tonight SO reminds me of midterm election night 2002 on DU....

[mike_c]

The palpable sense of defeat, the despair of betrayal, the shock of realizing how utterly stupid and fearful the American electorate really is. Anyone else remember 2002 on DU? Remember being convinced that Bush was somehow all a mistake and voters would make that completely clear at the polls, then the crashing sense of unreality as voters consolidated republican power instead of repudiating it? And how galling that such a cast of criminals, grifters, and idiot sons were at the heart of that "movement?"

Yeah, it feels like 2002 all over again.

[Frances]

1. One bright spot

Erhlich won the governor's race in Maryland in 2002, but good ole Democrat O'Malley got 60% of the vote tonight, defeating Erlich for the second time!!

And another bright spot, my new home state CA will probably defeat Whitman and Carly Fiorna.

[Bumblebee]

2. Well, on the bright side, we did have 2008, and so it's not THAT bad

[mike_c]

5. those six years in the wilderness were some of the longest of my life....

Just sayin'. I hope the relief comes sooner, this time.

[madmax]

3. I don't remember being on DU that day as much as

today but, I do remember the feelings you describe. Ah, the Voter's. Yes.

[librechik]

4. yes---choke--more Jamesons

fug this fugging stupid country

[Naturyl]

6. There's a lot of wishful thinking at DU.

DUers often seem to want to believe Amercians are going to magically "wake up" at every election. But it never happens. Even in 2008, we won because we had the better candidate and the better campaign, not because Americans suddenly became geniuses in the voting booth.

This time around, it's been the Tea Party that has been the center of all media attention, and that's why they won.

[BolivarianHero]

7. Yep...

I even remember "If KY is called for McConnell immediately, it will be a true GOP night."

[Coventina]

8. Yes, I remember that night well. It was terrible. I argue tonight is not

as terrible on a national level.

On a personal level, it's just as terrible, because I lost my Dem. Congressman and now have a Republican crook.

:cry:

I love you Harry Mitchell!

[madrchsod]

9. 2002 and 2004.....

[Lex]

10. I didn't watch any political shows for weeks and weeks after 2004 election.

I was utterly demoralized that this country would put George W. Bush back in office.

[depakid]

11. It surely does

[Arugula Latte]

12. Yep.

Terrible.

[budkin]

13. 2004 was the absolute worst for me

[MuseRider]

14. I remember it too well.

I am more upset tonight about my state to worry much about the country although I am not happy about that either. My state has gone backwards 100 years all at once and we had yet to really make it into this century.

I do remember thinking the voters would show that 2000 had been a mistake and being totally wiped out that it turned out the way it did. Yes, it does feel much the same but this time I saw it coming, I think a lot of it was deserved actually. Hopefully the dems will learn from this but I am not going to hold my breath.

[mike_c]

15. yup, I agree....

You're in Georgia, if I recall correctly. I was born there, and grew up north of Atlanta in Clarke and Elbert counties. It's been a bleak place to be a liberal for many years-- generations, really. My condolences for your pain tonight. We will eventually prevail-- or if we fail, then these concerns will be the least of our worries.

:hug:

[MuseRider]

17. Nope, Kansas even worse now I think.

We got Brownback *gays are fruits *no abortion *the earth is 6000 years old *prayer in all public meeting places *an office of the repealer *no evolution *snowflake babies etc on his way to the presidential elections

Our new Sec of State is Kobach, the guy that helped author the Arizona law on "illegals"

From my last count there were about 4 democrats in the entire state that won anything. Hopefully there will be more but I am just too sick about this to care anymore.

[Kievan Rus]

16. I remember 2004 all too well

I was in college at the time and had finished all my classes by the time Kerry conceded. After that, I was totally dejected and took a three hour walk.

[charlie]

18. And the blame spraying

from the All Your Votes Are Belong To Us crowd, pointed at the Greens.

[Uzybone]

19. you mean 2004

[mike_c]

20. no, I mean 2002, the midterms between 2000 and 2004....

Like 2002, this is a midterm election that many democrats believed-- in their heart of hearts-- would validate and extend the mandate of 2008. Like 2002 though, the results have been pretty shocking and demoralizing instead of hopeful.

2002 on DU was a big wake-up for me. It was around that time that the term "sheeple" really came into vogue here as folks tried to grapple with the cognitive disconnect of the 2002 midterm republican takeover of congress.

[althecat]

21. Yes and that night started quite a lot.....

For example:

American Coup: Mid-Term Election Polls vs Actuals
Tuesday, 12 November 2002, 10:25 am

In the interests of further examining the question of whether the vote in some races in the U.S. midterm elections was fixed by electronic voting machines supplied by republican affiliated companies, Scoop has done some digging. How accurate were the pollsters in advance of the US mid-term elections?

