What do you think will happen with Social Security?

[ThomWV]

I think Social Security is as safe as mother's milk. There are a whole bunch of interrelated reasons to think that.

First off politicians are cowards and old people vote. There are more old people who need Social Security than those who don't. No matter how hard you try, you will never convince old people that they did not pay into Social Security their entire working lives or that they are anything less than deserving of their benefits for having made that pay-in. That's just the first thing.

The second thing is that Social Security has always been run at a surplus and has always been raided to pay for current operations; the lock-box has no lock. Those same cowardly politicians who fear to offend the old people mentioned above know that no one pays attention as they use the "trust fund" to pay for favored projects. In short Social is the goose that is laying the golden eggs, and nobody is going to choke that goose.

Third: If all it takes is raising the cap on earnings to put things back as they were the Republicans will not put up much of a fight against it - the rich will eat their own, you can bet on that. And the dining will begin on their weakest members, the ones that still draw a paycheck, the little rich guys. That cap might mean a lot to you if you're making $150k a year, but you just haven't glommed onto youre peon status just yet. If you're really rich the first thing is you don't draw a pay check and even if you did the Social Security withholding on the first couple of hundred grand is insignificant to you. So the really big money isn't going to fight this too hard.

So I don't see Social Security being in much peril at all. I think they'd cut the defense budget before they went after it.

[Warpy]

1. I think the Cat Food Commission is likely to deadlock

because Republicans are determined to destroy it, completely counter to the stated purpose of the commission. That throws it right back to Congress, which will likely increase the taxable cap rather than cash in those worthless IOUs they racked up over the last 25 years when they robbed all our overpayments to fatten the rich.

[lldu]

2. So, why the report AFTER the election?

I think it is designed to be voted on AFTER THE ELECTION by lame ducks and others who will screw us and hope we forget by the next elections.
Just my opinion.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. Warpy, with all due respect

I almost always agree with you, but...

1. My recollection is that 14 of the 18 commissioners are on record as supporting Social Security cuts.
2. Why are the IOUs worthless? They're Treasury Bills, I believe.

I think that the fix is in on the "tinkering" (i.e., increasing retirement age to 70 which effectively steals about $50k from each recipient) - it will be recommended and approved by the lame duck Congress,

[Mimosa]

15. They've already made cuts (link) by raising retirement age

http://www.drdaveanddee.com/socialsecurity.html

[QC]

4. Benefit cuts promoted as a brilliant plan for "saving" Social Security.

Some people will fall for it, including many people here.

[peace13]

5. I agree they will raise the cap..

...and if they are smart they will close the anus so that funds will not continue to be raided. Face it, Americans pay over 12 % off of the top of their wages into this fund. In these hard times that deduction makes it impossible to contribute to a private retirement plan. If SS benefits are reduced or removed I see folks refusing to pay in, leaving the millions who are withdrawing today in a very tight spot.

[kentuck]

6. The only reason Social Security is a problem...

is because it has been running such a healthy surplus. If that were not the case, the government could not "borrow" the money and the deficit would be much smaller. So, ideally, no SS program at all would be ideal to cutting our deficit. The more money in the fund, the more the government borrows and the larger our deficit.

In reality, without Social Security, the government would have to borrow elsewhere and we would be much worse off. But we cannot pretend the money from the SS fund is like a cookie jar. That money is just as important, even moreso, than the money borrowed from the Chinese or Japanese. Those Treasuries are not of less value.

[Johnny Harpo]

7. Congress Will Raise The Retirement Age In The Not Too Distant Future...

to age 70 for full retirement and to 65 for early retirement.

Once this bill is written and presented, it will pass throught both houses of Congrees like a hot knife goes through butter.

I am convinced this is going to happen sooner then later.

If you are eligible for SS benefits...apply for them now before it is too late.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. minor cap adjustment, minor means test, major rise in retirement age

[katandmoon]

9. Then why the strong appearance that they WILL go after it? Just to scare people? Why?

[Winterblues]

11. The way government works, They always put out worst case scenerio

so you won't be nearly as upset when the final deal is cut..That has always been the way of Government until Bush* and now Obama. When Bush* first came into office he would ask for everything including the kitchen sink, knowing his request would be cut in half at least. what happened though was he got everything he asked for and Democrats even asked if they could do more..Now with Obama it is the same but in reverse. He lets the Republicans tell him what is the most he can ask for and then when he does they demand cuts in that...

[katandmoon]

12. Did Bush ever put Dems in charge of potentially highly consequential commissions?

[nevergiveup]

10. Nothing much for the moment

Obama is not a fool and another commission is just that, another commission. Commissions are a dime a dozen and there are much bigger fish to fry.

[Blue Meany]

13. My view is that the US dollar will decline & inflation will

gradually eat up its value. The money borrowed from surplus will be paid in deflated dollars, so that few baby-boomers will get the actual value that they paid into it.

[xchrom]

14. Well the catfood commission wasn't created to do nothing.

Anything they do will be a divide and conquer approach.

Raise retirement from 67 to 70.

Cut payments and Medicare out there
Somewhere.

And a lame duck session can act with impunity.