10/31 Charnin Midterms Forecast: LV poll model matches Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, but... (TIA)

[tiptoe]

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/bUctej

'LV poll model matches Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, but...'

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

Nov 1, 2010

The 2010 House and Senate forecast Models are based on a comprehensive analysis of Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) polls. The LV Model predicts a 234 - 201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic Senate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball also predicts a 233 - 202 GOP House and a 49-49 Senate. Electoral-vote.com has a 51-48-1 Democratic Senate and a 217 - 200 GOP House with 18 ties.

But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.

Senate Forecast
(UVA – undecided voter allocation)

Charnin Model
Table 1 – Simulation

18 RV + 19 LV
18 LV + 19 LV

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )

Table 5 – Projection
I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50% GOP

No fraud
3% vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )

II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud
3% Vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )

Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball
Electoral-vote.com

 

Forecast Seats

 

Dem Seat

DEM
52.8
49.9



53.0
49.4


54.1
50.8

49
51

GOP
45.2
48.1



45.0
48.6


43.9
47.2

49
48

Margin
+ 7.6
+ 1.8



+ 8.0
+ 0.8


+ 10.2
+  3.6

  0
+ 3

 

House Generic Forecast
(UVA – undecided voter allocation)

Charnin Model
Table 6 – Projection

19 RV
30 LV

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )
 

Table 7 – Projection
I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50% GOP

No fraud
3% vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )
 

II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud
3% Vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )
 

Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball
Electoral-vote.com

 

Forecast Seats

 

GOP Seat

DEM
214.3
201.4



214.3
201.1


218.9
205.7

202
200

GOP
220.7
233.6



220.7
233.9


216.1
229.3

233
217

Margin
+ 6.4
+ 32.2



+ 6.4
+ 32.8


- 2.8
+ 23.6

+ 31
+ 17

(Dems could take the House in a fair election)



(18 too close to call)

 

Pollsters Are Paid To Predict the Recorded Vote - Not the True Vote

The media/pollster drumbeat of a “horse race” is largely based on the LV polls. The focus on LV polls conditions the public to expect a recorded vote which in fact will surely understate the True Democratic share. The pollsters discount the RV sample, fully expecting that their LV projections will be a close match to a fraudulent recorded vote count — but they never mention the F-word. They know that votes are miscounted in every election. And so their final LV-based poll predictions are usually quite accurate. Pollsters are paid to predict the recorded vote—not the True Vote.

As Election Day approaches, the MSM gradually phases out RV polls for LV polls which lowball the projected Democratic vote share. And so the general public is prepared for the fraudulent recorded vote-counts that the MSM knows are coming.

Since 2000, LV poll projections have closely matched recorded vote-count shares, while RV poll projections closely matched unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls. In each election, the final exit polls were "forced" to match the recorded vote-count. . In 2004 and 2008, the Final National Exit Poll required impossible returning-Bush-voter turnout in order to match the recorded vote. Since pre-election LV poll predictions also matched the recorded vote, what can we conclude?

The media cites low Democratic enthusiasm in the 2010 midterms, but turnout will exceed the LV sub-sample % of RV. Unfortunately, most pollsters won’t provide RV samples in the two weeks prior to the election. The media will gush on how close the final LV predictions came to the vote but ignore the real reason: systemic election fraud.

[Peace Patriot]

1. K&R! No one can prove you wrong because the votes are counted with 'TRADE SECRET' code--

--code that the public is forbidden to review and that is owned and controlled largely (80%) by one, private, far rightwing-connected corporation--ES&S, which just bought out Diebold--with virtually no audit/recount controls.

Well, you could be proven wrong in about half the states in the country, which at least have a paper ballot backup to the 'TRADE SECRET' totals, but nobody counts about 99% of those actual ballots, and the other half of the states in this country don't have ANY ability to audit the 'TRADE SECRET' results. In summary, ES&S's totals on ACCEPTED ON FAITH throughout the country. And THAT is the worst violation of the separation of church and state that we have yet seen. Church = the corporate rulers. State = the faithful.

This is so egregiously, horrendously, obviously, clearly, demonstrably anti-democratic that no one will talk about it, except a few of us weirdos who actually believe in democracy. And those few corpo-fascist media moguls with the ability to broadcast their propaganda far and wide are demonstrably, clearly, obviously, horrendously, egregiously interested in maintaining multinational corporate/war profiteer control of the U.S. government, so they will NEVER PERMIT any discussion of corporate 'TRADE SECRET' control of the vote tabulation--or of the "true vote" vs the phony vote--or any other pertinent questions about the perilous state of U.S. democracy-- a perfect Mobius strip of deception, illusion, power and control.

[byronius]

2. K&R.

[althecat]

3. KnR - TIA Is Tops (take that Nate Silver)

:Bounce:

[Hannah Bell]

4. k