My Alaskan Senate Preditction

[AnArmyVeteran]

33% Scott McAdams (D)

32% Lisa Murkowski (R)

27% Joe Miller (R-Insane Tea Bagger)

6% Misspelled/thrown-out Murkowski votes

2% Miscellaneous write-in candidates

[Ken Burch]

1. God I hope you're right.

n/t.

[Vincardog]

2. How does that end? Do they have a run off? Or do we let the activist court settle it?

[Ken Burch]

7. No, up here you just win if you get the most votes

Most of our most recent governors were elected with less than a majority of the popular vote(the last to get a majority, IIRC, was Tony Knowles, who took 51% in his re-election campaign in 1998). Caribou Barbie only took 48% when she won in 2006.

[Vincardog]

14. Thanks Good luck

[Blue_In_AK]

8. No run-offs.

If Scott doesn't win it outright, I think there will be legal challenges. Joe will question every single one of Lisa's write-ins, you can count on it.

[RZM]

3. Certainly possible

I don't know though. I just have a hard time thinking Murkowski can get it done as a write-in. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's just the sense I get. I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up in third.

[FSogol]

4. Mudcowski? Murcowky? Morkoski? Murkwowski? Burkowski? Murkowskee?

Do the pencils for write-in ballots have good erasers?

[Wickerman]

12. Blutarsky

[thereismore]

17. He'd fit right in with Rand Paul. nt

[Lance_Boyle]

36. for shame!

Bluto would cut Rand Paul up like a dead horse.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

33. You forgot the most important one.

Lebowski

[FSogol]

34. Lisa Lebowski......Abideth not.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

35. I think McAdams would really tie the state together. nt

[blue_roses_lib]

40. This agression will not stand man! - n/t

[Blue_In_AK]

5. It's going to be a close one.

I'm feeling optimistic for Scott's chances. He has finished very strong.

[cbdo2007]

6. My prediction is we dont' know how this election turned out until 2011.

[K8-EEE]

9. oh please oh please oh please oh please

Can I tell you that would MAKE MY DAY to have Sarahcuda be kingmaker -- of DEMS! :rofl:

[AnArmyVeteran]

13. Love it! "Sarahcuda"!!! For every Akaskan, I hope Scott wins!

My prediction is as valid as any other in this election.

[K8-EEE]

10. I heard they have to fill in an oval along with writing the name

Or it doesn't count -- for sure there will be 6-10% not doing that, I'm guessing.

[Qutzupalotl]

15. It's intent of the voter

so the oval (I think) is just for the opti-scan. If there's a hand recount, which is very likely, those unfilled circles and even the misspellings will still count.

[thereismore]

18. If that's the law in Alaska. I think you are right though. nt

[K8-EEE]

22. Oh, that makes sense.

So if the margin is that close, it for sure would go re-count then.

[AnArmyVeteran]

24. I've heard over and over again any misspelled names are thrown out.

I thought that was Alaskan law. What would a vote counter do if they came across a name like 'Murkomillerski'? Give it to Murkowski or Miller?

[Qutzupalotl]

26. Rove (pushing Miller) wants people to think misspellings are thrown out,

and I'm sure that's been repeated a lot. As I understand it, close misspellings (where the intent is clear) will count. Murkomillerski won't.
:)

[roguevalley]

39. it depends on intent think florida 2000

[Blue_In_AK]

28. No, the Division of Elections has been clear that the oval

must be filled in, one place where they haven't caved in to Murkowski pressure. This is from a Q&A in today's Anchorage Daily News

Q. Speaking of write-in votes: What counts, and how are they counted?

A. Write-in ballots are only opened and counted by hand if there are enough to flat-out win the race or if the number of write-ins comes a close second -- within .5 percent -- of the candidate with the most votes.

Simply writing a candidate's first name or initials may not work. State law calls for voters to fill out the last name of the candidate, or his or her full name as it appears on the candidate's declaration to run.

Ballots that include a write-in name but don't have the oval filled in won't be counted, Fenumiai said. Filling in the oval is a requirement of state law.

Minor misspellings are probably OK, she said.

As division director, Fenumiai is the one who will decide which entries count and which don't, with input from the Department of Law, she said.

After the election the sealed ballots will be flown to Juneau and locked away, Fenumiai said. If necessary, the job of counting them by hand would fall to teams of workers who normally perform a hand count of random precincts as part of the state's election verification process.

Campaigns are allowed to watch the hand-count process. They can object to whether individual ballots should be counted, which won't change the results but causes the ballot to be placed in a "challenge" envelope in case there's a lawsuit after the election is certified.



Read more: http://www.adn.com/2010/11/01/1530961/qa-a-few-things-to-get-you-through.html#ixzz149WJZnaO

[Toots]

11. I think you might be right spot on....

The race will be between Murkowski and McAdams IMO and I am beginning to feel he just may pull it off.

[AtomicKitten]

16. Murkowski is probably heavily lawyered up.

I think the write-in list of candidates provided voters at the polling places in Alaska precludes the notion of "intent" and there should be NO EXCUSE for spelling her name wrong. No mercy.

[napi21]

19. I have a question about AK. elections. I heard yesterday that

if none of the candidates got at least 50% of the vote, there would have to be a run off or some other method to decide the winner. I only heard this once and it was a short news clip on the radio (KPOJ in OR.). Is that true or is the decision strictly based on who gets the ost votes?

[Blue_In_AK]

30. No, that's not correct at all.

We've had numerous elections over the years that have been won with less than a majority, some by only one or two votes. Run-offs are allowed in mayoral and school board elections, but not in statewide elections.

[madinmaryland]

20. How long is this election going to be stuck in the courts??

Guaranteed to happen if there are 6% the way you suggest.

[Blue_In_AK]

31. The write-ins won't even be counted unless they are within

.5% of the apparent winner.

[Change Happens]

21. Right on - AGREED!

[K8-EEE]

23. Imagine if it goes recount Scott & Lisa and goes on forever

hahaha, double humiliation for Joe & Sarah!!

[LiberalLoner]

25. I hope you are right! I'll bet you are! :) n/t

[AnArmyVeteran]

38. The 'data' I used came from OOMA.org!

OOMA = Out Of My Ass, but I think my prediction is as valid as any other. And mine didn't cost a dime! I sure hope Scott wins!!!

Thanks LL! :)

[Blue_In_AK]

27. I like the way you think.

This is going to be extremely close, and results won't be known for two or three weeks at least.


ed. Oops, I just noticed I already responded to you. Sorry for repeating myself.

[joeybee12]

29. I really hope you're right...KNR

[Cognitive_Resonance]

32. Looks about right. nt

[opihimoimoi]

37. Lordy...I hope so.... :o)