Hurricane Earl Re-Strenthens To Catagory 4 !!!

[WillyT]

Earl strengthens to Category 4 storm
State of emergency declared from North Carolina to Maryland
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 1, 2010 | 6:40 PM ET

<snip>

Hurricane Earl has strengthened again to a Category 4 hurricane as it continues its path toward the U.S. East Coast.

The storm had top sustained winds of 217 km/hr as it threatened to bring heavy winds, rain and high waves and force thousands of tourists from two vacation islands in North Carolina.

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland declared a state of emergency.

U.S. National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane warning at 11 a.m. ET that extended northward into Cape Henlopen, Del. An earlier warning had extended only from Bogue Inlet, N.C., to the North Carolina-Virginia border.

Forecasters predicted the core of the hurricane would pass east and northeast of the Bahamas on Wednesday.

As of 2 p.m. ET, Earl was churning 440 kilometres east of Abaco Island in the Bahamas and travelling at approximately 28 kilometres an hour.

It was expected to reach the North Carolina coast late Thursday and wheel to the northeast, staying offshore while making its way up the Eastern Seaboard.

But forecasters said it could move in closer, perhaps coming ashore in North Carolina, crossing New York's Long Island and passing over the Boston metropolitan area and Cape Cod.

That could make the difference between modestly wet and blustery weather on the one hand and a dangerous storm surge, heavy rain and hurricane-force winds on the other.

The storm could make landfall anywhere between Maine and Cape Breton, N.S., the Canadian Hurricane Centre said.

<snip>

More: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/09/01/hurricane-earl-east-coast.html



Careful out there...

:grouphug:

[Junkdrawer]

1. Weather Channel thinks it may be a 5 by the next update. n/t

[RandomThoughts]

3. Expected, do they have a catagory above 5?

Then again, read alot of posts about some hurricane in gulf a week or so ago, and it never happened, so :shrug:

Who knows????

[Posteritatis]

4. The scale's based on damage caused; there's little point to going beyond 5

Andrew was a 5, and if a stronger storm hit the same place the end results would be about the same.

[Lisa0825]

7. It takes a lot of energy to sustain a cat 4 or 5, which is why they usually downgrade

and depending on how far from land, go up, down, back up, back down. Hopefully I will go back down again before getting closer to land. My sister is n NC near the coast of the river.

[Geoff R. Casavant]

15. I think it's based on wind speed.

But you're right, once you get to 5 there's really no point in wondering how much faster it can get.

Though I wonder if the spinning might create some kind of turbulence that stops it from exceeding a certain speed.

[pipi_k]

16. It is...

and the damage part of it is what can be expected in each category.


Which is different from tornadoes, which can only be judged from F-0 to F-5 afterward, when the tornado has passed and the damage is viewed. F-5 is "total devastation"...which, as you said, there's no point in giving a higher rating...can't get much worse than that.

[PBS Poll-435]

19. You are correct. Based on wind speed. Not "consumption" like a Tornado

The Saffir-Simpson scale is based on sustained wind speed.

[NeedleCast]

29. No, it's not, it's based on sustained wind speed

[happyslug]

21. Present theory is that Category five is as high as a Hurricane can go

Present theory holds that once a Hurricane hits category five, by the time the speed of the winds would justify a higher level, the wind speed would have destroyed the Hurricane itself by tearing the Hurricane apart (i.e. the center of the Hurricane can NOT hold together if the wind speed gets to much higher then a Category Five). Computer models tend to support this theory but we have never seen one do so in real life.

[Baclava]

39. The Weather Channel is disaster porn waiting to happen

It's all about the ratings you know.....did you see Stephanie Abrams out there in her tight, swollen t-shirt, ready to get wet?


I perdict..........


It'll skim the outer banks and head straight for...

New
York
City


Hurricane on Broadway! - 10,000 possible deaths from falling glass from skyscrapers!


It'll be a Weather Channel Megadisasterpalooza

[Xipe Totec]

2. And I'll be in the White Mountains, again, above tree line when it hits.

It's Ernesto All over again..

[depakid]

9. Why on earth would you purposefully do that?

[hedgehog]

5. And now we have Gaston following up after Fiona!

[WillyT]

6. Yep... Africa Is Just Spittin 'Em Out Now...

:shrug:

:hi:

[Junkdrawer]

8. If you build it, they will come....

The water off the east cost of the US from Florida to NC is exceptionally warm this year.

