Do you think the US economy is in permanent decline?

[Stinky The Clown]

The phrase "permanent decline" is being heard with increasing frequency.

What do you think and why or why not?

[DJ13]

1. Not yet

But... the coming "austerity" programs Obama seems to want (SS & Medicare cuts, his determination to address deficits in a near depression) will be the trigger that puts us on the steep downward slope.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Raster]

18. And the Ministry of Truth thanks you.

[Webster Green]

19. How about tackling the content of the post?

Your type of response is actually against the board rules. :thumbsdown:

[TheWraith]

28. How about proving you don't beat your wife and pets?

Someone who goes out of their way to spread outright falsehoods about "what Obama wants" has no intention of being swayed by facts. They've already made up their minds that in their world, Obama secretly wants to cut Social Security, despite his repeated statements that he'll allow no such thing. It's not that much different from the people who still claim Obama doesn't have a birth certificate.

[Webster Green]

34. You have no facts.

None posted here anyway. :eyes:

[TheWraith]

42. Should I also prove that the sky is blue, and water is wet?

Or should I credit ANYONE else here with actually listening to the news instead of some crap dreamed up out of thin air by bloggers looking to scare people for attention?

Obama: Social Security 'is not in crisis'

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/114821-obama-social-security-not-in-crisis

Obama: Social Security won't be privatized

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/08/18/obama.ohio.jobs/index.html

The wealthy should pay a bit more on the payroll tax
Stop any efforts to privatize Social Security
Raise the cap on the payroll tax on wealthy individuals

http://www.ontheissues.org/economic/barack_obama_social_security.htm

[RaleighNCDUer]

37. So we just imagined that Obama stacked the deficit commission

with anti-SS deficit hawks who have a long record of advocating cuts and/or privitization, but never have talked about raising the cap?

Do you REALLY think that when they come back calling for cutting SS he's going to overrule them? About as much as he overruled those who never talked about a public option.

[DJ13]

21. No point now

:applause:

[laughingliberal]

56. +1 nt

[Tesha]

2. Yes, at least until the PTB realize that you can't create wealth...

...simply by consuming goods and services, you actually
have to add value to something. Otherwise, you're just
burning capital.

And as we've proven since about 1980 or so, you only
have so much capital (of all kinds) to burn through.

Tesha

[RaleighNCDUer]

39. Unfortunately, the PTB are making a lot of money this way

and they THINK they are creating wealth, because THEY are getting wealthy. They just don't see anybody else who will tell them differently.

[peacetalksforall]

3. Read about the Bilderbergers and you will say designed decline, planned decline, intentional

decline.

Just read.

[RKP5637]

11. I've read some of that and to me it's hard to walk away and not think some of

it is quite plausible when you look around at what's going on...

[peacetalksforall]

43. I started reading The True Story of the Bilderberger Group and I am sick. Everything

I pieced together by observing facts and quotes and everything I've read on the internet and heard on the radio and everything I deduced by coming up with half way answers based on logic, filtering, flow charts that I would make - I mean everything ------ is coming together in this book. All confirmation of my worst fears.

I should say don't read - it's painful. Such disrespect for us. We are like pigs in a sty. What arrogance.

Author Daniel Estulin. Journalist/Author

[RKP5637]

46. Just my logic tells me when you get a bunch of super wealthy and super powerful people together, one

topic that is clearly going to come up is how do we keep this going and improve on it so we get more... either implicitly or explicitly this conversation is there.

I think people are catching onto what is happening, at the present time the majority of us IMO don't know quite what to do about it... We vote in various politicians local, state and national levels hoping for better, but betterment does not always come along. I've never seen this nation in this sad state of affairs. One problem I see is much of American goes along today like a herd of sheep, and many believe any misinformation / disinformation thrown their way. The nation has lost the ability to think.

Thanks for the info, on the book!

[peacetalksforall]

53. They are going to wake up when they announce that our vote has been cancelled and hand us their

replacement constitution (which I think has already been written by the Federalist Society with tons of input from the Reverends.

[RKP5637]

57. The willful ignorance in this country today is rather startling. I'm afraid for

some that's what it might take... and then they'll say WTF, how did this happen.

[Fumesucker]

4. Permanent? Who knows? Forever is a long time..

A long term decline however appears to be in the cards, our politicians have allowed, indeed encouraged, corporations here to send jobs overseas whenever possible.

Peak oil is going to change the way manufacturing and especially distribution is done, overseas shipping is going to eventually become a great deal more expensive barring some at this point unforeseeable radical new technology.