Scoop’s analysis shows that - according to the polls - the Republican Party experienced a pronounced last minute swing in its favour of between 4 and 16 points. Remarkably this last minute swing appears to have been concentrated in its effects in critical Senate races (Georgia and Minnesota) where it secured it's complete control of Congress.

Scoop has compared the results of final week polling in 19 races, with the actual results in those same races.

The full details of the Scoop analysis follow below. In summary Scoop found:

- 14 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Republican Party (by between 3 and 16 points);
- 2 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Democratic Party (by 2 and 4 points);
- In three races the pollsters were close to correct;
- The largest post opinion poll vote swings occurred in Minnesota and Georgia where pollsters got the final result wrong (see… Pollsters defend their surveys in wake of upsets for more coverage of this issue);

Comments:
- All the post polling swings in favour of the democratic party were within the margin of error.
- Several of the post polling swings in favour of the republican party were well outside the margin of error.
- In the states where the senate races were critical and close the swing was predominantly towards the Republicans, with the exceptions of Arkansas and Missouri. The level of post-poll swing in these races in favour of the Republican Party in each race were: North Carolina 3, Colorado 4, Georgia 9-12, Minnesota 8-11, Texas 3-11, New Hampshire 1.
- The state where the biggest upset occurred, Georgia, is also the state that ran its election with the most electronic voting machines.

FULL DETAILS OF ANALYSIS FOLLOW…

******************

Overall Positioning Poll

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-ocongress03nov03,0,416603.story?coll=sfla-news-sfla
Democrats hold a slight lead -- 49 percent to 46 percent -- in the latest nationwide Gallup poll, conducted Oct. 21-22, which asked likely voters nationwide whether they plan to vote for Democratic or Republican candidates for Congress. "Generic" polls of this kind have been reliable indicators in the past. Republicans held a seven-point advantage in the generic poll just before their big victory in 1994, when they gained 52 seats.

HOW ACCURATE?
This “generic” poll published two days before the election was wrong. The swing went the other way towards the Republicans.

POST POLL SWING:
Towards Republicans

***************

Florida Governor

http://www.icflorida.com/partners/wftv/news/2002/bushmcbride09262002.html
A survey released Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Bush leading McBride 49 percent to 43 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45976-2002Oct31.html
A statewide Mason-Dixon poll out today finds the race at the same, 8-point differential as the Times-Herald poll, giving Bush a 51 percent to 43 percent edge over McBride.

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20021104-071640-6740r
The smallest lead for Gov. Jeb in the final round of polls is 6 points, while Zogby places the Bush lead at 16 points. Incumbency, a massive GOP fundraising edge, and a lot of federal money, plus the president's post-Sept. 11 surge in popularity won this race in the end for brother Jeb.

Final Result
56 to 43 to Bush (13 points)

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls had 6, 8 and 9 and 16 point margins, Bush got 13 at the upper end of the range

POST POLL SWING:
On average towards Republican Party.

***************

Florida Thurman (House)

http://www.sptimes.com/2002/09/24/Pasco/District_5_candidates.shtml
(POLITICAL POLL) But it's not encouraging for the incumbent to see 40 percent, plus or minus 5.8 percent, while her main opponent gets 38 percent -- even in a party-funded survey, Gonzales said.

Final Result
48 to 46 to Brown Wait (2 points)

HOW ACCURATE?
A GOP poll gave Thurman 2 points, she lost by 2.

POST POLL SWING:
4 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Florida (House)

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/articles/10-28-02/gizzi.htm
Having sweated through veteran Rep. Clay Shaw’s closest-in-the-nation (599 votes) two years ago, Republicans feel he will easily defeat Palm Beach County Commissioner Carol Roberts in the coastal 22nd District this year. A just-completed American Viewpoint poll showed Shaw leading Roberts by 56% to 30%

Final Result
60 to 39 Shaw (21 points)

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll showed 26 points, result showed 21.

POST POLL SWING:
4 points towards Democratic Party

***************

North Carolina

http://www.journalnow.com/wsj/MGB2Z6H6Y7D.html
The statewide poll conducted Monday and Tuesday found that 48percent of voters said they support Dole, 42 percent now support Bowles, 2 percent support Libertarian Sean Haugh, and 8 percent remain undecided.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
In North Carolina, an MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Republican Elizabeth Dole ahead of Democrat Erskine Bowles, 52% to 46%. But Bowles has been gaining in recent polls and has put nearly $2.2 million of his own money into the campaign since Oct. 17.


