Dewey vs Truman redux?

[nadinbrzezinski]

Well now we have Murckowsky (sp)pushed out by the certain brand of crazee the GOP is running this year.

Add to that the fact that polls are not reaching quite a bit of the population, no land line, no pollster will bug you, and I have slammed down my phone on them.

Realize the polls in 1948 were all kinds of wrong regarding Trumman-Dewey, because MOST people did not have phones. These days the wrong phones are getting reached.

My gut tells me that when all is said and done the talking heads will eat their words, and the democrats will keep both houses. Yes, been thinking about this, and think about it this way...

Reid should have gone down... but Angle is a special brand of crazee... better vote for the bad Dem than the crazee that is truly scary.

I've seen the Boxer Fiorina polls, but even in this town I've heard REPUBLICANS angry at her for trying to buy it... (and boxer has not started spending yet)... oh and the Governors job, same story. Oh and like Alaska... the GOP has closed primaries, and in California 55% of voters are indies, while in Alaska that is over 70%.

I think we may be heading for a Dewey Trumman scenario. No, not because Dems are stellar (some are, I love Boxer)... but because the other side is truly fielding the crazee...

The consequences if I am right will be interesting, perhaps even dangerous. (See Sharon's statement about Second Amendment Remedies), but that is a risk I'm willing to take.

Oh and Rove being annoyed that Obama acted Presidential... well he knows his boss started the war and this guy just accomplished a promise... that ain't good for ya if you are a Republican... in the real world. And yes, I do hope my gut is right on this, but for a while polls have been increasingly unreliable... I think we've reached the point of MOE above statistical error... which is ... what happened in Dewey vs Trumman.

[Dawson Leery]

1. We can work for this.

[Capn Sunshine]

2. I think you may have something there

I talk to people every day , out in the world, once I get away from the Trading Floor and WSJ types.
There are LOTS of PO'd people, but most of them think that the tea party is fucking crazy. And return the car to the morons that drove it off the cliff? Really? In what world?

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. You know it is bad

when even the local curmudgeon admits the tea party is wrong... and crazee. (And that is purely anecdotal) But they scare him... he was a card carrying member UNTIL he went to a couple events...

[rpannier]

3. I would add it's a generic poll

If you said to me today, "Are going to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2010 election" I'd say Democratic.
If the choices were Zell Miller (D) or Lincoln Chafee (R) I'd vote for Chafee because he's not crazy.

They should ask, if the Republican was a Tea Bagger would you vote for him or her?

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Well the generic been done for a while

but this is going to be interesting in all kinds of way.

[rpannier]

13. Maybe so

But these numbers have become very different once the candidate in announced (especially when it's a tea party crank). Harry Reid is one of the best examples. The Kentucky Senate race is another.

In the past, most of the people running were fairly generic and did not espouse the things that the Tea Party is pushing everywhere.

So, IMLHO, a generic poll is a waste of time

[Kringle]

6. Bush, was the best thing the Dems had in '06 and '08

not sure about '10

[nadinbrzezinski]

7. He's been replaced by the special brand of crazee that is

the Tea Party.

When miller says... SS is not Constitutional and needs to be abolished, how do you think seniors will vote in Alaska? Statistically they vote more often in off year elections.

And that is not just Miller either...

[Blue_In_AK]

8. Murkowski conceding to Miller

was the best possible thing that could have happened for Alaska Democrats. With very, very little statewide name recognition, Scott McAdams only trailed Joe Miller by 8 points -- and that was BEFORE all the "oldest profession" tweets and Miller's car wreck in Fairbanks on election day and all the histrionics of the past few days. Murkowski's people are NOT going to flock to Miller -- I just don't see it happening.

I just love the thought of Alaska with two Democratic senators. And maybe even a Democratic governor. What a concept!

Like Shannyn Moore says, "painting a red state blue one stroke at a time." :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Yeah but I think we are going to be ahem

surprised nation wide. Ok, not us paying attention... the talking heads on the TV.

The ongoing narrative has been way off...

Oh and a blue AK will be nice to see.

Hell, correct me if I am wrong, but early reps to the House and Senate were Dems

[Blue_In_AK]

10. Yes, you are correct.

Alaska was strongly Democratic in the early days of statehood, and we have one of the most progressive and, dare I say it, socialist state constitutions in the country. It's a wonderful constitution, full of all kinds of privacy protections and allowing for citizen ownership of the resources.

The Alaska territorial legislature passed a civil rights law in 1945, 20 years before the national Civil Rights Act. Individual rights and liberties have always been very important here.

Miller is too exclusionary, too mean, actually, to gain much support here. He appeals to a certain fundy base -- but Alaska ranks 49th in the country for religiosity. That stuff just doesn't sell here.

I feel good about November.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. That makes two of us

and not just about Alaska.

I will enjoy the Dewey defeats Truman moment...

I really will.

[caledesi]

12. me too....i feel great about the dems! it isn't 1993! nt

[quaker bill]

14. Repugs are easily mislead

McSame thought he was going to get angry Hillary Clinton voters because he paid too much attention to the MSM. The narritive "do you really want to give these guys back the keys to the car?" is about to be heard and heard alot. The time to dissect and dismantle what they are proposing has commenced. It is still entirely possible for the repugs to lose this one badly.

[anarch]

15. I hope so...I mean, I don't intend to vote for the Democratic party at this point,

but I sure as hell will vote against the Republicans.

Not that I even have a vote this year, living in DC, but I would guess there are a great many like me throughout the country. Just because the loonies make a lot of noise does not mean they are converting reasonable people to their poorly articulated (but clearly insane) position.