If The Election Exit Polls Are Right For A Change..... then it means one of two things....

[althecat]

Noting that the exit polls have been consistently wrong since 1998 we can conclude that if they are much improved then...

...either

1. This is the first election since 1996 which has not been subject to widespread election (tabulator/touchscreen) fraud.

... or...

2. The Exit Pollsters have changed their methodology - and in that case we want to know what they have changed.


What do you think? Should we have a poll?

******

To answer this question:

If anyone has any information about how close the exit polls are looking to finals I would be very interested....

We could start by checking these numbers.

Blumenthal (D-CT) +8
Rubio (R-FL) +21
Blunt (R-MO) +10
Boxer (D-CA) +8
Kirk (R-IL) +6
Paul (R-KY) +11,
NV--EVEN
Bennet (D-CO) +2
Toomey (R-PA) +4
Murray (D-WA) +6
Manchin (D-WV) +7
Johnson (R-WI) +5

Which were posted before polling closed and should be (pre-digested) unless the polsters have have changed their methodology.


Source Huffington Post - But Later Deleted


:bounce:

Althecat

P.S. I will be at the Airport in Wellington early tomorrow to greet your Secretary of State and will post pictures.. from the look of things the relationship between Aotearoa and the USA is on the improve....

[Kurovski]

1. K&R. (nt)

[althecat]

2. Thanks K....

I may have to answer my own question :)

[althecat]

4. And one more makes 6 - if you think this a question worth answering KnR

[tiptoe]

6. K&R

very "close" contest all night...but %49-Lever, 26%-DRE in 2004

See: http://bit.ly/biPfrU

[althecat]

3. It shows a certain level of restraint that the election stealers haven't stolen the Senate...

Perhaps they don't need it.

How many blue dogs are there in the Senate - enough for Cloture?

[althecat]

9. How many blue dogs are there in the Senate - enough for Cloture?

See also....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x9457336

[EFerrari]

5. That's a good question, Al.

DUer Junkdrawer earlier asked, how can we have record turnout AND so many losses.

And I will add, how did CA elect Boxer and Brown but not pot. When I asked the same question about Obama / Prop 8, it turned out the Prop 8 vote was likely corrupted in L.A. County. :shrug:

Lots of questions tonight.

:kick:

[althecat]

7. Hi Elizabeth... yes indeed many questions...

In terms of Pot... its a pretty tricky issue that one, a burning one even :)

... so far as us antipodeans are concerned we get the impression CA has already legalised it :)

[EFerrari]

10. The prison guards union is one of the biggest lobbies here.

In fact, I'm not sure that prisons aren't a growth industry in the state. And even if law enforcement thinks pot busting is a pain, they are all worried about lay offs. I'd still like to see the numbers, though. L.A. County won't be in for a day or so.

[althecat]

13. It will certainly be interesting....

The issues Prisons and Pot have an interesting juxtaposition.

In the UK the Home Office (Police) and Ministry of Justice (Corrections) are both facing 25% budget cuts because of the GFC. This means less incarceration.... it has to.

California has similar issues with its budget and if you legalise pot you win twice - less crime - less prisoners and more sales tax.

:)

[glinda]

12. I think a lot does not add up

[EFerrari]

14. The selling of the narrative in the media was so relentless

it gave me flashbacks to 2004.

I want to look at the trouble reports tomorrow and at where the losses happened and see what presents itself.

[althecat]

17. I would be curious about Feingold and Pelosi - just because they are such juicy targets....

Especially Feingold... he stands for everything the haters hate the most. Thought. Peace. Integrity. Its odd that he wins all through the war years and then loses now....

[EFerrari]

19. Feingold should appeal to the small government people.

Against NAFTA, against all the ftas, against the Patriot Act, against the bail out, against the health insurance act.

ETA: Nancy won her race. She just won't be Speaker now.

[althecat]

20. Doh!

Yes of course... so what was the main attack angle on Feingold?

[EFerrari]

21. I've heard he was outspent 4-1.

Russ is an interesting target because he's not only a target for the right but also for the pro-World Bank, pro-IMF free traders or as Gore Vidal calls them, our owners.

[althecat]

26. Yes... and such a rich target would attract a bounty perhaps?

Tis a shame he conceded. The final result was actually quite close.

[althecat]

8. Hi Tiptoe.....What's TIA's latest.....

You should post us a link.

[tiptoe]

15. Here ya go -- five, with 4 still rec'able

 

The anti-TIA throng has been Un-rec'ing systematically, so any K&Rs would be appreciated.

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems keep Senate 50-48 (53-45 before vote miscounts)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Dems lead Generic RV polls (Pew, ABC, CBS, McClatchy, Newsweek, NBC)

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: The Fraud Component

11/01 Charnin Midterms Model: Undecided Voters, Turnout and Final Exit Polls

10/31 Charnin Midterms Forecast: LV poll model matches Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, but...

