The DIRTY Little Secret About LIKELY VOTERS

[Beetwasher]

Most "Likely Voter" screens do not include first time voters. There were SHITLOADS of them last election voting for Dems and Obama. Even if these people tell a poster they ARE likely to vote, if last election was their first time, they are usually NOT included. Now, there will be a lot of attrition in this group, of course, but no one really knows how much. Just remember that when you see numbers for "likely voters".

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Not dirty.

Not little.

Not secret.

Not likely.

[Beetwasher]

3. You Think Most People Know This Information?

What's "Not Likely"?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. Answer #1: No.

Answer #2: "Pollster" grift.



:tinfoilhat:

[Beetwasher]

6. Pollster Grift? Explain

:shrug:

[Scuba]

2. Ignore the polls. Most are designed...

...to shape opinion, not measure it.

There's only one poll that matters. Please vote on Nov 2nd.

[saracat]

4. The real "dirty little secret" is neither this election or any subsequent are going

to be decided by anyone likely to be "polled" . Most legit pollsters admit that.And this election and future elections are going to be decided by the largest group of voters in the nation, the Independents. And the Indies owe their loyalty to NO party.And despite Democratic claims to the contrary, anyone who has been working with the "persuadable voter universe" can tell you, they are just as likely to be right leaning as left. Not long ago, it was a forgone conclusion the Indies leaned left. No so anymore. It is now a crap shoot. And both the GOP and the Dems have been marginalized.

[Beetwasher]

8. First TimeVoters Were HUGE In The Last Election

And voted overwhelmingly for Dems.

[tblue37]

19. Yes, and they are the ones who are most upset about the way the Dems are running things.

Sure, we lefties are upset, too, but we are still likely to vote against Republcians, even if we are not actually voting for Dems. But the indies will either stay home or vote Republican, because they are not as convinced as we are that the Republcians are the evil disaster for the country that they really are. They owe no loyalty at all to the Dems. Their mantra is "What have they done for me lately," and they expect immediate gratification. They will turn on a dime, and even if they voted Dem in the last election, they are just as likely to vote Republican in this one--probably even more so.

[Beetwasher]

23. No They're Not, Source That Claim, It's Nonsense

n/t

[saracat]

27. Well, my direct experience with canvassing and manning the phones indicates the Indies are not as

likely as they were to vote at all OR vote Dem. Yesterday evening I had the majority of Indies that I was able to speak with responding that they weren't planning to vote. I also encountered quite a few Dems who had changed their registration while canvassing and they also said they wouldn't vote Dem. And most of the Indies I have been calling were NOT first time voters.Most were either former Dems or Repugs. The good news is in many cases we still do maintain a slight lead among those Indies who still intend to vote but we by no means have the support we did previously.And this is known by our internal polling.
We can pull this election out of the bag but it is going to be very tough and is going to take a lot of work and dedication.But we must prevail. There is no other choice.

[Beetwasher]

32. IOW, You Can't Source It All You Have Is Your Anectdotes. Got It.

[DevonRex]

28. That's total bullshit. You might wish it were true, though. nt

[tblue37]

30. Excuse me? Did you just call me a troll or a Republican plant?

It sure as hell sounds like it!

[muffin1]

34. It's his MO.

Yesterday he accused me of lying about having been an Obama volunteer in 2008. They just can't fathom that a whole shitload of us who loved and supported him whole-heartedly are now upset about the way he is governing.

Hell, I will never forget the moment that I VOTED for him. I stood in the booth for about five minutes before casting my vote with tears running down my face. I wanted that moment to last - not only was it historic, I was REALLY HAPPY to vote for him. For the first time, I wasn't merely voting against someone. And when he actually WON that night...let's just say I was a hot mess.

Sorry, guess I just needed to vent a little. It pisses me off to no end to be called a PUMA, or a racist, or whatever else we'll be called tomorrow.

[tblue37]

35. Well, I alerted on that post of his. I don't know whether anyone will even

say anything to him about such crap, but I think they definitely should.

[deaniac21]

7. Yeah, we are going to kill the repukes....

[Beetwasher]

9. Who Said That? Did I?

[deaniac21]

14. No, I did.

[Beetwasher]

15. And What's Your Point? You Believe That?

If you don't then I assume you're attempting being sarcastic, implying I said that or meant that. Which I didn't, so it's dishonest.

