The Funny Thing About Things Said With Absolute Certainty

[stopbush]

is that they often end up being dead wrong.

"Cowboys Will Host 2011 Super Bowl In Their Brand New Stadium." Many sportswriters picked the Cowboys to win it all this year. They're currently 1-6 and don't have a QB. Their season is effectively over.

After the Yankees beat the Rangers in Game 1 of the ALCS, one of the Yankee Network commentators said that it was all over for the Rangers, because Game 1 exposed all of the weaknesses in their bullpen. Of course, the Yankees had a hard time getting to their bullpen in the subsequent games, which is why the Rangers are in the WS and not the Yankees.

"Dewey Defeats Truman" springs to mind.

Opinions are like assholes - everybody has one.

So, Reuters has already called the election in the House for the Rs. Right. If I didn't know better, I'd think they were telling R voters that they might as well stay home because the thing is in the bag. I'd think they were working for the Ds to suppress the R vote by giving the impression that SO many people were voting R that nothing can stop the landslide.

But elections are won by who shows up at the polls, not by who makes predictions.

The pollsters are going to have egg on their faces Wednesday morning, because they are in pure hysteria mode at this point, trying to beat their media competition to the bigger, badder headline, safe in the knowledge that if it doesn't go that way, they have the "explanation" story ready to go, too.

It's a win-win from their perspective. It just doesn't happen to be true.

[elocs]

1. You mean like the absolute certainty here a couple of years ago

that had people dancing on the GOP grave, acting like the Republican party was done forever? Like that one?

[stopbush]

2. When was that? I do remember the Rovian statements that

a permanent R majority was in the works.

[elocs]

9. After the election 2 years ago and even later there was dancing on the GOP grave here,

how they were finished and washed up. Of course that was before what came later in 2009 and since. I always thought it was stupid to be so confidently strutting like that and that the Republicans could have the last laugh. I don't think either party will ever again have anything resembling a permanent majority.

[gratuitous]

3. You mean prior to the Citizens United decision?

Wow, are you saying that advertising works, and that's why all those Fortune 500 companies spend billions of dollars every year getting their products fixed in the minds of consumers? Who could have foreseen?

[Safetykitten]

12. How true.

[uppityperson]

4. Predictions are like that.

[Winterblues]

5. Their season is effectively over.

Stated as fact...:shrug:

[stopbush]

6. Maybe you don't understand modifiers.

In this case, "effectively" modifies "over."

Effectively over because they would need to win every game in the remaining season to make the playoffs. Is it probably that will happen? No. Is it possible? Anything is possible up to a point. Is it possible when their star QB will be out for the next two months? Is it possible when other teams they still need to play are kicking butt, including kicking Cowboy butt when the Cowboys still had their star QB? No and no.

So, yes, it is a fact that the Cowboys' season is effectively over, though it is not a fact that it is absolutely over. Hence, my use of a modifier.

[ScreamingMeemie]

13. But not in a season where all teams have at least two losses.

The NFC is, by all accounts, effectively wide open. For goodness sakes, even my son's favorite Lions have a shot at it.

Bad year for this comment. I'd agree with you last year. :)

[damntexdem]

7. All things said with dead certainty are wrong.

Because we just don't know things for certain.

[RaleighNCDUer]

8. he said with absolute certainty.

That's right up there with "Only the Sith speak in absolutes."

[tex-wyo-dem]

10. I agree with your post...

The tendancy amoung the electorate is to become complacent if their side is expected to win. Very much like a sports team that is expected to win or is favored to go to the Super Bowl or World Series, but ends up underperforming.

For months now the MSM has been pushing the CW that the repugs are going to win in a landslide. I can see now how many on the right might just stay home thinking "it's in the bag.". Conversely, those on the left, independants and moderate conservatives have been watching as the crazy unfolds on the right and get their ass to the polls scared as hell that we will end up with a congress full of extremists.

[ScreamingMeemie]

11. "They're currently 1-6 and don't have a QB. Their season is effectively over."

Let's look at this from a purely football fan's (Go, Pack, GO) point of view. The Cowboy's have a quarterback. His name is Jon Kitna. He threw for 379 yards in his first start. Yes, there were interceptions, but it was his first start, and many greats (Favre comes to mind) throw with high interception rates. What happens there remains to be seen. You have shot your point right in the foot by starting off with that one.

Check out the parity in the NFL and you'll see that this Super Bowl is still anybody's to dream about.

[begin_within]

14. Well, when you control the voting machines, the odds tilt in your favor.