11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

[tiptoe]

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/cJFMcx

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48  (53-45 before vote miscounts)

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

Nov 1, 2010

The LV Model predicts a 234-201 GOP House and a 50-48 Democratic Senate. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball predicts a 233-202 GOP House and a 49-49 Senate. Electoral-vote.com has a 51-48 Democratic Senate and a 217-201 GOP House with 17 ties. But the registered voter (RV) projections tell a different story.

The Democrats lead the weighted average of 18 Senate RV polls by 8.5%. They lead the corresponding LV sub-samples by 0.9%.
The RV projections indicate a 53-45 Democratic Senate.

Senate Forecast
(UVA – undecided voter allocation)

Charnin Model
Table 1 – Simulation

18 RV + 19 LV
18 LV + 19 LV

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )

Table 5 – Projection
I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50% GOP

No fraud
3% vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )

II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud
3% Vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )

Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball
Electoral-vote.com

 

Forecast Seats

 

Dem Seat

DEM
52.9
49.7



52.7
49.3


54.0
50.8

49
51

GOP
45.1
48.3



45.3
48.7


44.0
47.2

49
48

Margin
+ 7.8
+ 1.4



+ 7.4
+ 0.6


+ 10.0
+  3.6

  0
+ 3

Table 1

2010 Midterms:Senate and House Forecast Model
Senate Forecast Simulation Summary

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate    bit.ly/azDXlw 

[althecat]

1. KnR - TIA Is Tops (take that Nate Silver)

:bounce:

[Hannah Bell]

2. knr