Raleigh, N.C. – Joe Miller’s surprising victory in Tuesday’s Republican Senate primary
has given Democrats at least a glimmer of hope in Alaska, although that would fade if the
defeated Lisa Murkowski ends up running in the general election as the Libertarian
candidate.
Miller leads Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 47-39. McAdams benefits from a
more united party, getting 81% of the Democratic vote to Miller’s 73% of the
Republicans. The candidates split even with independents at 42%, a good number for
Democrats in a year where their candidates are largely getting blown out with that group
of voters.
In a three way race with Murkowski running as a Libertarian Miller would still lead but
with only 38% to 34% for Murkowski and 22% for McAdams. The folks who go for
Murkowski favor McAdams 47-23 in a two way contest so somewhat counterintuitively
she would actually hurt Democratic chances even though she’d de facto make it a race
with 2 Republicans and a Democrat.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AK_829.pdf