The US is still a major manufacturing nation, however when you remove military gear from the picture we fall a long way down the hierarchy. Weaning American manufacturing from the MIC teat is going to be a painful and difficult process.

[zipplewrath]

8. Hammer, meet nail

You hit it. I'm a bit dubious on the peak oil aspect, only because I think that the peak will be "flatter" than most folks are predicting. But regardless, you have to convert our manufacturing over to a "sustainable" model and that will mean keeping some of the industries that currently survive on the MIC cash flow, into true commercial ventures. Then you have to KEEP them here.

[mike r]

5. Smells like Japan's stagnation

10-20 years maybe.

[GSLevel9]

6. just be prepared to work until you're too frail to work...

then you'll be fine!!

:sarcasm:

[Hawkowl]

7. Until free trade and offshoring ends, yes!

Debt can not be the US's only export. Until we start innovating in actual technology, ideas, and products and exporting those, instead of bright, shiny, new, Ponzi schemes, the economy will be on an ever increasing declination.

[RKP5637]

9. Yes. The economic model we currently use is obsolete for the 21st century, but those in

power/monied/greedy and the like will cling to it and reinforce it... I think, and I'm saddened to think it, that the US will become a police state if necessary to maintain the status quo. Runaway capitalism is just as bad as any other "-ism" we're supposed to fear...

Hence, I think things will muddle along and spiral downward. One can look at the economy we're trying to prop up and it really makes no sense in the big picture. It's geared for some to make out quite well, and the rest are going to hell financially.

The ostrich complex is wide spread in the US IMO.

[KansDem]

10. I don't see how it can't be otherwise...

Jobs continue to move oversees;
Average pay continues to decline;
Schools continue to lose across the country;
Unemployment continues to hover around 9-10%;
Deceptive wars and the MIC continue to eat up some 50% of the budget;
Social Security is under attack;
Corporatism is on the rise;
Taxpayer monies continue to go to bail-out failed capitalists;
And perhaps the 800-lb gorilla: More and more boomers will be retiring in the coming decade. It used to be that your home which you paid off over many years, factored heavily into you retirement "nestegg." Now with homes losing value and and soon-to-be glut of sellers, how are seniors going to retire? How can you sell you home and downsize if there are more sellers than buyers? You'll be selling you home at a lost and having to scrounge together more dough simply to rent that apartment or lease that condo to spend your "golden years."

[RKP5637]

22. I agree 100%. You actually made the list of things rumbling through my mind as I

was writing my post #9. When you look at the big picture it is just insane to think this current economy is going to work for all of the citizens. There is IMO clearly an agenda going on... I think it's to bring the US labor rate and standard of living down as far as possible so wages here will be on a par with the rest of the world.

I still think most Americans have their heads in the sand as to what's really going on... Our economic model makes no F'en sense in terms of serving the best interests of all of the citizens.

I think very dark days are ahead. I used to be an optimist, but anymore I'm a realist, NOT a pessimist. And what I see IMO is not good for the future if we stay on the current course. I expected to see meaningful change, but all I see is a different flavor of the same old stuff.

[raouldukelives]

33. I feel they are tying to lower minimum wage as well

It will go nicely with lowering SS and bring back many manufacturing jobs from China.

[Subdivisions]

27. And you didn't even mention the now 5-year long decline in oil production. Oil

is the lifeblood of growth and our economy. As oil production continues to decline, so will civilization, especially the United States as we are an oil importer.

[KansDem]

32. Excellent observation!

Oil will become harder to find and more costly to extract...

Thanks! :hi:

[HughBeaumont]

12. The decline will stop when the first CEO is killed by an angry mob.

But seriously, it all boils down to the superrich coming to grips with several things:

+ Stop treating their employees like diseased livestock and start paying them a living wage comparable to modern inflation and production.

+ Stop placing roadblock after roadblock on Universal Health Care.

+ Start realizing that treating their workers better means better results for them and their businesses. Workers who lose sleep because they're constantly, CONSTANTLY worrying about job loss or that one instance of bad luck that sends them straight to financial ruin aren't going to be productive.

+ Be taxed higher. MUCH higher. Trust me, they won't miss a DIME.

+ Stop blowing up the earth just because they CAN.

+ Stop discouraging free enterprise and entreprenuership and start educating potential small businesspeople.

+ Stop the race to the bottom.

+ Stop putting up roadblock after roadblock after roadblock when it comes to ending our dependency on fossil fuels.

+ End their visions of empire.

+ Trash unbridled corporatism. Trash "Trickle Down". THEY DO NOT WORK. Long term and more equal communities are far better.

