Republicans take largest generic ballot polling lead ever (since 1942)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The "generic ballot" question is used every mid-term.

"Do you plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican?"

Democrats always have to lead this poll because we have a natural advantage of up about 5%. That's our break-even level. So any Republican lead is a bad, bad thing. For instance, in 1994 pugs got a 5% lead and took congress. (We vote a little less regularly and we are more concentrated in our safe districts. Lots of "wasted" Dem votes in cities.)

Gallup today reports that for the first time in the history of this polling set (since the polling series started in 1942) Republicans lead Democrats by 10%.

Republicans have never led by double digits before. (Dems, on the other hand, had a 32 point advantage right before Nixon resigned... which is probably why Nixon was encouraged out by congressional pugs)

God only knows what congressional Dems will do in response. Probably a curcular firing squad of some sort, but I hope there will be some call for a major economic initiative. Probably wouldn't pass or help much in the election, but it's better than appearing to do nothing.







Enthusiasm? Pugs twice as likely as Dems to say they are very enthusiastic.




http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[aquart]

1. Nobody wants to vote for a whipped wimp.

[yurbud]

16. more like a self-flaggelating wimp

[Blue Owl]

2. ***Spit Take***

:spray:

[Dark]

3. This is what happens when you run from the legislation you just passed.

Part of it is just American ignorance about most complicated issues, but the pols passed the stimulus, HCR, student loan reform and banking reform. Then they ran away from it, or watered it down.

So, what did they expect to happen? That people would forget about the 6 month fight over HCR? The promises of the stimulus?

Fucking morons.

[AlinPA]

4. Ouch. We have a lot of work to do.

[Stinky The Clown]

5. I'm certain this is all the fault of those traitorous professional lefties

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. The average American reads Firedoglake every day and believes every word

:think: :think: :think:

[leeroysphitz]

9. I hope so. I don't want any one else taking credit for our "refudiation" of

This bitterly disapointing gang of fence sitting political hacks.

[Warpy]

7. Thank the DLC for this

from forcing their losing strategy on the party through Kaine to the policy of kissing up to the pubbies in Congress and allowing them to gut every piece of legislation they pass, they are our deadly enemies.

The people who say "republican" in this poll might not vote that way. They're just as disgusted with the conservatives at the center of party power as I am, and that's one hell of a lot.

The party had better wake up to how furious we all are out here in workaday country about how they allowed the pubbies to gut health care reform. That's the main thing driving the rebellion.

[MilesColtrane]

8. Race specific poll results are just as discouraging.

(from RealClearPolitics.com)

We've got lots of work to do.

[Winterblues]

10. Democrats will start airing their campaign ads this next month

Things will probably change quite a bit in the next couple of months. Obama will also be hitting the Campaign Trail and we know what kind of campaigner he is.. Don't give up just yet..two months is a long time in politics.

[Dawson Leery]

11. Obama's approval rating is moving towards 50% again.

[earthside]

12. Krugman's Perdiction.

Note the last paragraph of Paul Krugman's column yesterday:

If I were President Obama, I’d be doing all I could to head off this prospect, offering some major new initiatives on the economic front in particular, if only to shake up the political dynamic. But my guess is that the president will continue to play it safe, all the way into catastrophe.

It’s Witch-Hunt Season - Paul Krugman/New York Times; August 29, 2010

There is a Congressional catastrophe looming for Democrats, as the Gallup Poll indicates.

And, Pres. Obama is giving a prime time television address tomorrow on ... Iraq.

It is almost September, time is running out. There isn't any economic 'recovery' for middle and working class Americans, yet Pres. Obama keeps talking about a 'recovery'. Nothing is deadlier for a politician than to look out-of-touch ... but that is what the President is looking like more and more.

Sadly, the folks who will bear the brunt of Obama's political clumsiness are going to be Congressional Democrats. I now believe that the Repuglicans will win well over forty, maybe even fifty seats.