[deaniac21]

16. You are quite the over thinker.

[Beetwasher]

22. Why Don't You Just Come Out And Say What You Mean? Too Afraid I've Got You Pegged?

Unless you honestly believe we're going to "kill the repubs", in which case, you're pretty naive.

[deaniac21]

31. I just enjoy the ease with which your buttons get pushed!

[Beetwasher]

33. IOW, You'd Rather Speak Cryptically Than Be Honest About Your Opinions

Got it! Some people might say that's pretty cowardly.

[deaniac21]

36. Can't resist, can ya?

[Beetwasher]

38. Can't Explain Yourself, Can Ya?

Thanks for the kick!

[OHdem10]

10. Likely voters are registered voters who actually have a history of

voting in every election. Heavily Republican. Pew has
explained that Likely Voters are more likely to be Republican
because they are better off and see themselves as having a
real stake in the outcome of election.

More Democrats are Registered but cannot be depended on
to come out to vote.

[Beetwasher]

11. Actually Each Outfit Has It's Own Screen And There Are Varying Definitions

But for the most part what you say is true and supports what I said: first time voters are NOT included. Most Likely voter screens contain voters who have shown a repeated pattern of regular voting. New voters were a HUGE factor in '08 and could be again, depending on the attrition rate, which no one can accurately determine. It's a wild card.

[Scurrilous]

12. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Crystal Clarity]

13. That's probably true. And another thing...

I'd like to know where polling companies get their lists of people to call... I find it hard to believe that these are just random cold calls.

The reason I question this is the fact that I am regularly called by at least 2+ polling companies p/election cycle and this has been going on for about 10 years now. Prior to that however, I can't remember ever having been polled despite never having missed voting in an election from the age of 18 on. I'm 44 now, so for basically my first 16 years of voting, I was persona non grata as far as opinion is concerned, and then suddenly, poof... I get called every election cycle, at least twice if not more.

I'm not complaining... just sort of wondering why out loud. Coincidence? Maybe they didn't do as much polling a decade ago? :shrug:

Very odd imho. If someone more in-the-know about this sort of thing has an explanation or even a theory as to how polling companies come up w/their lists, I'd love to hear it.

[flyarm]

17. since 2003 I have been polled alot..but prior to that I moved alot ..and lived in

9 different states.

Now I live in 2 states, and I get polled at both homes! Although only one is my residence.

In fact I got a call at 9 am this past Saturday. The call woke me..and they got an ear full!

[gkhouston]

18. I didn't get called for polls before we owned a home. n/t

[JustAnotherGen]

37. I wonder too

I've never been called in my 19 years of being eligible to vote AND having voted in every single election. Not just national - I even vote on the school board.

[mopinko]

20. ofa is targeting those voters hard.

that is who they are putting on the canvas lists. those folks are getting a knock on the door. they will come out to vote. and if anyone is worried about attrition in that group, find your local ofa and go talk to them. door to door is THE most effective election tactic. and it is a lot of fun.

[Radical Activist]

21. Polls are simply not newsworthy.

They shouldn't get more coverage than a brief mention in an article about something meaningful.

[old mark]

24. The only meaningful polls are exit polls...the rest is nonsense...nt

[Generic Brad]

25. And don't they only poll people who own landlines too?

That alone will skew likely voter models far to the right.

[janet118]

26. Exact;y . . . cell phones are usually not on call lists.

Also, there's caller ID. Everyone I know screens out any call that's not a real person who they actually know. Phone polling (and phone banking) is becoming archaic and less effective. The grassroots has to invent new, creative ways to reach out to voters or the candidate with the most media buys (i.e., money) will win.

That said, the polls do help create a self-fulfilling prophesy. The latest poll results lead the news and provide fodder for the gasbags. It's the corporate media's way of creating a perpetual horse race - more viewers, more pseudo-controversy for the talk shows, and more ad money.

[bemildred]

29. All "likely voter" schemes assume the voting future will be similar to the voting past.

Hence, it is an inherently conservative selection criteria.

Yet observation shows that this is false, and in fact change is accelerating all the time.