On the November elections...

[nadinbrzezinski]

Well while I was preparing material for that silly class (no money, so no teaching job for this semester) I found an interesting trend. Polls.... are not as reliable as they used to be.

Ok so why?

How many of you receive oh marketing calls that you hang the phone on?

<------------ ME

Have you ever hung up on a pollster?

Yes.

Seems I am not alone. So between that trend, and a younger demographic no longer on... land lines, who is answering your pollsters questions tends to be older, female and white...

So in the eyes of some political scientists the error could be large enough for Dewey vs Trumman errors.

Now this means that if (best case) they are that off, we might be in for a pleasant surprise... and if this is the case... the GOP has entered the Whig phase... and if that happens, well expect changes over the next two to three electoral cycles, including the rise of a new conservative party... read DLC with Moderate Republicans.

Now I am just passing this, as a POSSIBILITY, not as written in stone. Personally we are at a point that we have been before in US History... but will see how that develops... what is not like usual is that the US is actually a declining Empire... so that is the kind of difference that will make things damn interesting, oh and possibly scary.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Kick

[Jackpine Radical]

2. That was shameless, Nadin.

Better let me do if for you.

:kick: And that R thing too.

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. You know what is funny?

I just hung up on yet another pollster.

[Jackpine Radical]

9. My wife just got a push poll call after I posted the above.

It was for a Republican state senate candidate. Or more correctly, against the Democrat.

[csziggy]

16. I love answering poll questions

But then I have lots of time these days.

Hubby and I pretty much fit in the "Other" category for any questionnaire so any poll I respond to will be skewed at least a little. When I get a push poll, I tend to refuse to answer the questions or simply select answers at random. More than one poll I complained since they had no category that was as far left as I wanted to answer.

For some strange reason the Republican, right wing pollsters have stopped calling me, though they did for a while.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. re: not as reliable as they used to be

Is polling more common? Are more local races being polled than usual?

Are we talking about primaries? Are primaries more difficult to poll in general? Do primaries have a lower claimed-likely to actual voter disparity?

Do more people hang up on pollsters on one side or the other?

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. All of the above

and the hanging on them trend comes from the direct marketing firms. People simply don't have time for that. So you get a pretty self selected group (on either side) that feel strongly enough to actually answer the pollsters. I found that interesting actually.

[LiberalAndProud]

5. I was pondering that myself.

Unrecognized numbers go unanswere on my phone. Also those that identify as "Research Center".

Margins of error have to be high.

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. They are higher than they used to be

they are not sure yet how much higher though.

I need to go find more of those papers in places like the Political Science Review... and other places... I mean I have a full semester now to prepare five courses... hoping I get a job next semester.

Of course we cannot rely on this.

[Ozymanithrax]

8. I think Polls are use to drive opinion more than they are for discovering opinion...

This is true of the scientific and unscientific polls.

Just another tool for the sheepdogs to keep the sheep in line.

If 6 out of 10 people say it, man it must be true.

[Jackpine Radical]

10. I was polled a day or 2 ago.

Gave Obama high marks, of course, even though that isn't necessarily how I feel. There was no way of registering criticism from the left, and I was't about to give them grounds for misrepresenting my disagreements with the administration as coming from the right.

[iamjoy]

12. Yeah, There's That

It's hard to admit to Conservatives that I'm not thrilled with President Obama. My disappointments with him are that he has been too conservative. I would hate for a high "disapproval" rating to be used as justification for a move further to the right.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. And that is another observation

if you design a poll on oh national health care one way... do you believe Medicare for All is a good idea? You will get oh approval in the high 60s to low 70s... hell even among self identified Republicans this is a clear majority in the high fifties.

As the same question for oh the democrats want national health care... the numbers drop FAST and hard.

So the country is center left, just does not know it...

Propaganda works.

And yes, that happened during the debate last year. It drove me NUTS!

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. And that is why people don't answer any more

we all have become rather cynical too.

[Ozymanithrax]

15. Cynical or busy, it leads to the same thing.

Everybody uses polls to create an impression that will drive voters. People chosing ot lie to a polster rather than tell a truth that will be misused makes for some skewed polling.

[depakid]

14. The short answer is that they're not meant to reflect public opinion any longer

but only to influence it.

Part and parcel to the culture of lies that's flourished in America due to media consolidation and deregulation.

Dishonesty is not discouraged- but instead rewarded.