11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

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Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/doVXk4

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

Nov 1, 2010

House Generic Model

The GOP leads the latest 30 House Generic LV polls by 6.8%. They lead the latest 19 RV polls by just 0.7%.
The RV projections indicate a 221-214 Republican House.

The Democrats lead in the following Generic Ballot RV polls: Pew, ABC/WaPo, CBS/NYT, McClatchy/Marist, Newsweek, NBC.

House Generic Forecast
(UVA – undecided voter allocation)

Charnin Model
Table 6 – Projection

19 RV
30 LV

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )
 

Table 7 – Projection
I. UVA: 50% Dem / 50% GOP

No fraud
3% vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )
 

II. UVA: 60% Dem / 40% GOP

No fraud
3% Vote switch

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )
 

Larry Sabato: Crystal Ball
Electoral-vote.com

 

Forecast Seats

 

GOP Seat

DEM
214.1
200.8



214.1
200.9


218.7
205.5

202
201

GOP
220.9
234.2



220.9
234.1


216.3
229.5

233
217

Margin
+ 6.8
+ 33.4



+ 6.8
+ 33.2


- 2.4
+ 24.0

+ 31
+ 16

(Dems could take the House in a fair election)



(17 too close to call)

 

House Generic

 

Average Poll Share

Dem

 

Projected Share (%)

 

Simulated Seat Proj

WinProb

10/3 - 10/30

RV
LV
Deviation
Total

( true vote )
( recorded vote count )


 

2010 Polls

Non-Rasmussen
Rasmussen (LV)
Difference
Total

Polls

19
30
-
49


156
41
-
197

Dem
%
44.4
41.9
2.5
42.9


43.2
37.2
6.0
42.0

GOP
%
45.1
48.5
(3.6)
47.3


45.8
45.4
0.4
45.7

Spread
%
- 0.7
- 6.8
+ 6.1
- 4.4


- 2.6
- 8.1
+ 5.6
- 3.7

 

Dem
%
49.6
46.6
3.0
47.8


48.7
45.9
2.8
48.1

GOP
%
50.4
53.4
3.0
52.2


51.3
54.1
(2.8)
51.9

 

Dem

214
201
13
206


210
198
12
208

GOP

221
234
(13)
229


225
237
(12)
227

GOP

61%
99%

94%


78%
100%

91%

 

Table 8

Latest Generic Polls

 

PROJECTION  UVA

50%

50%

 

 

POLL

 

 PROJECTED 2-PARTY SHARE      GOP

 

GOP

 

GOP

 

10-POLL MOVING AVERAGE        GOP     

 

Polling Firm
Gallup
Gallup
Pew Research
Pew Research
CNN/Opinion Research

CNN/Opinion Research
ABC News/Wash Post
ABC News/Wash Post
FOX News
FOX News

Zogby
Bloomberg
CBS News/NY Times
CBS News/NY Times
McClatchy/Marist

McClatchy/Marist
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
Gallup
Newsweek

Newsweek
Politico/GWU/Battleground
Pew Research
Pew Research
Associated Press/GfK

Associated Press/GfK
Democracy Corps (D)
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
Gallup

NBC
FOX News
FOX News
Reuters/Ipsos
Reuters/Ipsos

Zogby
Bloomberg
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
Gallup

CNN/Opinion Research
CNN/Opinion Research
CBS News/NY Times
Democracy Corps (D)
ABC News/Wash Post

ABC News/Wash Post
Rasmussen Reports
Gallup
Gallup
Newsweek

FOX News
Gallup
Rasmussen Reports
CNN/Opinion Research
Politico/GWU/Battleground
Reuters/Ipsos

