Excellent piece at The Mudflats -- Murkowski, Will She or Won't She?

[Blue_In_AK]

This is a very well written and entertaining analysis of what's going on within the Republican Party in Alaska right now and what it means for Scott McAdams. www.scottmcadams.org Up here in politics, anything can and has happened. The ongoing Murkowski/Palin grudge match is reaching epic proportions and will undoubtedly carve out a prominent place in Alaska's political history. :evilgrin: http://www.themudflats.net/2010/09/07/murkowski-will-she-or-wont-she/

After Republican/Tea Party candidate Joe Miller’s stunning defeat of Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska Senate primary, things have been all a-kilter.

Everyone on the political spectrum from far left to moderate right has been in a panic. The far right turned out in force for the primary, in part because of a ballot initiative about parental notification for abortion, in part because of a half million dollar Miller media blitz, and in part because of the leftover Palin supporters who were still in the mood for a little roguishness. And now we have Joe Miller, who wants to phase out Medicare and Social Security, who thinks that abortion should be illegal even in cases of rape and incest, who thinks that unemployment is unconstitutional, and who thinks that the federal government should quit giving Alaska all that damned money. Federal dollars, like oil, make up one third of Alaska’s economy, but Mr. Miller, with his eyes on the Tea Party prize, doesn’t seem particularly concerned.

Remember that until recently, Lisa Murkowski had an approval rating of more than 70%. She, not Palin (whose approval ratings in Alaska have sagged below 50%), was Alaska’s golden girl. And now she wanders in the political desert, and her supporters mourn.

So, what’s a moderate to do? The answer was becoming clearer – Scott McAdams, the Democratic candidate. With a pro-Alaskan agenda, and a level-headed soft-spoken bipartisan approach, he has been winning the hearts, votes, and donations of the newly converted. And it seemed likely, that there would be a very clear choice come November.

But hard-core Murkowski loyalists have found it difficult to swallow the fact that Joe Miller (who is basically Palin from Kansas with a beard and a law school degree) is going to wrest power from the establishment candidate, and topple the Murkowski dynasty. So, they’ve been scrambling for a way to keep their favored candidate in the race.

<snip>

What Does This Mean?

So, what would a three-way race between a Republican turned Libertarian, a Republican turned Teapartier, and a Democrat look like?

It certainly adds a few complexities to the political landscape. There will be moderate Republicans who will suddenly find themselves voting Libertarian. There will be Democrats who decide to vote for Murkowski because they’re terrified of Miller. There will be Democrats and moderate Republicans who vote for McAdams thinking that there will be a Republican vote split. There will be Tea Party voters coming out of the woodwork. There will be Murkowski supporters who will just vote Republican because they always do. There will be Murkowski supporters who will be disgusted and vote for McAdams.

But one thing is for sure, it will be a Miller-Murkowski bloodbath, and Scott McAdams will be able to take the high road the whole way to November. If Murkowski jumps back in, she’ll have to get down in the muck with Miller, because playing nice didn’t work out too well for her the last time. Miller will continue to attack her because it worked. And in the meantime, Democrats can watch the knife fight, and woo reasonable people to the reasonable candidate, while Scott McAdams takes the high road the whole way to November.

Regardless of who ends up in the race, it will be up to McAdams to define his candidacy, up his name recognition, and tell people who he is. He’s got about six weeks to do it.

http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/24825

[babylonsister]

1. The excitement from Alaska Never Ends!

:rofl:

What's the feeling up there about McAdams in your opinion? Does he have a shot in hell?

[Blue_In_AK]

2. I believe he has an excellent chance.

I think I personally would prefer if Lisa stays out of this, because she does have a lot of support, but with the confusion of the parties, it might work to our favor, splitting the Republican vote. Like I said, anything can happen. Miller is a freak show, and I really don't believe he'll earn the support of most normal Alaskans. We've had an influx of fundies up here over the past 20-30 years with the oil boom, and they've just kind of ruined the comraderie we all used to share.

As I've said here several times before, Alaska was founded as a Democratic state, with Democratic representatives in Dc. We have a very liberal (some would say "socialist")and privacy-oriented constitution, and a lot of the bedrock "Alaskan" values have carried over from the early days of statehood (since it wasn't that long ago). Since the pipeline, we've been electing Republicans nationally, but several Democrats have held state and local offices. With the old Republican guard fading or passing away, and with the emergence of the clearly crazy Tea Party faction to take its place, the less well known but viable local Democrats, such as Scott McAdams, can start rising to the top as reasonable alternatives.

Scott is doing well at ActBlue. The greatest campaign expense here is travel since the state is so large and so many people live off the road system. Advertising is cheap though since there aren't that many people to reach.

[babylonsister]

6. Thanks, Blue, for your rundown.

I do remember how some folks liked/loved Palin before she went batshit crazy, too.

So I guess the guy who said this could be wrong? I so hope so.

All I see is McAdams losing to Miller by 5-10 points

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=434148&mesg_id=434162

[Blue_In_AK]

8. That poll was taken right after Lisa conceded

so doesn't mean anything. Joe Miller had already spent $600,000 of Tea Party money to defeat Lisa, so he was all over the airwaves statewide so had name recognition; McAdams hadn't even started campaigning yet. Miller's approval rating here since the election has been under 50%. That doesn't look so good for him.

[babylonsister]

9. Love it-thanks so much for that injection of optimism! nt

[Arctic Dave]

3. The longer the repugs act like fools the better McAdams looks.

I don't see them not acting like fools anytime soon.

[Blue_In_AK]

4. Hey, Dave!

It was great seeing you and Arctic Jody at the picnic. I really hope she wins her campaign. :thumbsup:

[Arctic Dave]

10. I had a great time there.

Are you going to post any pictures you took?

;)

[Blue_In_AK]

11. I might.

It might be kind of an uplifting sort of thing. DU needs that every once in a while.

[Octafish]

5. Taking the high road leads to the best of places.

Thanks for the heads-up, Blue_In_AK. You and Mr. McAdams are going places.

[babylonsister]

7. Octafish, I like that line. Actually, I love it.

"Taking the high road leads to the best of places."

Thanks.

[roguevalley]

12. I agree with you Blue. My sister-in-law is religious and conservative

but loathes miller. "HE LIES!" Could be tons of fun if Princess Lisa splits the vote. She won't stop trying. No one puts a murkowski in the corner. LOL!