 

[althecat]

16. KnR (all five) - TIA Is Tops (take that Nate Silver) - Someone who knows his numbers....

:bounce:

Thanks Tiptoe....

[Cetacea]

11. It's the Rove witching hours.

[althecat]

18. And what happens in the Rove witching hours?

[Cetacea]

29. I didn't vote. And I'm proud to say it.

[althecat]

22. So to answer the question - YES the Exit Polls were largely right this time round....

At least based on the early leaked results anyway...

*************

Blumenthal (D-CT) +8

TICK ------------> and + 8 it is


Rubio (R-FL) +21

TICK ------------> and + 19 it is


Blunt (R-MO) +10

TICK ------------> and + 13 it is

Boxer (D-CA) +8

TICK ------------> and + 7 it is

Kirk (R-IL) +6


Diverges ----> Kirk + 2 it is

Divergence = 4 points towards Dems

Paul (R-KY) +11,

TICK -------------> and + 12 it is

NV--EVEN

Diverges ----> Reid by 5

Divergence = 5 points towards Dems


Bennet (D-CO) +2


Diverges -----> Buck by 1


Divergence = 3 points towards GOP


Toomey (R-PA) +4


TICK --------------> Toomey +2


Murray (D-WA) +6


Diverges ------> Tied

Divergence = 6 points towards GOP


Manchin (D-WV) +7


Diverges --------> Manchin + 11

Divergence = 4 points towards Dems

Johnson (R-WI) +5


TICK ----------------> Johnson +5

[althecat]

23. 7 out of 12 races almost spot on.....

[althecat]

24. 5 races diverge 3-6 points from predicted - two in favour of GOP - three in favour of DEMS

[althecat]

25. Which begs the question - what did the Exit Pollsters do differently this time?

And for me at least I now worry about American democracy greatly..... the canary may now be dead.

[Kurovski]

35. Kick

Thank you, Al. You ask the questions the rest of us have been bludgeoned into abandoning.

[Cetacea]

27. .

[althecat]

42. ... at least they are in this sample of 12 (a full list would be good)

[mstinamotorcity]

28. I Am Not A Mathematician

And don't want to be a conspiracy type person. But this was just a little too neat for me.

First it was this False infraction of the Republican party called the Tea Party. Then Citizens United. Then The Republicans say they are not with the Tea Party. Then let the field of Tea Party Candidates get down to who they think is most viable, and embrace what they say is extreme. Even though the Tea Party is the Republican party for years.At least since I was a little girl.

Then all the Media, and I do me all start to embrace the Republicans taking back the House and Boehnerr becoming speaker of the House even before one poll or one vote was cast. Then we got polls up the wahzoo telling us that Republicans were going to take the house by so many votes. Their prediction 39. Almost to the tee. And how is it I have family and friends in 14 states around the country and "none" of them have been polled. And to watch on election night where there was no total precincts in but all were declared winners except where incumbents held strong positions. (maybe numbers they could not Alter) I do not know. It was just a little too neat in my opinion. And all this talk about what the American people want. Did I move to Japan???

[althecat]

34. Good morning - pictures of Hillary Clinton arriving in Wellington as promised...

Can be viewed here...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1011/S00030/images-welcome-to-new-zealand-secretary-clinton.htm

Not strictly relevant to this discussion obviously.

[WinkyDink]

30. Exit polling has always been correct, INCLUDING 2000 (the salient year here).

[althecat]

33. Are you being ironic.... the exit polling has been wrong since 1998

[WinkyDink]

39. The exit polls in 2000 showed Gore won Florida.

Exit-poll data showed Gore with a lead in Florida, and after most polls there closed at 7 p.m., early returns, in combination with mathematical "models" of Florida voting, bolstered the data. The networks, led by NBC, called the state for Gore, and pundits all but declared it was time to stick a fork in Bush; he was done. The call infuriated the Bush camp because voters in the conservative Florida panhandle, which is in the Central time zone, still had eight minutes to vote.

An hour and a half later, though, VNS alerted the networks that some of its exit-poll and vote-count information was wrong, and the actual vote started showing a trend for Bush.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,998547,00.html#ixzz14JMfwBvB
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IOW: Bushco got to VNS.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Polling showing Kerry winning:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:eT2XLnKFyeQJ:www.slate.com/id/2109053/+kerry+exit+polling&cd=3&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

Of course, this election was stolen, as well.

[Kurovski]

31. Kick. (nt)

[Kurovski]

32. Kick. (nt)

[SugarShack]

36. in fla you can't get near the voters for an exit poll....we must be 100 ft away.

That is because exit polling is more reliable than corporate polls. So we can't get near the voters anymore by law...

[Kurovski]

37. Kick. (nt)

[althecat]

38. .

[xchrom]

40. Kick for the interesting questions. Nt

[Kurovski]

41. Kick. (nt)