Ok, less paranoid after looking at the county breakdown for Castle vs. O'Donnell

[LynneSin]

Delaware has it's own personal 'mason-dixon' line - you go south of the canal and you're in deliverance country. Castle lost because he could not carry the lower 2 counties and there aren't enough republicans in New Castle county to save him.

http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/stwoff_kwns.shtml

UNITED STATES SENATOR Wilm. Rural NC
CASTLE MICHAEL N.
Wilmington: 1,350
Rural NC County: 15,541
Kent: 3,518
Sussex: 3,518
Total: 27,021


O'DONNELL CHRISTINE
Wilmington: 444
Rural NC County: 11,925
Kent: 6,151
Sussex: 12,041
Total: 30,561


Now there wasn't much going on with the democrats but a race for Treasurer and Sheriff. Look at these results from 2008. Mind you we won't get that kind of turn-out in 2008 but it shows the breakdown of the county

UNITED STATES SENATOR
BIDEN JR JOSEPH R.
Wilmington: 25,920
Rural NC County: 151,150 (177070 from New Castle County)
Kent: 37,074
Sussexx: 43,395
Total: 257,539


O'DONNELL CHRISTINE
Wilmington: 3,367
Rural NC County: 66,124 (69491 from New Castle County)
Kent: 27,981
Sussexx: 43,123
Totals: 140,595

So think about it - 398033 people voted in the 2008 election in Delaware and 220641 came from New Castle county or 55.4% of the votes. Knowing that Biden received 71.8% of the New Castle County Vote means that O'Donnell is screwed. She's only got 177392 left in the lower 2 counties combined and not much wriggle room especially since Kent County is split between Dems and Republicans.

I don't expect to get a voter turn out of 398k people in 2010 but I will work my ass off to get close to it. But lets just say that we get normal turn out from Kent/Sussex county and only 50% of the vote turns out in New Castle County AND that 50% only goes about 60% for Coons.

Your results is 115232 votes for O'Donnell and 146661 for Coons - Coons wins 56% to 44%

Office Total 29,287 217,274 65,055 86,518 398,134

[BrklynLiberal]

1. I hope you are prescient...