Craemer: Take a deep breath! Why the Democrats WILL NOT be Routed in November!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

I think it's bullshit, too. And for Democrats who fall for it time and time again, shame on you. You're doing the job for the Republicans and the Corporate Media. Read on...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/time-for-the-pundits-to-t_b_708721.html

Robert Creamer
September 8, 2010 09:12

Time for the Pundits to Take a Deep Breath -- Why Democrats Will Not Be Routed In November

Two years ago today, just two months before the 2008 Election, John McCain led Barack Obama for president in the compilation of national polls assembled by Pollster.com. The Democratic polling project at Democracy Corps had McCain up by two points. As everyone knows, on Election Day Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%. A lot can change in 56 days.

Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath. Despite all of their dire predictions of Democratic demise, the Republicans have not yet seized control of either chamber and I, for one, predict that they won't any time soon.

Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Midterms. But the odds are good that they will emerge from the elections with working majorities in both houses.

No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into which it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean task. It is, of course, a task that has been made much more difficult by the virtually unified opposition of Republicans to Democratic initiatives to energize the economy. Two years of economic pain have made voters unhappy.

<snip>

However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic losses.

1). The voters do not view Republicans as the answer to America's problems. And in fact, a late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that they actually have a less favorable view of Republicans than Democrats.

2).The Republicans' major institutional allies are viewed with even more approbation than the Party itself. The economy has made voters sour on elites of all sorts. They are furious with Wall Street (10% positive to 53% negative), Corporate America (12% positive to 42% negative), and the Health Insurance Industry (12% positive to 56% negative).

3). There is not a large-scale inclination among voters to reject progressive-Democratic values and adopt conservative-Republican values in their place. When the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked if Government should do more, or whether it is doing too many things, voters divided evenly 47% to 47%. When presented a core Democratic and core Republican message, the same number of voters (25% ) found the Democratic message very convincing as those who found the Republican message very convincing.

4). Elections are not simply referenda on the state of the country or the economy. They are choices between two candidates. In a generic context, voters can be angry and dismissive about a current officeholder if they are unhappy with the current state of their lives. But if Democrats do their jobs right, each race will be turned into a choice between two living, breathing people. The more that voters focus on the Republican alternative, the less abstract that choice will become -- the more they will become acquainted with the qualities of the alternative. Whereas once they might have been happy to throw the incumbent out, they will become increasingly focused on the fact that he or she will be replaced by someone else who has negatives of his own.

5). The enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats will almost certainly narrow. Many commentators point to the "enthusiasm gap" that indicates that Republican base voters are more likely to turn out than Democrats. That gap will narrow as it becomes increasingly clear to base Democratic constituencies what is at stake in the election. Progressives will become more and more engaged as they understand the consequences of a big business, radical right victory in the fall.

6). Democratic Campaigns will be better organized and in many cases have more resources. Under Michael Steele, the Republican National Committee is a mess. While the Republican Senate and House Committees are better organized, both have been hamstrung by their dependence on the RNC.

While Democrats and progressives have a great deal to do in the next two months; while we should be ever mindful of the tragedy that could befall us if we let down our guard; I believe that Democrats will emerge from the November elections in much better shape than the doomsayers and prognosticators are predicting.

To make certain we win this fall, Democrats have to shake off the doomsaying, and take the offensive. If we act like winners, we'll win November 2nd.

</snip>

You have to read the entire article in order to get the gist:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/time-for-the-pundits-to-t_b_708721.html

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. This is right.

Recommended.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Excellent

Creamer may be right - he may be wrong. But I truly believe the 'Right Wing Wingnut Machine' hit their apex LAST summer. Oh and remember the VA and NJ Gov. elections? How it was a so-called referendum on President Obama? Well - just look at what those 'anti-incumbent' folks got . . . at least in NJ. So I don't think I it's over quite yet.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

3. Spot on. Turnout is key, and Democrats are better organized. nt

[northoftheborder]

4. they do not have a "working" majority in the Senate now....

....because the Repubs are filibustering everything, and there are usually the blue dogs, one or two or more, who vote with the R;s. They have to have 2-3 larger majority to get anything passed. Unless they can change the filibuster rules. I don't see them picking up any more, will be lucky to hold on the number we have.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. The point is that there are some good Democrats out there who need our help.

Boxer, Feingold, Conway, Sestak...

Why are they presumably so far behind? We're not working hard enough.

There will always be Blue Dogs and DLCers, unfortunately, but if we can work harder to get MORE good Democrats the odds are in our favor. But to just sit back and throw our hands up is simply not wise. The alternative is unacceptable.

And yes, they can change the filibuster rules, but can only do so at the beginning of a congressional session. But if Reid loses, it becomes a moot point.

I'm not suggesting that Reid has been good or that we'll have to accept DINO's, but the reality is that that's the environment that we're forced to work in because the alternative is that much worse.

[WI_DEM]

5. the best example is the special election in PA in May--pundits and pollsters all

predicted the GOP would win, but Dems worked hard on turning out the vote and won.