The only chance now is if Pres. Obama comes out strong (it must mean the end of "No Drama Obama") and says that at least he and the Congressional Democrats tried, it didn't fully work and it is time now for different measures -- then announces legislation to break up the mega-banks, announces the closing of ten or twenty overseas military bases and cuts to the Pentagon budget, and that renegotiation of trade agreements is starting immediately. If he doesn't do things like this, then the Democratic Congress is over and he, himself, is likely a one termer.

[cilla4progress]

34. You are right

I am completely with you. Things have changed rather quickly and dramatically, haven't they...

[joeybee12]

42. You're right, but don't hold your breath...n/t

[BzaDem]

13. Actually, while Republicans did at one point have a 5% lead in July '94, they were TIED on election

day of '94. And that was among likely voters, not registered voters as in this case.

Democrats will probably do about 4-5 points worse among Likely voters (looking at polling history and the enthusiasm gap).

That means if the election were held today, we would be doing 14-15 points worse than we did on election day '94 (when we lost 54 seats).

While Gallup is quite bouncy, this result is very scary (especially for those who want progressive policies enacted). If you combine the resulting incumbency advantage with gains Republicans will get in redistricting, this could indicate a Republican majority in the house for years to come (though obviously not permanent). Hopefully this would be somewhat mitigated by the fact that they are electing complete loons to the House that might lose in future years less skewed towards the Repubs.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. Bracing analysis, but seems sound

[county worker]

41. I remember 1994 like it was yesterday. We were even with rupubs yet we stayed home in large numbers

and they didn't. They had a gimmick, the contract on America.

It almost seems to me that we have a death wish.

[Nite Owl]

15. Anyone who thinks this is

just some poll or just an anomaly get out and canvas and talk to people. They are angry, they are ready to throw the bums out even if the GOP policies were bad they want to teach the dems a lesson that they had better listen to us. The banking bill is mentioned a lot, they wanted to see the banks broken up and people punished, the health care bill doesn't rate too well either.

[cilla4progress]

35. Yah - my rates just went up $100 -

and I'm LAID OFF! Plays real well with me, let me tell you...

[yurbud]

17. the GOP vampire had stumbled into the sunlight and was frying before the Democrats eyes

they dragged the smoldering corpse back to safety and nursed it back to health with bipartisanship that wasn't reciprocated instead of putting a stake through its withered, deformed heart by investigating, prosecuting, and more importantly, making foundational reforms that would have made repeats of their abuses impossible.

If Republicans retake Congress, whatever damage they do will be the fault of Obama and Democrats who tried to outsmart their base by protecting Wall Street, insurance, and corporate assholes, and trying to convince us that we should be grateful for microchanges with a thick layer of platitudes.

[tritsofme]

18. Republicans appear poised to takeover the House.

This number is absolutely scary. Since WWII, every time the House has flipped, so did the Senate. This is the first week I am thinking this is going to be the more than likely outcome. I am not looking forward to the jobs report coming out on Friday, I just don't know where any good news is going to come from before the election, things seem to be getting worse.

A lot can change in only a few months, but http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/08/how-stable-is-generic-ballot.html">Nate Silver has suggested the generic ballot is fairly stable. But the only optimistic thing you can say about numbers like this, is that Democrats have nowhere to go but up.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

19. I didn't know that about house/senate. Thanks for the datum.

[Imajika]

21. Down 10 points in the Gallup generic ballot is ominous...

There is just no doubt about it.

We have time. Consider these polls the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Right now, it does appear a November tsunami is forming. We have 2 months to blunt it. We just need to hold the House and Senate with a few seats to spare. Seats will be lost, but we can minimize those losses if we get our act together.

[BzaDem]

22. That Senate statistic is really scary. Holding the Senate is so much more important than holding

the House.

Mainly because of appointments. With 50 votes + Biden in the Senate, Obama can nominate and the Senate can confirm scores of Democratic judicial nominees on lower courts who will remain on the court for decades. (Not to mention confirming important executive nominees like Elizabeth Warren.) While the filibuster is somewhat of a threat, if Republicans abuse it on judicial nominees I can see Biden and the 50 Democrats ending filibusters on nominees (which is why Republicans will be careful).

