, etc-
The opportunities were there for
Losses to be fewer.

But we won't know til we get there.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. 52 Senators will work, as long as we change the Filibuster rule

this could even give us the leverage we need to get the rule changed

[FBaggins]

8. Change it all the way down to 52?

That's not going to happen. 55 is itself pretty unlikely.

[Make7]

9. That is disheartening. I hope the actual results deviate significantly from the model. ( n/t )

[CatWoman]

10. he was just on with Rachel

has a new column at The NY Times....

[Make7]

13. Considering how accurate his 2008 modeling was, this has me worried.

I know the election isn't tomorrow, but it's not that far away.

Perhaps the reporting of his current modeling results will actually help get more votes in November.
 

[Dawson Leery]

17. If Democrats don't come out to vote,

then it's over.

[tritsofme]

19. He's going to release his House predictions next week.

If his model points toward a Republican House, I will start getting pretty nervous.

[Bitwit1234]

12. Gee whizz and all 18 or the assholes are going to keep

their seats. How about that. Guess they are so worried they are trying their darnedest to scare the Democrats out aren't they.

[Marr]

14. And the Democratic leadership will breathe a sigh of relief.

They've had to do some serious maneuvering to "lose" on some of these issues. It's really exposed the kabuki theater, IMHO. I'm sure they'll be delighted to have a built in, somewhat viable excuse moving forward.

[LooseWilly]

22. That's my read... (n/t)

[Dawson Leery]

15. If the base stays home, then

this will most certainly happen.

[LiberalAndProud]

16. 20% chance -- 11% chance

If the weatherman says there's a 20% chance of rain tomorrow, usually the sun shines.

[customerserviceguy]

18. Dreams that Charlie Crist will caucus with Democrats

are delusions, as long as Charlie wants to remain in the closet. And Rethugs are more than willing to let him stay there, until they get a real majority, and probably the Presidency again.

[tritsofme]

20. If the national political environment is such that the Republicans takeover the Senate

Then Rubio is headed for the Senate anyways.

If Crist wins, he is headed into a chamber controlled by Democrats, it wouldn't make any sense for him to join the minority, especially after spending the last several months sticking it to Republicans and cozying up with Democrats.

I expect Crist to announce his intention to caucus with Democrats by the campaign's end in his bid to win Democratic votes in the general.

[bvar22]

21. Can't really say the Democrats "lost" Arkansas.

More like the Party Leadership gave away that one.

[dflprincess]

23. The Democrats have had a majority?

You could have fooled me. Maybe if they'd used their majority they wouldn't be in danger of losing it.

But if they do lose it they'll have the excuse they want for not getting anything done or passing bad legislation. And, they can go back to telling us how things would be different if they only had the majority. It was great line for fundraising in the past - though I have my doubts about how many people will be dumb enough to believe them again.