+ Stop moving so far to the right that a hood and sheet is the next step.

+ Stop treating life, business and culture as a zero-sum competition where there has to be winners and losers. It doesn't have to be that way.

[RKP5637]

26. Well said!!! Excellent!!! n/t

[Stinky The Clown]

31. Yours ought to be an OP

(edit to spell "ought" correctly)

[lpbk2713]

13. As long as Limbaugh and the RWingnuts want the country to fail.

Yes.


They will do whatever they can to obstruct and impede.

[HereSince1628]

14. Permanently? No,

At least if you take decline to mean continued descent.

[alsame]

15. Long term, definitely. Permanent depends on whether or not we

change course and start making things in this country again. Other than exotic financial products and war, of course.

I try very hard to buy things made in the US and it's almost impossible - so it's no surprise to me that there are no jobs.

Until there is a balance of manufacturing and consumption, I don't see how we get out of this mess.

[fasttense]

16. Until Liberals, Progressives and other Normal People start protesting in mass.

Our economy will continue to deteriorate. Because there is no reason, no incentive, for our gubermint to change anything. They are getting big bucks from corporations, they are getting reelected (for the most part), they are rarely held accountable and they get to keep all the big bucks they managed to con out of the masses.

Until normal people (not tea baggers) take up protest signs in huge numbers, nothing will ever change.

So, if this 2nd RepubliCON Great Depression gets bad enough, maybe the populace will get up and protest or maybe not....

[RKP5637]

30. And we're starting to see more politicians just spending their personal money

to buy elections... and then SCOTUS rules corps. can contribute like citizens. The entire model is ridiculous unless one is trying to build an empire of rulers and the rest are serfs.

[MH1]

20. an economic model that relies on perpetual growth cannot succeed indefinitely in a limited ecosystem

Whether the permanent decline is happening now or won't happen til later, I don't know.

[pampango]

23. Certainly we won't dominate the world economy like we did for 30 years after WWII, but

we'll only decline absolutely if we accept that the political PTB of the moment are invulnerable to pressure and change.

Our economy surged during that period without much concern about competition from other countries whose economies were recovering from the devastation of the war. As their economies did recover, they knew they had to compete with others either in their own domestic markets or for the lucrative American import market. Germany had to know what Canada and Japan (and vice versa) were doing and do it better (or, at least, as well). All their countries were in the same boat. Only the US could relax and keep producing things without an eye to the competition, e.g. German/Japanese cars, Japanese electronics, etc., since for a generation there was no effective competition.

The only barriers we have to a robust economy are self-imposed - a crumbling social safety net, no legal/political support for strong unions, a skewed and regressive taxation system, and the worst health care system in the developed world. We Americans (as a whole) created or tolerated these barriers. Unless we deal with them, our economy will indeed be in permanent decline. If we eliminate these barriers, as most other developed countries have, there is no reason we can't rebound economically and do as well other countries with strong unions, effective health care, progressive taxation and a strong social safety net.

[EmilyKent]

24. Decline, yes.

Automation, globalization, the knowledge economy are all major changes in the world.

I know it doesn't make you feel any better, but other countries are going through the same thing.

Permanent, no, not unless people refuse to change, but there'll be a lot of displacement before everyone gets back on their feet.

[Subdivisions]

25. Yes, it is. n/t

[JCMach1]

29. In transition... from an oil and uber-consumer based society

to something new...

and yeah, it's gonna be a bit painful.

[tsuki]

35. Yes.

[AngryAmish]

36. Demographically, yes

Our largest age cohort, the Baby Boomers, is getting old. They vote. Ultimately they get to decide which way our nation will go.

It means less demand for housing. Fewer people with families, more demand for condos. Older people take fewer risks. That means less money in stock, ore in bonds. P/E ratios will get back in line with historic norms. Fewer goods purchased - older people buy less stuff. Fewer commuters, fewer cars bought.

Taxes will remain high. Nothing will be done to curb entitlements (catfood commission notwithstanding.)

Want to see a real wrenching change? Wait until they can grow a good steak in a vat cheaper than raising it naturally. Land will become much less valuable - less pastureland. Rural land value fall. Cities grow.

[w4rma]

38. Yes. If the status quo is kept. (nt)

[Martin Eden]

40. No, I don't think the economy is in PERMANENT decline

First, my definition of the ECONOMY is the standard of living for the greatest number of people.

Unfortunately I think this will continue to decline for a number of years.

