Remember this headline? Electoral College Analysis Shows Tossup Between John McCain, Barack Obama

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.lifenews.com/2008/09/14/nat-4307/

Electoral College Analysis Shows Tossup Between John McCain, Barack Obama


by Steven Ertelt
LifeNews.com Editor
September 14, 2008


Washington, DC (LifeNews.com) – Americans have had long election nights after the last two presidential contests and this year appears no different. A LifeNews.com analysis and prediction shows McCain with a slim 270-268 advantage — but with a handful of states essentially too close to call and about 10 states having a chance to affect the outcome of the race.


Both candidates continue to hold on to the traditional states that have been in the Republican and Democratic columns for each of the last two presidential elections.


Obama has a stranglehold on the northeastern states other than New Hampshire and Pennsylvania and is strong on the West coast. McCain holds solid leads in the South as well as most of the Midwestern and Rock Mountain states.


The rest of the states divide into two categories — with those that lean in favor of one candidate or the other and those that are truly tossup states that will be won by a slim margin. These are the states that will determine the next president.


Looking at the “leaner” states, McCain appears likely to capture Montana (where he holds an 11 point lead), North Dakota (14 percent lead), and Indiana (leads in the last four polls) even though the Obama campaign has targeted them as possible states to take away from him.

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http://politicom.moldova.org/news/electoral-college-obama-365-mccain-173-175422-eng.html

Final Electoral College results: Obama 365, McCain 173

[snappyturtle]

1. I think the reason we're hearing and seeing SUCH an onslaught

of repuke proganda is the fear of the stated outcome above! I don't think 'they're' just covering their butts but are truly fearful.

[DarthDem]

2. Good Call

I had not thought of it before in precisely that way but I think you're right. Nicely put.

[leveymg]

3. WTF is LifeNews.com?

They were just wrong, at best, or push-polling (more likely).

[disillusioned73]

4. Voter suppression seems to be their intent...

I never bought the meme of McCain ever being within striking distance - I have learned alot in the last couple of years as it pertains to "media" and the corporate puppet masters that control things.

[Igel]

5. That was done a couple of days before the election in 2008?

No. Polling models tend to be better the closer to the election they're targeting. Undecideds decide, people hop over the fence for the last time. Pollsters shift from noting responses for all registered voters to just polling likely voters; they firm up their definitions. Because voters have a better sense of whether they'll vote, pollsters get a better set of responses for who a "likely" voter is going to be.

Predictive statistics deals with probabilities involving future events (or hypothetical events) and how to compensate for a lack of knowledge. More knowledge, better polling (on average :-)

Imagine what the poll for Obama vs. McCain would have shown had it been done in 1908.

(BTW, what's always fun is to look at poll numbers a year or two *after* the election.)