Economic downturn defying solutions
Latest data raise fears of 'double dip,' if there ever was a recovery
The economy is still growing, but just barely. The latest wave of downbeat economic data, including Friday’s report on gross domestic product, have renewed fears that we could be headed for the second half of a “double dip” recession.
It is even possible that the apparent economic recovery is a mirage, and that the recession that began in December 2007 never really ended.
Increasingly it seems that the unprecedented measures taken in 2008 and 2009 to revive the economy are not working because the recession is unlike any this country has seen in the past 60 years.
“After all the monetary, fiscal and bailout stimulus, the economy should be roaring ahead, as would be the case if the economy were coming out of a normal garden-variety recession,” Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg wrote in a recent note to clients. “The fact that there has been no sustained response to all these efforts by the government to turn things around is testament to the view that this is not actually a traditional recession at all."
After the housing bust of 2007 and financial meltdown of 2008 brought a sharp contraction in growth, the government responded with time-tested policy responses. Those included $1 trillion of stimulus spending and tax cuts, together with the Fed’s $1.25 trillion cash infusion into a shaky mortgage market. For good measure, Congress approved $700 billion to bail out the battered banking system
The jolt of cash flowing through the system produced a surge of growth late last year that carried into 2010. That growth spurt prompted many economists, investors and policymakers to declare that a recovery was under way.
But a recent string of gloomy economic data has prompted second thoughts about the nature of this recovery. The latest read on the nation’s gross domestic product was revised sharply lower Friday. The government'sGDP data showed an anemic growth rate on 1.6 percent, from an initial reading of 2.4 percent.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38871203/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/