Do Generic Polls Show GOP Lead Narrowing?

[laughingliberal]

WASHINGTON - Readers of The Washington Post woke this morning to the headline "GOP HOLDS EDGE AT FINISH" splashed across its front page. An above-the-fold graphic, under the heading "Republicans keep a slight advantage," illustrated results from the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showing likely voters favoring the Republican candidate in their Congressional district over the Democrat by a four point margin (49% to 45%).

No one should quarrel with the lead of the Post story (which has a different online headline): Based on all available evidence, Republicans do "appear poised to capture control of the House and are likely to make substantial gains in the Senate," a point also stressed in the ABC News analysis of the same poll. What Post readers may miss, however, is the subtext of two important words in the headlines: "edge" and "slight." <snip>

<snip> But that said, a four-point Republican margin would suggest the Republicans winning control of the House but by narrower margins than the 50+ seat gains widely predicted in recent days. The statistical model of Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz, presented at a recent conference of political scientists, shows that the difference between a tie on the generic congressional ballot and a ten-point Republican lead translates into a potential spread of Republican gains of between 40 and 57 seats (ignoring the margin of error for the model). If Republicans lead by 5 point in the generic ballot, the Abramowitz model predicts a 49-seat Republican gain. They need to pick up a net 39 seats to win majority control.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/31/do-generic-polls-show-gop_n_776602.html

Put this together with Steele downplaying the notion of huge gains yesterday and I'm thinking I'd love to see the internal polling, right now.