Tropical Storm Earl now a hurricane

[malaise]

Her history is troubling and unless he slows down significantly, somewhere on the mainland will be hit.


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[babylonsister]

1. Which one of those little islands are you on, and are

you out of the path? (Yea, D-- in geography:))

[NutmegYankee]

3. He's on the little one under the eastern end of Cuba. nt

[malaise]

6. She thank you

:D

Jamaica - this one shouldn't be our problem - I'll be looking our for Gaston even though he hasn't rolled off Africa yet.

[NutmegYankee]

20. Woops

Sorry about that! :hi:

[malaise]

38. No biggie

:D

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

43. Who's F?

[northernlights]

50. Fiona nt

[old mark]

2. It is projected to swing north and the Carolinas are inside its range...

If it passes over Delaware and NJ, we will probably get some of the rain and minor wind in PA - we get at one or two a season.

mark

[malaise]

8. Yep the Carolinas better keep an eye on this one

Invest 97 (soon to be Fiona) is coming quickly on it's heels.

[annabanana]

4. Oh lordy lordy

South Shore of L.I. here..

(I hate hurricane season..)

[old mark]

9. Get your flashlight batteries NOW...nt

[KittyWampus]

15. HEY NEIGHBOR! We need the rain something fierce though.

[malaise]

19. Here's my worry

Models versus actual history

[deminks]

5. Earl just now upgraded to hurricane

Watching the weather channel this morning (they have fairly good Katrina coverage) and they just upgraded Earl at 7:50 am CDT. Surface winds just over 75 mph.

[malaise]

7. Thanks

Changed the subject

[Cetacea]

10. And "Fiona " is now right on his heels

I have a bad feeling about these new systems.
Thank you for your periodic weather updates.

[malaise]

12. You're welcome

I'm worried about the one behind soon to be Fiona. Male storms love Jamaica. :D

[Cirque du So-What]

11. Stay safe, everyone!

Off topic, I know, but a map projection like the one above still amazes me - especially the relative positions of land in the Americas & in Europe & Africa. Spain & Portugal are on the same parallels with North Carolina up to the middle Atlantic seaboard, while France goes as far north as Newfoundland. The British Isles are roughly in-line with Labrador. Good thing they've got the Gulf Stream, huh? Icelanders appreciate it too!

[TBF]

13. Almost September -

that's when we start stockpiling supplies down here in South Texas, and preparing for "Hurricane Vacation" in case we need to evacuate.

[malaise]

14. Yes if you're on the Atlantic, Caribbean or GOM coast

you'd better be ready from the end of August through October.



NOAA Graphic

[Warpy]

16. This one is set to hit New England.

Hurricanes generally lose strength after they leave the Gulf Stream, but they still have the potential to wreck a lot of stuff when they hit that far north.

I have the photos to prove it.

[pipi_k]

17. Hurricanes of 1955...

I had a couple of booklets with photos showing what happened all the way up here in south central Massachusetts.

Scary stuff

[malaise]

18. You may be right

:hi:

[NutmegYankee]

21. I'm definitely watching this one from the Connecticut shoreline nt

[Warpy]

22. I tend to think outer Cape Cod will feel it most

but who knows? My crystal ball is often cloudy when it comes time to foretell where a hurricane is going to go.

[NutmegYankee]

23. If it goes straight up, it would cross LI and hit us.

It looks like it may curve out, but it's still uncertain... The Great Hurricane of 1938 did just that.

[KittyWampus]

42. We got hit with that 38 Hurricane. Eastern LI on south shore was devastated

[malaise]

40. This is one big ass hurricane

and somewhere is going to get hit

[Warpy]

41. I just hope it's not Haiti, not even with the storm out to sea

because too many people there are still living under tarps.

Yes, they can be crammed in like sardines inside the cement buildings still standing or which have been repaired, but I wouldn't wish that sort of thing on Cheney.

[malaise]

46. I'd wish it on Cheney

Haiti will be lucky this time. The North East will face rain but the worst part of Earl will miss them.


Meanwhile there's a new storm in town - Fiona

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201008.html

[pipi_k]

24. I just looked at the NOAA site...

it has the middle of the cone of probability heading straight up the Connecticut River...

Things could get nasty for CT, RI, and MA...


Are you anywhere near the mouth of the CT river, also?

