11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

[tiptoe]

Richard Charnin’s 2010 Midterm House and Senate Forecast Models: RV/LV Polls and Election Fraud    bit.ly/chL3qT

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)         source: http://richardcharnin.com/2010ElectionForecastModels.htm

Nov 1, 2010

Pre-election Kerry and Obama poll shares of "unlikely voters" ('RV minus LV') closely matched their National Exit Poll share of "new" voters ('DNV').

In 2004, final pre-election polls** indicated that Kerry had a 57.7% share of RV deemed by the LVCM "unlikely to vote" ('RV minus LV').
The '04 12:22am Prelim Nat'l Exit Poll showed Kerry had a  57%  share of first-time voters and other RV who did not vote in 2000 ('DNV').

In 2008, the final pre-election polls indicated that Obama had a 73.3% share of the "unlikely to vote" ('RV minus LV').
The vote-count-matched Final Nat'l Exit Poll showed him with a 71% share of the first-time and other voters who did not vote in 2004 ('DNV').

**NOTE:

1) The 2004 respectively-aggregated RV & LV-subsample final polls of CBS+Gallup+ABC+FOX+Pew give independent confirmation to the Preliminary exit poll of 2004 (Kerry, 51-48%, 1% MoE), not to the Final that was "forced" to match the recorded vote-count (Bush 51-48% and secret).


2) The 2006 unadjusted national exit poll additionally shows 48% of 6113 return-voters indicated "Bush" when polled for their vote in 2004 (Col 55•2,957).

Vote'04
Kerry
Bush
Other

2006 Unadj
47.33%
48.37%
4.30%

2004 Prelim
50.78%
48.22%
1%

2004 Final
48%
51%
1%

 

Matching near exactly, the 2006 unadjusted exit poll Bush share is yet another independent confirmation of the 2004 Preliminary NEP vote-share and, thereby, further indication the forced-match basis for the '04 Final NEP (51%-Bush) was bogus, i.e., the 2004 recorded vote count was fraudulent. With Bush share unwavering, the impossible 4.3% "Other" implies returning-Kerry voters near-wholly comprise the 3.3% share-difference with 2004, with relatively few, if any, identifying with the "winner". Any "GOP" 'bandwagon effect' in 2006 is insignificant, if not entirely absent.

3) For 2008, the equivalent unadjusted Preliminary national exit poll shares were unreleased by the consortium of news outlets Fox, CNN, AP, ABC, CBS and NBC. Two years post-election, the 51 unadjusted state and 3 un-forced preliminary-national exit polls remain suppressed. Could it have something to do with cover-up of Obama's TRUE margin of victory, since the 2004 and 2006 un-forced exit polls expose Bush's fraudulent victory?

The projected turnout of registered voters is the ratio:
Turnout = LV poll sub-sample / RV poll full-sample

The Democratic two-party share of unlikely voters is the ratio of unlikely Dem RVs to unlikely Dem and GOP RVs.
Dem share = Dem / (Dem + GOP )


In 1988, 11 million votes were uncounted; in 2000, 6 million; in 2004, 4 million; in 2006, 3 million.

In 2004, 2006 and 2008, projections based on final pre-election LV polls closely matched fraudulent recorded vote count shares. Projections based on the final pre-election RV polls closely matched the unadjusted exit polls. Undecided voters typically break heavily for the challenger. In each of the last three elections, the Democrats were the challengers, but many pollsters did not allocate accordingly. Democratic voter turnout was underestimated by the pre-election LV polls (see 2004 Final Pre-election Polls).                   bit.ly/d2yEQh                  bit.ly/claROe               bit.ly/aW4gYX

GOP Forecast Sensitivity to Undecided Voter Allocation and Poll Type

GOP

Vote Share %

 

Seats (latest polls)

 

Seats (simulation)

 

Net Gain

UVA
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%

LV
51.4
51.9
52.3
52.7
53.1

RV&LV
48.7
49.2
49.7
50.2
50.7

 

LV
47
49
49
49
49

RV&LV
44
45
45
45
45

 

LV
47.1
47.6
48.3
48.5
49.1

RV&LV
43.9
44.5
45.1
45.7
46.7

 

LV
6.1
6.6
7.3
7.5
8.1

RV&LV
2.9
3.5
4.1
4.7
5.7

 

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

 

[deaniac21]

1. Don't squeeze the Charnin.

[tiptoe]

2. Second independent confirmation of Bush 48% in 2004 ( from 2006 National Exit Poll )

see NOTE in OP

 

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Fraud Component

 

[althecat]

3. KnR - TIA Is Tops (take that Nate Silver)

:bounce:

[Hannah Bell]

4. knr