But with 49 or fewer Democrats, all bets are off. I could see Republicans confirming only a trickle of lower court nominees, holding the seats on the courts open for the next Republican president. The resulting future right-wing judiciary would be unprecedented, and that's saying a lot considering how right-wing our judiciary is now.

On top of this, in 2012, we have something like 23 seats to defend, many who won by tiny margins in 2006 (whereas Republicans have something like 10, of which only Scott Brown is at all vulnerable). If Republicans win the Senate in 2010 and the economy doesn't improve much by 2012, a 60-seat Republican majority is still unlikely but not out of the question.

Luckily, I don't think our chance of losing the Senate in 2010 is nearly as high as the chance of us losing the House. Of Feingold in WI, Boxer in CA, and Murray in WA, we need to win 2. I think that's doable. Nate Silver currently has the chances of this at around 80%; hopefully it stays that way.

[Imajika]

25. Your analysis is excellent...

Right on target too.

Personally I think there really isn't too much chance we lose the Senate. 80% chance to hold seems right to me. What you talked about regarding the 2012 Senate picture is disturbing. I did not realize how difficult things will be in that cycle. At least we will have Obama at the top of the ticket to drive turnout - hopefully that will prevent a worst case scenario situation from occurring.

[Hawaii Hiker]

27. Yeah, but even with the current majority we have in the senate,

Rethugs have already sent back/blocked several really good nominees...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/08/06/BAPM1EQEKI.DTL

President Obama must re-nominate these 2 and get them confirmed before year end, otherwise who knows if they'll ever get confirmed...

[BzaDem]

28. Even if Obama doesn't get EVERY appointee confirmed, getting some (many) is MUCH better

than getting few or none.

So far, 40 lower court judicial nominees have been confirmed while Obama was in Office. This is historically very low. But if Republicans get control of the Senate, the number over the next two years could be much closer to 0 than to 40 (and it could remain like this in the following Congress as well). An outcome like that could push the judiciary to the right for a generation. That's why it's so important to keep the Senate -- it will allow Obama to appoint judges to keep the balance on the lower courts from veering to the right of where they are now (and hopefully moving them left of where they are now).

[Hawaii Hiker]

29. But Obama's nominees have been moderates

Except for Goodwin Liu, who has the right in a frenzy, most of his nominees have been centrists..

The Democrats allowed the confirmation of Janice Rogers Brown, & William Pryor during Bush's admin, those 2 are very far right idealogical judges....

Well turnabout is fair play...President Obama has yet to name a real liberal to the courts, Goodwin Liu is an excellent pick and would go a long way in exciting the base, he needs to be confirmed this year....Democrats need to have this fight...Especially after Citizens United and last weeks stem cell ruling, Democrats need to realize the importance of getting these judicial nominees oonfirmed...

[quinnox]

20. Weak and wishy washy will do that

If you don't put out bold and exciting policies, then people can't respect you or will want to vote for you.

President Obama and the Democrats blew it, end of story.

Of course, it will be everyone else's fault when they get blown out in the election, they did everything right according to the true believers.

[DCBob]

23. Fools.

shocking how quickly people forget.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

24. Binary options lead to simplistic thinking

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

32. It's also amazing how many election cycles the GOP gets in full charge

As opposed to the Democrats.

[Barack2theFuture]

26. No one likes to hear it here (or anywhere else in the conservative Democratic establishment),

but as Truman said, "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time."

Too bad the House Democrats, some of whom are actually slightly liberal, will pay for the failures of the Senate and the White House.

[chill_wind]

30. I was getting to post that exact same quote FWIW

Are we really surprised?


GOP Maintains Edge in Midterm Voting Preferences
August 24, 2010

U.S. Economic Confidence Down in Recent Weeks
August 24, 2010

Obama Weekly Job Approval Average at New Low of 43%
August 23, 2010

GOP Shows Strongest Positioning Yet in 2010 Vote Test
August 17, 2010

Economy Remains Top Concern as Nov. Elections Draw Nearer
August 13, 2010

Low Approval of Congress Not Budging, Now 19%
August 11, 2010

Avg. Midterm Seat Loss 36 for Presidents Below 50% Approval
August 9, 2010

Congress Ranks Last in Confidence in Institutions
July 22, 2010

Democrats Jump Into Six-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
July 19, 2010

U.S. Satisfaction Steady at 21%, Down Among Dems
July 16, 2010

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142718/GOP-Unprecedented-Lead-Generic-Ballot.aspx

[Barack2theFuture]

33. But then a huge part of this is the corporate media

crafting the narrative for the election season

like the pro rasslers deciding who will hit the announcer with the chair, and which one will challenge the other to a grudge match or whatever.