Date
10/28 - 10/31
10/28 - 10/31
10/27 - 10/30
10/27 - 10/30
10/27 - 10/30

10/27 - 10/30
10/25 - 10/28
10/25 - 10/28
10/26 - 10/28
10/26 - 10/28

10/25 - 10/27
10/24 - 10/26
10/21 - 10/26
10/21 - 10/26
10/22 - 10/25

10/22 - 10/25
10/18 - 10/24
10/14 - 10/24
10/14 - 10/24
10/20 - 10/21

10/20 - 10/21
10/20 - 10/21
10/13 - 10/18
10/13 - 10/18
10/13 - 10/18

10/13 - 10/18
10/16 - 10/18
10/11 - 10/17
10/11 - 10/17
10/07 - 10/17

10/11 - 10/13
10/11 - 10/13
10/11 - 10/13
10/7 - 10/11
10/7 - 10/11

10/7 - 10/10
10/7 - 10/10
10/4 - 10/10
9/30 - 10/10
9/30 - 10/10

10/5 - 10/7
10/5 - 10/7
10/1- 10/5
10/2 - 10/4
9/30 - 10/3

9/30 - 10/3
9/27 - 10/3
9/27 - 10/3
9/27 - 10/3
9/29 - 9/30

9/28 - 9/29
9/20 - 9/26
9/20 - 9/26
9/21 - 9/23
9/19 - 9/22
9/16 - 9/19

Sample
2027
1539
2373
1809
921

542
1015
786
1200
764

2067
1000
1073
na
807

461
3500
3000
1989
848

773
1000
1797
1354
1338

846
801
3500
3000
1900

1000
1200
687
854
720

2071
721
3500
3000
1953

938
504
na
867
879

669
3500
1882
3000
902

900
3000
3500
506
1000
953

Type
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV

LV
RV
LV
RV
LV

LV
LV
RV
LV
RV

LV
LV
RV
LV
RV

LV
LV
RV
LV
RV

LV
LV
LV
RV
LV

RV
RV
LV
RV
LV

LV
LV
LV
RV
LV

RV
LV
LV
LV
RV

LV
LV
LV
RV
RV

RV
RV
LV
LV
LV
RV

GOP
48
55
43
48
49

52
45
49
46
50

50
47
45
49
41

46
49
48
52
42

45
45
46
50
46

50
50
47
47
53

41
41
48
46
48

45
40
47
47
53

47
52
45
49
43

49
45
53
46
43

44
46
46
53
47
45

Dem
44
40
44
42
43

42
49
44
37
36

42
42
46
43
47

46
40
44
43
48

48
40
42
40
47

43
45
39
44
42

44
39
39
44
44

45
42
39
44
41

47
45
37
43
47

43
42
40
43
48

39
46
40
44
42
46

Spread
4
15
(1)
6
6

10
(4)
5
9
14

8
5
(1)
6
(6)

0
9
4
9
(6)

(3)
5
4
10
(1)

7
5
8
3
11

(3)
2
9
2
4

0
(2)
8
3
12

0
7
8
6
(4)

6
3
13
3
(5)

5
0
6
9
5
(1)

GOP
52.0
57.5
49.5
53.0
53.0

55.0
48.0
52.5
54.5
57.0

54.0
52.5
49.5
53.0
47.0

50.0
54.5
52.0
54.5
47.0

48.5
52.5
52.0
55.0
49.5

53.5
52.5
54.0
51.5
55.5

48.5
51.0
54.5
51.0
52.0

50.0
49.0
54.0
51.5
56.0

50.0
53.5
54.0
53.0
48.0

53.0
51.5
56.5
51.5
47.5

52.5
50.0
53.0
54.5
52.5
49.5

Dem
48.0
42.5
50.5
47.0
47.0

45.0
52.0
47.5
45.5
43.0

46.0
47.5
50.5
47.0
53.0

50.0
45.5
48.0
45.5
53.0

51.5
47.5
48.0
45.0
50.5

46.5
47.5
46.0
48.5
44.5

51.5
49.0
45.5
49.0
48.0

50.0
51.0
46.0
48.5
44.0

50.0
46.5
46.0
47.0
52.0

47.0
48.5
43.5
48.5
52.5

47.5
50.0
47.0
45.5
47.5
50.5

Margin

4
15
(1)
6
6

10
(4)
5
9
14

8
5
(1)
6
(6)

0
9
4
9
(6)

(3)
5
4
10
(1)

7
5
8
3
11

(3)
2
9
2
4

0
(2)
8
3
12

0
7
8
6
(4)

6
3
13
3
(5)

5
0
6
9
5
(1)

Seats
228
252
217
232
232

241
211
230
239
250

237
230
217
232
206

219
239
228
239
206

213
230
228
241
217

235
230
237
226
243

213
224
239
224
228

219
215
237
226
246

219
235
237
232
211

232
226
248
226
208

230
219
232
239
230
217

WinProb
96%
100%
31%
99%
97%

99%
10%
92%
100%
100%

100%
94%
37%
98%
4%

50%
100%
99%
100%
4%

20%
94%
96%
100%
36%

98%
92%
100%
95%
100%

17%
76%
99%
72%
86%

50%
30%
100%
95%
100%

50%
94%
100%
96%
12%

94%
96%
100%
95%
7%

93%
50%
100%
98%
94%
38%

GOP
53.2
53.4
52.9
52.9
52.9

52.3
51.8
52.5
52.4
52.4

51.4
50.9
50.9
51.1
51.3

51.6
51.9
51.7
51.9
51.6

52.5
52.5
52.3
52.6
52.2

52.4
52.1
51.7
51.7
51.7

51.8
51.9
52.2
52.1
52.3

51.9
52.2
52.5
52.7
52.7

51.9
52.1
51.8
51.7
51.8

52.3
51.9
51.7
51.6
51.7

52.2
52.1
52.2
52.4
51.9
51.6

Dem
46.8
46.6
47.1
47.1
47.1

47.7
48.2
47.6
47.6
47.6

48.6
49.2
49.2
48.9
48.7

48.5
48.1
48.3
48.1
48.4

47.6
47.6
47.7
47.5
47.9

47.6
48.0
48.3
48.3
48.3

48.3
48.1
47.9
47.9
47.7

48.1
47.8
47.6
47.3
47.3

48.2
47.9
48.3
48.4
48.2

47.8
48.1
48.3
48.5
48.3

47.8
48.0
47.9
47.7
48.2
48.4

Margin

6.4
6.8
5.8
5.8
5.8

4.6
3.6
4.9
4.8
4.8

2.8
1.7
1.7
2.2
2.6

3.1
3.8
3.4
3.8
3.2

4.9
4.9
4.6
5.1
4.3

4.8
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.4

3.5
3.8
4.3
4.2
4.6

3.8
4.4
4.9
5.4
5.4

3.7
4.2
3.5
3.3
3.6

4.5
3.8
3.4
3.1
3.4

4.4
4.1
4.3
4.7
3.7
3.2

[Hannah Bell]

1. knr

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2. thanks! nt