But when the 1980 campaign cycle began, Reagan was actually the Republican most Democrats wanted to run against; he was mainly known as a polarizing ideologue with a flimsy grasp of policy. The idea of Reagan's finger on the nuclear button, the thinking went, would be enough to keep Jimmy Carter in the White House for four more years, no matter how high inflation or unemployment was. (Ted Kennedy's backers were equally confident that their man, if he could derail Carter in the '80 primaries, would be able to defeat Reagan.) Many in the GOP establishment shared this view; Reagan was the candidate of the "New Right" -- the conservative grass-roots network that was steadily taking over the GOP in the 1970s, pushing aside the Rockefeller/Eastern Establishment crowd.
But Reagan, of course, ended up winning in 1980, in a rout. The reason was the economy (and, to a lesser extent, the Iran hostage crisis), which had brought Carter's poll numbers to frighteningly low levels. Voters simply wanted Carter out -- and if that meant voting for Reagan, so be it. That's the same basic attitude that explains the public's apparent willingness to vote for just about any Republican on the ballot this year. If that sentiment prevails in 2012, well, then maybe Palin could pull out a general election.
That said, it also should be noted that even in this year's absurdly anti-Democratic climate, the electorate does seem to have its limits. The perfect illustration of this comes in Delaware, where voters were ready to send Mike Castle, a long-serving Republican congressman, to the Senate in a cakewalk. But instead, the GOP base insisted on nominating Christine O'Donnell, whose antics and pronouncements have so unnerved voters that they're now poised to elect a Democrat, Chris Coons. And while Delaware is the most vivid illustration of Tea Party overreach this year, it's not the only one. Take Sharron Angle, who may still slip through in Nevada. But a generic Republican would have won that race by 15-20 points; Angle's liabilities have made it much closer than it ever should have been.
I don't think Sarah Palin would be as flawed a candidate as O'Donnell has been. But if the climate is right for the GOP in '12, I do believe that -- much more than Reagan did in '80 -- she'd test the willingness of voters to throw out the incumbent for someone, anyone.
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2010/11/01/palin_reagan_o_donnell&source=newsletter&utm_source=contactology&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Salon_Daily%20Newsletter%20%28Not%20Premium%29_7_30_110
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