Why it looks as if republicans are way out ahead...

[WCGreen]

Most people with Land Lines are 50+ and lean more toward the GOP.

Most people that have cell phones and no Land Lines are under 50 and are more independent leaning toward democrats.

Now there are about 25% of those people who have only cells. These people are not likely to be polled in any of the models that are being touted this past week. Given the assumed demographics, I would say that 90% of gop voters have only landlines and about 75% of those under 50 have land lines.

Of course I could very well be wrong, because I don't know the makeup of the up for grab house seats, but I think there are going to be some disappointed republicans come tuesday night.

Just think about it. I bet most of the people who were at or watched Saturdays festivities probably leans progressive.

Come 2012, you can bet that there will be a way for people to call Cell Phones because of the bad polling data from tomorrows election.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. You're probably right...

I hope so, anyway!

Of course, there are exceptions...We have two land lines, rarely use our cell phones, and are very liberal...

But we're probably the exception that proves the rule...

Recommended.

:hi:

[cdsilv]

3. I have a land line that I only use for outgoing calls (conference calls, business calls working from

home). Incoming calls to my cell are the only ones that get answered.

[WCGreen]

5. There are a lot of households like that...

When we had a land line, we would get called about three or four times a decade for political polls. Since we got rid of the land line in 2006, not one call...

[kick-ass-bob]

2. Honest - I'm not trying to deflate your argument...

but are there some studies that support this hypothesis? I'm not singling you out, I just want to see some actual stats on this.

[WCGreen]

4. Here is the study that show 25% of people don't have landlines..

http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/the_slow_death_of_the_landline_quarter_of_us_households_wireless_only.php

Now as far as the the other stuff goes, older folks tend to hold onto their landlines because they have trouble hearing Cell Phones and the first alert signal and 911 calls are much better suited to land lines.

I did polling in 2002 and 2004. I saw that more and more registered voters under 50 were not being contacted because of the land line being shut down in lue of Cell phones.

Granted, that was 6 years ago and it wasn't that large a problem, but six years in the technology is a life time.

The study in interesting to be sure.

[HereSince1628]

6. Well, that isn't entirely true...but just to set the record straight

According to the Pew Internet & American Life study, "a greater portion of enthusiastic tech users find it more difficult to do without their computer, cell phone and internet than their television and land line telephone". Thirty one percent of the population are considered heavy technology users.

Wired baby boomers: comprise 6% of the TOTAL population and their average age is 52. This group spends ___more money online than any other group!!!!!!____. They all have internet access and -----82%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! have cell phones. They actively gather information online and use the internet for transactions.

Low-Tech Older Baby Boomers: make up 21% of the TOTAL population and their average age is 54. Internet use is ----51%!!!!!!!!(OMG a majority!!!)---- while more of them (60%!!!!!!!! OH CHRIST!!! another majority!!!!) have cell phones.

My point is that a majority of baby boomers (who are now between 64 and 47 years old have CELL PHONES.

The ELDERLY (for whippersnappers this is folks over 32, but really a fair characterization is folks who are 66+ and aren't active) don't use cellphones as much, about 8% have cell phones. Since this group spends most of their time at a residence, and aren't connected to their friends at the ear and because they are adamantly independent, and can make grocery decisions without cellular assistance, they don't rely on mobile phone services.

[HereSince1628]

7. I thought it important enough to say but NOT 3x worth!!!!!

[HereSince1628]

8. Triple dribble...maybe I AM elderly!

[DevonRex]

9. I made a few thousand calls and 75% of those who answered were

55 and over. Of the remaining percentage, often it was kids answering their parents' land line. I've found that parents of kids below 12 still have land lines. And when they find themselves on the phone (after their kids answer it) with somebody who wants to talk politics, they frequently just say "no thank you" and hang up.

[renate]

22. wow, a few thousand? THANK YOU

You are awesome! Interesting inside info, too!

[glitch]

10. Agreed, although I think more people than the young have only cell phones.

Times are hard, when you have to cut your budget most people choose to cut the land line, simply because of the convenience of cell phones. IMO.
I bet they do study this election's polling and find out their underrepresented cellphones (and their miscalculated "likely voters") played a big part in their failed results.

[cascadiance]

11. I often wonder if many Dems are more likely to not be at home when working multiple jobs...

If more Dems are working multiple jobs and less likely to be at home when a pollster calls, doesn't that favor seniors or others who respond to these polls? Last week I happened to be at my friend's house during the day while they were out at work and I answered a poll call in good progressive fashion, but it got me to thinking that if I weren't there one less progressive voice would have been counted then.

[shireen]

12. and there are many people, like me, who are not answering the phone!

i hate talking on the phone, even to family and friends. In the past couple of week, I've not answered the phone, just let it go to the machine. Most of the time, no message is left (except that President Obama left me a voicemail yesterday -- nice of him to call. ;)

A few months ago, I did agree to take a poll and was horrified by the leading questions and negative hypothetical questions about some of the candidates. It was a very bizarre experience. That's the last time I'm participating in a poll.

[WCGreen]

13. Yep, screening calls....

[mrs_p]

14. I never answer unless I know who it is

i'm a cell phone user, under 50, no landline

[Codeine]

16. I hate talking on the phone.

Thank goodness for texting, or I'd never communicate with anyone.

[southmost]

15. in my 20 years of voting,

I've never participated in a poll, neither siblings' households have been polled. We all have land lines, but use the cell phone primarily. I imagine most younger adults are in the same situation.

[TheKentuckian]

17. When I had a landline that was listed I got polled every cycle and maybe once for governor

Since I went cell phone only in late 04, not a peep.

[madokie]

18. My fun time today was

we have two women running for our governorship, one a very good fine Democrat, Jeri Askins and the other, Mary Fallin a pur-d-o-puke republicon. Well the puke one called me this morning asking for my vote and I think it was her on the other end as she introduced herself and it didn't sound like a recorded message so I just hung up. I know it got her panties all wadded up bigger'rn dallas. I loved it. My first thought was to just gently lay the phone down and let her go on and waste time but my better sense told me that I'd have a bigger impact if I'd just hang the damn phone up on her so I did. :-)

[GreenStormCloud]

19. The polling companies aren't stupid. I am sure they take that into account.

If a polling company gets a reputation for inaccuracy, nobody will hire them to take polls. So their experts are able to factor in the difference between cell phones and land lines.

[gulliver]

20. It's weird how the polling vs. results work out for 04, 06, and 08

2004
Dems -3 on polling report vs. Repubs. Seats won by Dems 204.

2006
Dems +13 on polling report vs. Repubs. Seats won by Dems 233.

2008
Dems +12 on polling report vs. Repubs. Seats won by Dems 257

2010
Dems -6 on polling report vs. Repubs. Seats won by Dems ?

The question I have is why didn't we lose seats in 2008? The point advantage went down in 2008, but we got more seats.

http://www.pollingreport.com/cong2004.htm
http://www.pollingreport.com/2006a.htm
http://www.pollingreport.com/cong2008.htm
http://www.pollingreport.com/2010.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_2004
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections,_2008

[struggle4progress]

21. We can speculate Wednesday: gotv

[BzaDem]

23. They already weight by age. If their response is too old, they bump up the weight for the young.

Same for other demographics.

There still could be a bias in one direction or the other, but that is not NECESSARILY the case just because they don't poll cell phones.