5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House

[TeaBagsAreForCups]

As is customary from Nate, It is a rather long, reasoned, and highly detailed piece which I suggest be read in its entirety; it will make for a more restful night this evening if you do...

5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House
By NATE SILVER

"While our forecast and a good deal of polling data suggest that the Republicans may win the House of Representatives on Tuesday, perhaps all is not lost for the Democrats. Here’s one possible scenario for how things might not end up as expected.

It was hard to pinpoint exactly when in the night things started to go wrong. But at some point, a trash can was knocked over in John A. Boehner’s office in the Longworth House Office Building. A half-hour later, a hole was punched in the wall at the Republican National Committee’s headquarters.

- SNIP -

A scenario like this one is possible tomorrow — not particularly likely, but possible — just as a 77-seat Republican gain is possible. It’s probably a somewhat greater possibility than people realize. Here are five reasons Democrats could outperform the polls and beat consensus expectations.

1. The cellphone effect.
- SNIP -
2. The “robopoll” effect.
- SNIP -
3. Some likely voter models, particularly Gallup’s, may “crowd out” Democratic voters.
- SNIP -
4. Democrats probably have better turnout operations.
- SNIP -
5. The consensus view of Democratic doom is not on such sound footing as it seems.

- SNIP -

Nor, probably, will it turn out to be the correct one; more likely than not, Republicans will indeed win the House, and will do so by a significant margin. But just as Republicans could beat the consensus, Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do."

___________________________________________
As I suggested, there is literally tons of narrative buried at each of the snipped points. Indeed, his thesis for point 3 relative to Gallup goes on for a page and a half alone - so a full reading is best:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/01/5-reasons-democrats-could-beat-the-polls-and-hold-the-house/?hp


And, yes. Nate Silver. Five Thirty Eight...It will be interesting to see how this article is embraced. Especially considering other threads relative to Nate's exemplary and professional work where he enjoyed little other than derisive criticism and dismissal when he was saying things some did not wish to hear.

[Lifelong Protester]

1. Saw this on the NYTimes

interesting analysis, and thanks for posting.

[TeaBagsAreForCups]

12. NP, I always find Nate's work...

... respectable, competent, and never influenced nor biased with partisan motivations. He's quite good.

[emulatorloo]

2. "Democrats could too, and nobody should be particularly shocked if they do."

I guess that lets the punditry off the hook. They don't have to be shocked.

[highplainsdem]

3. K&R

[obliviously]

4. so what you're saying is we don't know the future

who would have thought, fascinating!

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. Ah now nate goes into the cell phone effect

It is going to be much larger. Been saying this for over two weeks.

[Qutzupalotl]

6. I'll add number 6:

Republicans are starting to whine about voting irregularities. What we call "election fraud" (compromised machines) they insist on calling "voter fraud" to make us feel guilty for voting and to blame the victim.

[BzaDem]

7. I don't think anyone could disagree that this is an outcome that is theoretically possible.

Nate's saying that this is about as likely as Republicans gaining almost 80 House seats. I think that's about accurate. Unlikely, but anything's possible.

[LawnKorn]

8. The Main Stream Media has manufactured the 'Enthusiasm Gap' from whole cloth

There is no 'Enthusiasm Gap', and it is a badly promoted MSM ploy to influence the election.

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. kick and recommend!!

[TicketyBoo]

10. Personally,

I'd rather not get my hopes up just to have them dashed.

I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than overly optimistic.

[chimpymustgo]

11. Oh Nate. CYA on election morn. After howling for months about the Rethug tsunami. Okay fine.