Predict the Fed's rate decision (due today at 11:15 a.m., Pacific Time)

[swag]

Gee, I almost forgot to run the always thrilling "Predict the Fed" thread this go-around.

My prediction: Fed holds at 5.25% with a virtually identical statement to the one they issued last time.

[no_hypocrisy]

1. The same. No increase, no decrease of rate. n/t

[pdrichards114]

2. I agree

[Yavin4]

3. WoooHoo! I Hope They Keep Rates Where They Are

I'm getting 5% on my CD and savings.

[swag]

6. Yeah, I love having decent short-term interest rates for a change.

[Jackpine Radical]

4. It's unanimous.

However, careful observers will now be betting on a change either up or down, because I have a consistent track record of never being right. Th infamous Jackpine Factor is about to strike again.

[swag]

5. Okay, well they hold at 5.25% and there's not much difference in the statement.

Fed Leaves Main Interest Rate at 5.25%, Restates Inflation Risk

Gee, that was a hard call.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axnYO_rbcBFA&refer=home

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark U.S. interest rate at 5.25 percent and said it's still leaning toward tightening credit if needed to reduce inflation.

``Some inflation risks remain,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said today after meeting in Washington. ``The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.''

Ben S. Bernanke, ending his first year as chairman, is keeping his guard up against inflation while avoiding a rate increase that may hurt the economy. Hours before the Fed's decision, a government report showed economic growth picked up last quarter from a slowdown. Other figures showed manufacturing and construction still struggling.

``Recent indicators have suggested somewhat firmer economic growth, and some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market,'' the Fed said. ``Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.''

Today's 11-0 vote extends the Fed's period of inactivity to seven months, the longest stretch without a change since June 2004, when the Fed ended a yearlong freeze at 1 percent. Policy makers are counting on the economy slowing enough to reduce inflation.