[NutmegYankee]

26. I'm a few miles to the East.

[pipi_k]

31. OK, yep...I know the general area... n/t

[malaise]

47. Looks like you're right

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast is nearly non-existent over Earl--just 4 knots--but is expected to increase to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, tonight through Thursday afternoon, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This shear should not appreciably affect Earl between now and Thursday, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content highly favorable for continued intensification. Earl should continue to intensify until reaching Category 4 or 5 strength on Tuesday, and will probably maintain major hurricane status through Thursday, when it will make its closest approach to North Carolina. The hurricane will probably undergo at least one eyewall replacement cycle during that period, which will diminish its winds by 20 - 30 mph for a day or so. By Friday, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[alfredo]

25. 5 day forcast. Cape Cod residents, pay attention.

[starroute]

27. This map is the one to be nervous about

On edit: Deleted the image, since I saw it had already been posted while I was still copying-and-pasting.

But yes, those red dots are getting scary.

[malaise]

36. The models for this one anticipated a slower storm

which meant another system would push this North.

It's still moving quickly so we shall soon see. My fear is that it will turn North but too late to prevent some impact on the mainland. I hope I'm wrong.

I've going to check out the comments on Jeff Masters blog - some great weather folks post there.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1591&tstamp=&page=19

[Strelnikov_]

28. And the models were showing that Ike was going to curve out into the Atlantic

The models used today are amazing, but they depend on projections of numerous climatic features.

If I remember correctly, something moved/dissipated sooner than anticipated, and it was lookout Houston.

The moment of truth for Earl, is rapidly approaching.

[NutmegYankee]

30. The jitters up here is a repeat of 1938.

The great hurricane of 1938 got trapped between the Bermuda High and a front over the Appalachian Mountains and was forced north at ~50 MPH hitting LI, NY and then New Haven, CT as a Cat 3 with winds of 120-125 MPH. It devastated the coastline where I now live.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Hurricane_of_1938

[Strelnikov_]

32. Based on todays models, FEMA should be preparing

for a massive eastern seaboard event, as you reference.

As time compresses, resources can be shifted as required.

Its risk management. Like global warming, prudent managers do not wait until major hurricanes are proved 100% certain to make preparations.

Edit to add: Especially considering that that last few years the models seem to be consistently under estimating energy (strength).

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

44. For some reason I think it'll hit the Carolinas. -nt

[Baclava]

49. the models are based on current weather input

Earl is caught betwen two high pressure zones - up the east coast he goes - the models are all pretty tight on this.
It's going to get swept up by the same conditions that just blew Hurricane Danielle out to sea



Cape Verde storms are pretty predictable this time of year, historically - except for Ike





and Andrew






Fiona could be trouble, it's coming right along the same path, with more time to build, and in Earls wake

see Andrew - 1992


or we could have 3 fish storms back to back to back - that's a good bet too

[Strelnikov_]

53. ..

Screw it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

29. You folks stay safe

ok.

[theHandpuppet]

33. Yep. Start preparing now.

Don't wait until the last minute. It's never a bad idea to have emergency supplies on hand, anyway. Water, batteries, medications, non-perishable foods, etc.

[Strelnikov_]

34. And he hasn't even started feeding yet

[nadinbrzezinski]

35. Oh fuck!!!!

That don't look good at all.

[malaise]

39. RIght now all I'm hoping is that Earl turns North

Haiti cannot take a hurricane now. Turn Earl turn.

[hootinholler]

37. It's been a few years since anything north of the Carolinas have been hit

We're due for one.

-Hoot

[raccoon]

45. That means it's someone else's turn! Just kidding. nt

[Omar4Dems]

48. Am I wrong, but doesn't the OP map show it to be a cat 4?

That pink mark, that's where it's at now, right? Category 4? Puerto Rico must be getting doused with rain right about now.

[slackmaster]

51. You're not wrong. Here's the latest IR still image from NOAA.

[malaise]

58. The Bahamas will take big hit

Damn!

[northernlights]

52. yes, Earl turned Cat 4 today nt

[alfredo]

54. Looks like the cold front is not steering it clear of the

coast.

[KittyWampus]

57. not unlikely we'll get some of the wind/rain.

[Dappleganger]

55. Hunker down!

Makes sure you have plenty of batteries, toilet paper, junk food as well as easy to make food. If your electricity goes out it's a good idea to have your propane grill on hand to help cook the meals (have a filled spare can on hand).

[stuntcat]

56. better stay the f. away from Northern VA :(((((

please please please :beg: We're trying to finish building our pond this week :*