The current NBC Projection is 57 seat gain +/- 13

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I think I have the math right.

The NBC projection is D-199, R-236

I think that works out to a 57 seat gain.

If that pans out then it's in line with the consensus estimates of 54-56.

I will root for a gain below 50 which is still a possibility. (And anything under 54 is better than 1994, which would negate some of the most-est, huge-est superlatives tomorrow.)

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/11/02/5397904-nbc-republicans-will-gain-control-of-the-house-

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Personally I cannot believe with all the ground game

that they will have a super majority.

But that is just me...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. I never said this earlier today, not wanting to be a wet blanket, but

I was not happy about the reports of high turn-out.

This year we had the machine and die-hard partisans... the ground game.

With low turnout we had a better chance. We got swamped by the crazies.

The Gallup likely voters model that had pugs +15 was their high-turnout model. (45%) Their lower turnout model (40%) only had pugs up by ten or eleven.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. And Van Hollen agrees

I am sorry, smell rat.

[Robyn66]

3. Un fucking beleivable (nt)

[DarthDem]

4. Silly

Really disappointed that NBC did that. Chuckie Todd and Andrea Mitchell's influence, no doubt.

It's a stupid early call that has no more basis than early calls before that have been walked back. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to tell anything yet. The only Democratic U.S. Rep. (incumbent or candidate) who's lost so far who surprises me is Boucher, VA-09. And that's not a huge surprise, either.

[StevieM]

6. Actually, the GOP picked up 52 House seats in 1994. They picked up an additional

seat in 1995 during a special election for an open seat. And there may have been one vacant GOP seat in November 94 which they reclaimed on Election night. But the actual size of the turnover was 52 seats.

I think the Republicans wil pick up 52 seats tonight, give or take a few. We'll do a little better in the Senate--they'll only get 6 or 7, as opposed to 8 in 1994 (although the map was more hostile in 94, with more Dem seats to defend). The two elections will probably be regarded as comparable, and get linked together in the history books.

But at the end of the day, I still think President Obama will win re-election. Partly because all his potential opponents are lunatics, partly because the economy is recovering and partly because the American people are about to find out what the GOP really stands for.

Steve

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. Thank you for the correction

:hi: