Josh Marshall of TPM on Nate Silver tweeting again today on the 4 pt cellphone poll difference

[highplainsdem]

This was something Silver brought up weeks ago, about pollsters who omit cellphone users ending up with a 4-point bias against Democrats:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/14/bypassed-cellphones-biased-polls/

Silver brought this up again today on Twitter

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/29392011358

and this was Josh Marshall's reaction at TPM:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/11/a_pretty_big_deal.php

TPM Editors Blog
A Pretty Big Deal
Josh Marshall | November 1, 2010, 1:47PM

Nate Silver just tweeted: "FWIW, there's about a 4 pt difference between generic ballot polls that included cellphones and those which didn't."

That's a huge spread by methodology, though conceivably Rasmussen's 'house effect' may be skewing the difference we can attribute to methodology. Regardless, it's looking more and more like 2010 may be the last year when pollsters were able to write off the cell phone issue.

[HereSince1628]

1. God, I hope cellphone users show up and vote for Feingold!!!!!!!!! n/t

[Aramchek]

2. Nate keeps covering his ass. He knows his predictions are off.

[qazplm]

3. so you think

nate "knows" his predictions are off but instead of trying to fix them he's just "covering" because apparently you think he isn't smart enough to realize fixing them is better than covering or because you think he's a secret tea partier?

[Qutzupalotl]

4. But will smartphone users stop tweeting long enough to vote?

I hope the 4 point difference holds, but I have an image of younger cell users as disengaged from politics. I hope I'm wrong.

On edit: if it does hold, we keep the House.