Murkowski's Write-In Campaign - What Are Her Chances? - The Mudflats

[Blue_In_AK]

A well thought-out analysis of what Lisa's write-in campaign means for our November election. Get our your popcorn. :popcorn:


http://www.themudflats.net/2010/09/17/murkowskis-write-in-campaign-what-are-her-chances/

The supporters have been rallied, the big announcement has been made and Senator Lisa Murkowski is off and running on her whirlwind write-in campaign!

So what are her actual chances of winning?

1) There is the problem of her name.

Lisa Murkowski…doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue or the pen. However, it looks like a write-in won’t be as stringent as was once thought. Just “Lisa” would not be enough according to outgoing Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell. However, voters would not need to spell Murkowski’s name correctly if “intent could be ascertained” according to Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai…even “Lisa M” is a possibility. However, there are rumblings of problems (see item 4).

2) There is the problem of the “oval.”

Alaska uses the cards and card-reading machines. So, even though a voter may have written Lisa Murkowski’s name perfectly, it doesn’t count if they don’t color-in the oval next to it for the machine to read. This particular issue is of concern to those who have questions about machine tampering — the only way to catch a ballot that does have the dot colored in but was somehow unread by the machine is in a recount.

<snip>

So, what are Senator Murkowski’s chances? If you judge by the enthusiasm of her supporters, she has a shot. If you judge by the practicalities of a write-in campaign in general, her chances aren’t good. If you judge based on the write-in campaigns in Alaska’s history, she has no chance at all.

So the question you have to ask yourself…do you believe in unicorns?

Stay tuned and break out your popcorn…

[Skink]

1. I wrote in Hooward Dean.

YEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!

[life_long_dem]

2. “Lisa M” is a possibility? WTF. There is only one Lisa M. in the

whole state? How is that proving intent?

[Blue_In_AK]

3. I predict that we won't know who our senator is

until well into next year ... unless, of course, Scott McAdams gets a clear victory.

[stevedeshazer]

4. Will this move by LMurk split the vote sufficiently to give McAdams a shot?

Curious as to your perspective on this.

[Blue_In_AK]

6. It's anybody's guess, really.

My fear is that she will split the "reasonable" vote that otherwise would have gone to McAdams. I think Scott may have had more of a chance in a head to head against Miller because the differences were so clear-cut, but Lisa kind of muddies the water.

One thing is for sure -- it will be a bloodbath on the Republican side, and the Alaska Republican Party will never be the same, no matter who wins. Our Republicans were pretty predictable and unified for a long, long time -- Ted Stevens/Don Young types -- but the Palinistas have staged a coup, and it's not going over so well with the old line party. Murkowski issued a statement saying the party had been "hijacked." :rofl:

I'm hoping that maybe Murkowski and Miller will both look so bad during the remainder of the campaign with all the mud-slinging that Scott will come out looking like the grown-up. It'll be interesting.

Over 60% of registered voters here are not affiliated with either major party, so anything could happen.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

5. Love Republican infighting.