[jobycom]

6. I agree the predictions are premature. It would help if all Repubs chose Sarah Palin

as there running mate, too. That's a big part of what killed McCain.

I agree with what I read of the article. The media is hyping a Republican victory to keep the race close because that's better for their ratings, and also because the media writes the same story every time. Every plane crash follows the same story, every election follows the same format. They follow the formulas even if it means tailoring facts to fit the story. So they are talking about the big mid-term losses.

Their talking about it puts our candidates on the defensive, and convinces the public to look for weaknesses, and both create the impression of a party in trouble. So it becomes self-fulfilling if we aren't careful.

On the other hand, all the reasons people voted Democrat in 08 are still out there. The Republicans still have delusional goals. The Republicans still think giving money to the rich while bankrupting our nation is the solution. The Republicans still don't care about the average person. The Democrats still have the better ideas (even when watered down) and still don't have a legacy of abject failure--the Republicans have that.

So if our candidates don't act scared, don't start running away from their party and ideals, and start taking the lead, we can hold our own. There's a very real chance we'll win a governorship in Texas, even, so who knows? We could make some gains, or at least upset some strongholds.

But our candidates have to stop being afraid of their message. I don't mean someone like Mary Landrieu can suddenly become a flaming progressive in Louisiana, but she has to stand up for what got her into office in the first place. Support for her basic ideals. Repeat the message of how extreme the Republicans are. Don't apologize for Obama or claim she will fight him. Offense, not defense.

Go back to 94, and you'll see the media didn't get the real message. In areas where candidates ran away from Clinton, or refused to back Clinton, or tried to run as Republican-esque Democrats, they got swept. There were a lot of those, so they lost a lot. Candidates who stood up for their party and fought for their ideals tended to win--even progressives like Ted Kennedy who were trailing dramatically in the polls.

The message isn't "Be far left." The message is "Be different than the Republican." For some regions, that's far left. For some, it's around the middle. But for everywhere, it means don't back down. Press forward. That's how you win elections. That's also how you change minds, which sets your party up for more wins later. When we try to win by sounding less liberal, less offensive, we undermine the whole party. When we argue our position instead of surrendering it, we tend to change minds.

Just my observations. Good article. Thanks for posting. :)

[Pab Sungenis]

8. There are other factors.

In 1994, a lot of people still remembered Reagan, and he was still the face of the Republican Party. 16 years on, fewer voters have good memories of the Gipper, and he's been supplanted as the face of the GOP by Bush Jr.

In 1994, the Democrats had controlled the House for 40 years and the Senate for 36 of those 40. People didn't have firm memories of how the Republicans ran the legislative branch. This time they do. They can't see the Republicans as a viable alternative.

In 1994 a major scandal had broken out in the House, with a lot of members caught kiting checks on the House bank. The Republicans made a unified case that they would root out corruption. Today, they are behind the corruption.

In 1994, the Republicans had a recognizable leader. They don't this time.

In 1994, the Republicans had a palatable message with which to nationalize the election. They don't this time.

In 1994, health care reform, which Clinton had staked most of his campaign on, had gone down to defeat. Obama hasn't had such a major defeat in Congress to weaken him.

This week in 1994, the President had a 39% approval rating. This week, Obama's average approval rating is 46%.

This will be no 1994.

[Bitwit1234]

9. I have one thing to say. And this is IT

there is absolutely no way in hell that the republicans will retain every single one of their seats and not loose some. NO way no way. After the pee poor job they have done, after they way they are obstructing everything, after the way the voted against extending unemployment checks, AND THE SENIORS DANDER IS UP BECAUSE THEY VOTED AGAINST GIVING US A MEASLY 250 DOLLARS WHILE THEY TOOK THOUSANDS IN A SALARY INCREASE.

[Dawson Leery]

11. There are five seats that will

switch from Republican to Democrat. Therefore, the GOP needs 44 seats at minimum to retake the house, not 39.

[gophates]

13. They're going to lose seats, not gain.

The Gallup survey is a tie and the polls are all over the place. I even think we'll pick up the Senate seat in Florida. It's going to be a good year.

[Dawson Leery]

14. I appreciate your optimism.

Though, I prefer to be realistic as to what we can expect.
A strong GOTV will put the teaklan in it's place. Bringing out the base is extremely important in off year elections.

[twenty20]

10. Nonpartison...but not dumb enough to vote (R) this coming election!

The Dems must fire-up their complacent base and get out the vote...our future depends on it. The Republicans, though way out in right field, are already engaged.

[mopinko]

12. i love bob. if he said it, i believe it.

[Liberal_in_LA]

15. polls say that there is no ground swell against Obama, like there was for Bush 2 years ago

[southernyankeebelle]

16. As much as I get mad at my conservative democrat I will hold my nose and vote for him. I

just can't see teabaggers winning and trying to take away programs that our prior generations fought for us all.

[sybylla]

17. Everyone forgets the M$M pulled this bullshit in 2008 for months leading up to Obama's landslide

They're just trying to find something to bitch about and fearmonger with on the nightly news. This is easy to make up and propagate without much evidence at all except a trumped up poll.