Rachel just told Mrs. Greenspan that in the last two elections

[Subdivisions]

the Democrats picked up "50-some odd seats in the House. All of those are going to go back to republicans, plus some."

Whaaaat?

[Bolo Boffin]

1. Over the past two elections cycles, she means.

Democrats have picked up around 50 seats (mostly Blue Dogs), and that's going to be the bulk of the swing back tonight.

[Jackpine Radical]

2. Do you have any idea how obscure this post is?

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. ROFL

:thumbsup:

I had a philosophy professor once who told me that children - until about age 7 - tend to think that everybody sees what they see. At DU, it goes to age 97, I think.

:-)

[Subdivisions]

16. Did I leave something out? And why do you feel the need to insult people? n/t

[Subdivisions]

18. Looks like you're the only one that finds this 'obscure'. I gave you the two

conversants (was it wrong for me to assume you would know both of them) and I gave you the money statement. Then I asked a question.

What more do you fucking need?

[SugarShack]

3. Corporate media shills, corporate paid polling, and electronic voting machines.

Nuff said?

[BzaDem]

4. She's talking about the seats we won in 2006 and 2008. And she is right that Republican gains

this year will likely exceed the total gains we made in 2006 and 2008.

[Dawgs]

7. How do you know she's right?

You get the results already?

[gateley]

9. Jeez, she's just commenting on how it's been historically and I'm assuming going

by the polls. She didn't present it as fait accompli, just what she felt might be the outcome.

She could be right. She could be wrong. We'll have to wait and see. Calm down. :pals:

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[BzaDem]

20. Because ALL the data points in that direction? Because I'm not in denial like many here? n/t

[Subdivisions]

10. So was she saying that Dems will lose control of Congress???

Are we going to have a Leader Boner? REALLY????

I hope I'm just having a brain fart here.

[SteppingRazor]

17. Not definitely, but I'd put the odds of Speaker Boehner at better than 66 percent. n/t

[SteppingRazor]

5. Sounds about right.

If I recall correctly, Dems gained 31 in 2006 and 21 in 2008 for a total of 52. If this really does turn into a huge wave, the GOP could easily pick up 52 seats tonight. I'd consider anything under 50, even if the Dems lose control, to be a moral victory.

[Subdivisions]

12. If this country is that goddamned stupid, I may have to consider a move. n/t

[SteppingRazor]

14. Start considering. I don't know about 52 seats, but ...

if you're a Democrat, it's gonna be a long night.

[emulatorloo]

19. Moving is not the answer. Stay here and fight. n/t

[kwolf68]

21. That's the word

What I am hearing is...things COULD GO really bad for the Dems, losing 60-70 seats, and no chance the Dems hold congress.

If the Dems lose around 50 they should be fine with that. Chances of anything below 50 seat loss would signal a good sign for the Dems, but really want to keep losses in the low 50s if possible and hold the Senate.

[de novo]

6. She should have at least qualified it with "..those are the seats

likely or at risk of going back..."

I don't think it will be 50, FWIW, but it will most likely be Blue Dogs that we lose.

[xultar]

25. Right because being on the air and thinking as fast as she does

is so fucking easy.

[gateley]

8. And she explained, rationally and calmly and realistically, that the pendulum

always does swing, it's just swinging a little more quickly this time.

[treestar]

11. Are they really reading 435 separate polls?

Where are all of these guesses coming from? And why would every single district that elected a Democrat last time elect a Republican this time?

Mine is going from Repuke to Dem, so there's that possibility, too.

[BzaDem]

22. I think she's saying that we will lose the same NUMBER of seats (certainly not the same exact seats)

But yes, there have been many polls of individual districts. The scary part is that these polls forecast even MORE than a 54 seat swing. Of course, many are close, so there is a large margin of error, but the individual polls paint a scarier picture than some generic polls.

[BootinUp]

23. There were 2 interesting pieces at TPM

today you might find interesting.

Dead Dems Walking
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/11/dead-dems-walking-tpms-list-of-candidats-whove-been-written-off-by-their-party.php?ref=fpblg

Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: The GOP House Seats That Could Go Dem Tonight
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/11/every-cloud-has-a-silver-lining-the-gop-house-seats-that-could-go-dem-tonight.php?ref=fpb

[AndrewP]

24. Well, it honestly wouldn't be a surprise

The mid term elections tend to be tough on the incumbent party, plus this year you had the special mix of nutjob teabaggers getting breathless 24/7 coverage from the MSM. So that adds to it.

I'm certainly hopeful of being wrong, but I think any objective look at the scenario will indicate that it's not looking like a good night for the Democrats when it comes to the House.

Let's see what happens though. We can certainly hope that some of these jerks like Paul, Bachmann and Angle go down to defeat.