Last night they said 10% chance; this morning it was 30% chance

[malaise]

Nicole is taking shape - those ahead prepare for serious rain at minimum


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Lochloosa]

1. It's supposed to drift N the next few days. Maybe it will be north of you by then.

I'll be keeping an eye on it.

[malaise]

2. It's south west of us right now

we still have rain but nothing else.

[Lochloosa]

3. Up to 40% now.

[malaise]

4. Yep all eyes are on this now

If all that rain is moving North, The GOM will soon look ominous - all of Florida and half of Cuba better watch this one

add

[malaise]

5. Holy shite

and now moving East!!! WTF???

[malaise]

6. Up to 80% now

Jamaica, Gitmo and Haiti will be the victims. We cannot take another drop of water. It's been raining since Saturday.

[Lochloosa]

7. And some models have it coming ashore 100 miles SOUTH of me as a hurricane

Wednesday night. That's not what I wanted to see.

[peekaloo]

8. Wednesday? Crap I better pay more attention!

Over the weekend it was something to keep an eye on for "possibly" next weekend.

:scared: it's been TOO quiet this year.

p.s. I'm in Central Fl.

[Lochloosa]

9. I heard that from our local news this morning. It will have to really move to make it here by then.

[malaise]

10. This is serious business

THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA TODAY.
THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



I'm in my office but word is they will shut us down by lunchtime.
We can't take the infrastructural damage at this time and the roads are a mess in several areas.
I have a feeling that Nicole will sit over Jamaican while making up her mind whether to head for the Bahamas, Florida, the Carolinas or all three.


I suspect this will be Tropical Storm Nicole before lunchtime.

Note - all those models are wrong - The system has already reached South Western Jamaica.

[malaise]

11. Pay attention

and thanks for that hung jury yesterday. :D

[peekaloo]

12. *snort*

and an ironic snort at that! :D

Stay safe. :hi:

[malaise]

13. Agreed

Back at you - stay safe :grouphug:

[malaise]

25. Well most of the rain is still over Jamaica

We're getting worried now - the island has been devastated - bridges and roads have collapsed and trees and power lines are down in several parishes - homes have fallen into gullies and rivers and there was a tornado in Westmoreland (Sav). So far about 15 people are dead including a family of seven - their two story home collapsed and went down the gully in a middle class neighbourhood.
Rain is still pelting and all schools and colleges are closed.
Word is this will stay with us until Friday.

[Odin2005]

14. This is a HUGE monsoonal low, it will take time for it to organize.

[malaise]

15. Now moving NNE

Jamaica, Cuba and Florida get ready

[malaise]

16. You're so right

96L is not the typical sort of disturbance one sees in the Atlantic, since it is much larger than normal. What has happened is that the atmospheric flow pattern of the Eastern Pacific has shifted eastwards into the Western Caribbean, bringing in the Eastern Pacific ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone, a region of converging surface winds that creates a band of strong thunderstorms). 96L resembles the "monsoon depressions" common in India's Bay of Bengal or the Western Pacific. A monsoon depression is similar to a regular tropical depression in the winds that it generates--about 30 - 35 mph near the outer edges (and usually stronger on the eastern side of the circulation.) Monsoon depressions have large, calm centers, and can evolve into a regular tropical storms, if given enough time over water to develop a tight, closed circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 96L this afternoon near 2pm EDT to see if it has become a tropical depression.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

First time in my life I've seen the entire Caribbean Sea covered by a system

[TBF]

17. Is this hurricane Matthew? Stay safe. nt

[malaise]

18. Nope - Tropical Depression 16

Florida, the Bahamas and Carolinas get ready

[Cetacea]

19. Sorry about the dupe thread.

I did look as you always post related threads but missed this one.

[malaise]

20. Nothing wrong with Dupes on matters 'watch the weather'

:hi:

[Cetacea]

21. True..thanks. Have you even been to storm pulse?

http://www.stormpulse.com/

I like the graphics and overall layout.

[malaise]

22. Yep I love Storm Pulse

but I'm addicted to Weather Underground

[Odin2005]

23. It looks like the East coast cold front is gonna grab this thing.

Tropical Tidbits says that the trough digging in to the Gulf is trying to merge with with monsoonal ridge that extends from TD16 to the remnants of Mathew and turn it into a frontal boundary. This is really wonky. The East Coast is gonna be getting a LOT of rain.

[malaise]

24. Just watched Max Mayfield on Florida ABC

This system has an unbelievable amount of rain - we have flooding in several parishes.

What makes it so weird is that a system came in from the Pacific and merged with Matthew and another system from the Eastern Caribbean - what a fugging mess.