[chill_wind]

31. K & R for a sobering thread.

Hoping to keeping this unrecced and out of immediate view isn't going to minimize the importance of this in the real political world.

[LeftinOH]

36. There a LOT of likely Dem voters who won't be voting; midterms are the neglected 'middle child'

for lots of voters, especially if those people aren't fired up about things.

[562dem]

37. please stop posting these defeatists polls!! please!

what good do they do for us?

[Stinky The Clown]

39. What harm do they do?

:shrug:

Google "meaningless"

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

46. Some folks think knowing what's going on in the world is interesting or worthwhile

[mdmc]

38. just wait until medical treatment costs go up 30% due to "reform"

sure, millions of poor people now have "insurance", and might still vote for democrats.
But what about the working poor that have insurance through their employer? Reform just adds more costs to their medical treatment. Who will those that pay more now for medical care vote for?

[Robbins]

40. Reality

Polls can be wrong.Just look at Alaska and CT.But as I keep pointing out Generic ballet should be ignored.Why Do you ask?From 1996 to
2004 Democrats lead In these yet Republicans kept Congress.Remember these facts

Back In 1982 when Reagan has worse approval ratings than Obama had now It appeared Democrats would pick up 50 seats In the House(they
had a narror majority after the reagan landslide which was the only check on Reagan) and take back the senate.On election day after
reagan's approval got from the 30's up to early 40's democrats won 26 House seats and 1 senate seat.

Back In 2006 It wasn't untill the foly scandal broke till the MSM was forced to admit Democrats could take back Congress.

Now Republicans could take back congress(at least the House) because of 3 factors

1:Low turnout by Democrats eather upset Obama Isn't getting all they wanted or because Obama Isn't on the ballet
2:Republicans eager to vote by their hated of Obama
3:Independents so eager to vote Republican since Obama hasn't fixed all the problems In the country

My advice Is turn off the MSM focus on donating,and turning out at the polls.Remember Republicans have to do better than Democrats
did In 2006/They need 39 seats In the House and 10 In the senate.back In 2006 we won 30 house seats and 6 senate seats.

If Republicans win In 2010 this will be their waterloo.Why do you ask?People will see them In Congress In control and see they are
proposing nothing and will see them Investigating and trying to Impeach Obama.Hell they may even shut down the Government again.I am
shocked Republicans and tea partyiers have never said we need to end all Government Spending except Military.When they have control
The Independents will start paying attention to them when they say Medicare and Medicaid should never have been started and Social Security should be Privatized(before anyone brings up the Socials ecurity commission remember Bush Ignored a commision that recommendened getting out of Iraq,and Obama can't make cuts In social security without having to face the right wing talking points he hates Old white people)Democrats may have to start learning how to use the fillerbuster themselves,and we may see a lot more
Vetos of bills by Obama.

Republicans taking back congress will guarante Obama's Reelection just as Gingrich reelected Bill Clinton.Romney Is the likely Republlcan Nominee since Palin,Gingrich,and Huckabee will split the right wing vote.Democrats will have field day with all of Romney's flipflops from Moderate to COnservative.Romney claimed he would be more proGay and Prochoice than Ted Kennedy back when he
was running for the senate In 1994 and as governor he brought a health care law similar to Obama's.

While I still hope Democrats can keep the congress 2010 would be a short lived victory for the Republicans.

[deaniac21]

43. Would you say the election of 1994 made for a more progressive

Clinton agenda after he was re-elected?

[Robbins]

44. Nope

But unlike 1994/1996 Democrats could retake the house In 2012 If they lose it In 2010.

[deaniac21]

45. Yeah, that is an easy call.