[WillyT]

10. You Got That Right !!!

:scared:

:hi:

[northernlights]

23. the water in Maine has been exceptionally warm this year

and I don't believe the current "high pressure" will hold Earl east. Our usual August highs are dry air with cool to cold (blanket-worthy) nights. This week it's been 90s and high, high humidity all week.

[Crystal Clarity]

30. Yup. They're even letting school out early due to the heat.

Very hot (and dry) for Maine. I've never seen the lake and river this low.

[northernlights]

32. I heard that at work last night

I grew up in PA -- this kind of heat and humidity was the norm from May through Sept. I remember sitting in classrooms sweltering. No a/c. No FANS even. I guess kids up here are better equipped to deal with 15 below than 90 above.

But seriously, this summer has been record-breaking, I'm sure. All week I've spent my mornings at the nearby pond with my dogs, all 3 of us submerged :D

[GreenPartyVoter]

37. Yep, just a miserable week. Supposed to be much better next week.

[RandomThoughts]

12. And not about a current news topic.

Dude Bowling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrLLdNuOESk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiQmQhA-OrM



I had my rug peed on years ago...

[northernlights]

14. and another 'tropical wave' forming just east of Gaston...

shaping up to be an interesting week or two :o

[bdamomma]

24. its like an assembly line of systems.

[WillyT]

11. Latest Advisory...

000
WTNT32 KNHC 012347
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL THREATENING THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 73.5W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Jamastiene]

13. Please let it go back out to sea.

One little thing could blow it further inland and NC is gonna get a direct hit at this point, if that happens.

:scared:

[malaise]

17. Moving NNW

now - very good news for the coast.

[Baclava]

35. NC doppler radar is showing outer bands now

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. Local Raleigh weather geek Greg Fishel is concerned it could indeed make NC landfall -

he did a good analysis tonight - said that a storm as powerful as Earl can create its own local environment, so may not be sufficiently impacted by the off the coast High to turn sufficiently NW, then N. He sounded quite concerned. We lived through Fran in 1996 - no fun at all. Not that Raleigh will be impacted at all...but it is going to make a mess out of the Outer Banks if it does indeed take a slightly more westward path. One to watch...good thing they evacuated Hatteras and Ocracoke (our favorite place in the world!!!)

[Baclava]

20. pressure keeps dropping - bad news

930 MB...27.46 INCHES - wow - that's getting into 'Andrew' territory

wobble wobble - another jog to the left?

[northernlights]

22. NOAA maps moved it a little further west

between last night and this morning.

[Baclava]

27. it's gonna be a close shave, but the eyewall just might stay offshore

[northernlights]

33. the hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the eye

so even with the eye offshore, the coast could get creamed.

[Baclava]

34. no doubt - - but a Cat 4 dead-on hit will scour Hatteras to a blank slab

I dunno - the computer models are counting on that trough to pick it up and move it. Timing is everything here.

I've lived through so many canes, I've learned not to trust the "experts" so much - they are trying to wish this one away, I think.
Of course - if the eye stays over open water it could be worse for the folks farther north.


wobble wobble


I know one thing for sure - Hurricanes at night are the worst.

[northernlights]

41. well he's down to a Cat 3 now with 125 winds

better than 135 and much better than 145.

I guess it's just going to be a rainy, windy Saturday up here in Maine.

[chrisa]

25. Hopefully it goes east.

Storm might come right at us. :( Stay safe out there for those in its path.

[Baclava]

31. the deflector shield is that big front in the midwest it's going to collide with

[eShirl]

26. link to Hurricane Earl coverage live stream

http://www.justin.tv/weatherbroadcast#/w/358285184/3

[Crystal Clarity]

36. Thanks for the link. nt

[Baclava]

38. good link

justintv also carries all those live NFL and College game feeds that you're not supposed to know about



but you didn't hear that from me, eh?



oops

[Uncle Joe]

28. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, WillyT.

[Swamp Rat]

40. Batten down the hatches, my east coast friends.

Fill your bathtubs/containers with water.

Put away all lose objects outside the house and make sure your neighbors do the same.

Prepare your attic for possible shelter in case of storm surge (axe, life jackets, raft, water, flashlights, ropes, radio, batteries, some basic tools).

Don't forget about your pets!!

[ohheckyeah]

42. this site has it as a category 2 at 8:00 p.m.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-earl-2010