I also think eventually there will be a turnaround -- but this depends on several unpredictable factors which include a more functional democracy with better informed citizens.

I don't know if our standard of living(average household income) will bounce back to what it was before GW Bush took office, but I think human beings wherever they live have the capacity to comprehend their situation and take positive action.

Ultimately, quality of life (as opposed to the traditional monetary standard of living measure)should be very achievable. The primary obstacles are political & societal, and the world's history is full of changes in those spheres.

[closeupready]

41. No, but I think our global position relative to the rest of the world IS.

In other words, we can still be prosperous but other states can be, too. It's not mutually exclusive.

[EC]

44. It will be if the corps win completely..

Unions are making gains...I read in the paper weekly of new shops voting to go union...we have a chance, but keeping Dems in government is a big part of slowing the corps progress...

[sofa king]

45. Yes.

Humans have burned off the easy half of the world's stored hydrocarbons. According to anthropologist Jared Diamond, humans are already burning the equivalent of half of all the energy the sun directs at us in a given day (thanks to the prehistoric bank account of oil).

The current world oil infrastructure scarcely keeps up with demand today, with at least two huge and growing economies (China and India) better positioned than the United States to control virtually all of it.

No real effort has been made to put an alternative energy infrastructure in place in the U.S.; a fraction of a percent of all that easy energy is directed into alternative energy replacements. It won't be enough. Theoretical maximum production will fall off steadily, year after year, further undercut by climactic disasters and loss of irreplaceable infrastructure, until we're all wearing leather chaps and football pads.

As soon as the world energy economy collapses, or sooner if the U.S. is muscled out of their cut of the Middle East and South Asia's oil production, the U.S. economy will totally implode, with local economies forced to look to their own subsistence. With no oil to pump back into our soil in the form of fertilizer, pumped water, and equipment, crops will be smaller, and the U.S. won't even be able to profit from an agrarian surplus. There simply won't be any free energy anymore, and without the free energy, all humankind's endeavors shall be redirected to local survival.

There is only one solution to keep things going at the current pace, without a mass die-off of humanity and all the irreversible decline that entails. Modern society exists by using far more energy than we can realistically expect to capture from the sun here on earth. So we have to go outside of the earth (or inside of it) to introduce additional energy into the system. Any solution of that type will introduce more heat and pollution, just as oil already does today.

But if the problems could be accounted for and dealt with, covering the Moon with solar panels and then beaming that power back to earth in the form of microwaves might be one reasonably safe alternative solution that would guarantee economic growth for a long time. But that will never happen because people will insist on spending their money on the problems here on earth, or be easily frightened by the possibility of someone misusing the "death rays" from space, which ironically will condemn them to a short and toilsome life on the earth they have already damaged beyond easy repair.

[bvar22]

47. The Decline will continue until..

..The Working Class & The Poor, Democrats & Republicans, realize that WE have more in common with each other than we have in common with the Ruling Elite of BOTH Political Parties.
Only then will real CHANGE be possible.

[Uncle Joe]

48. No, there is a season for everything.

I don't know how long the economic decline will last because I believe that's largely up to the actions of the American People but I don't believe it will be permanent.

I do believe we're still in control of our ultimate destiny, unlike some less fortunate nations.

I also believe if we are to turn things around, especially for the long term, there will need to be serious structural change, we have too many dysfunctional institutions; ie; for profit health insurance, for profit prisons, for profit mercenaires and the legalized bribery of Congress to name a few.

Thanks for the thread, Stinky.

[mmonk]

49. Not if this country changes course.

Milton Friedman is not some sort of god nor his theories incontrovertible science and neither is Jack Kemp or Grover Norquist.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

50. For our lifetimes? I think so.

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[OhioChick]

52. Yes

The blue collar jobs aren't coming back from China and the white collar aren't coming back form India.

What's left...green jobs?
They're already in China and India.

[Larry Ogg]

54. Yes I believe the economy is in permanent decline!

I also believe it is part of a very deliberate plan to eliminate the middle class,
before the phrase "predator class" is heard with increasing frequency...

[county worker]

55. I don't know the word to use but the pie is getting smaller.

Maybe we should say that GDP is smaller and that's OK.

The pie is getting smaller and some people will not get even a little piece. it is like the Titanic. Those in the life boats are part of the new economy. Those left on the ship will soon be forgotten.

[beforeyoureyes]

58. Yes. This country is heading towards second world nation status.

The global corporate playing field is being leveled to enslave everyone to the rich.

Until there is a REAL movement towards equality and sharing in this nation, nothing is going to change. It is getting worse right before our eyes.