Final Result
54 to 45 to Dole (9 points)

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls said 6, Dole got 9.

POST POLL SWING:
3 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Minnesota Senate

http://www.startribune.com/stories/784/3397944.html
Oct 30. Dramatic political developments since Sen. Paul Wellstone's death Friday have had little effect on voters' leanings in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll taken Monday night.Wellstone's likely replacement on the ballot, former Vice President Walter Mondale, leads Republican Norm Coleman by 47 to 39 percent -- close to where the race stood two weeks ago when Wellstone led Coleman 47 to 41 percent.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
In Minnesota, a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll shows Democrat Walter Mondale ahead of Republican Norm Coleman, 46% to 41%. But a St. Paul Pioneer Press poll shows Coleman ahead, 47% to 41%.

Final Result
50 to 47 Coleman (3 points)

HOW ACCURATE?
Three polls gave Mondale 8,6 and 5 points, one poll have Coleman 6 points, Coleman got 3.

POST POLL SWING:
(Excepting The Pioneer Press poll) Between 8 and 11 points to towards Republican Party.

***************

Arkansas Senate

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20021104_406.html
04 Nov 2002... In the Democrats' likeliest takeover contest, Pryor was ahead 51-43 in a CNN-USA
Today-Gallup poll ...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
Democrats have a stronger lead in the fifth state, Arkansas. There, Democrat Mark Pryor enjoys an 8-percentage-point edge over GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-webb110702.asp
By Monday, the latest Zogby poll showed Pryor with a 13-point edge, and even some in the Hutchinson camp seemed resigned to the inevitable.

Final Result
54 to 46 to Pryor

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls gave Pryor 9,8 and 13 points he got 9

POST POLL SWING:
On average towards Republican Party.

***************

Georgia Senate

http://www.coxnews.com/newsservice/stories/2002/1107-POLL.html
Pollsters may have goofed in not picking up the Republican surge in Georgia, however, some pollsters said. In the Senate race, for instance, Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland by a margin of 53 to 46 percent. The Hotline, a political news service, recalled a series of polls Wednesday showing that Chambliss had been ahead in none of them. The closest was the most recent Zogby International poll that had showed Cleland leading 46 to 44 percent, within the plus or minus 4 point margin of error.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
In Georgia, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Democratic Sen. Max Cleland with a 49%-to-44% lead over Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss.

Final Result
53 to 46 percent Chambliss

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls had Cleland winning by 2 and 5 points, he lost by 7

POST POLL SWING:
9 to 12 points towards Republican Party

***************

Georgia Senate

http://www.coxnews.com/newsservice/stories/2002/1107-POLL.html
Similarly, no polls predicted the upset victory in Georgia of Republican Sonny Perdue over incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes. Perdue won by a margin of 52 to 45 percent. The most recent Mason Dixon Poll had shown Barnes ahead 48 to 39 percent last month with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Final Result
52 to 45 percent Perdue

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll gave Barnes 9 points he lost by 7

POST POLL SWING:
16 points towards Republican Party

***************

Alabama Governor

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59053-2002Nov2.html
The latest public poll puts Riley 4 points up, but Republicans say the margin has widened.

Final Result
49 to 49 Riley

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll had Riley by 4 points, the race was nearly a dead heat

POST POLL SWING:
4 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Illinois Governor

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20021104-071640-6740r
In Illinois, Democratic congressman Rod Blagojevich has led Attorney General Jim Ryan handily in every poll except one. The last Zogby Poll has Ryan shaking off his association with outgoing Gov. George Ryan (no relation) and taking a slight lead. But no other poll has this race even close, so a GOP victory would still be a huge upset.

http://www.nbc5.com/news/1759405/detail.html
Zogby International polled 802 likely voters Wednesday through Friday and found each candidate was supported by just over 43 percent of respondents. The findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points.

Final Result
52 to 45 Blagojevich

HOW ACCURATE?
Not an upset. Poll showed 43 points each, result a 7 point win to Blagojevich.

POST POLL SWING:
7 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Illinois House

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/articles/10-28-02/gizzi.htm
A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Shimkus (R) leading Phelps by a handsome 51% to 38%.

Final Result
55 to 44 Shimkus

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll said 13 result was 11

POST POLL SWING:
2 points towards Democratic Party.

***************

Texas Senate

http://news.mysanantonio.com/story.cfm?xla=saen&xlb=180&xlc=856947
Web Posted : 11/04/2002 11:43 AM As Texas’ top two candidates for the U.S. Senate make their way today to San Antonio, the latest poll shows the race has tightened to a dead heat. An MSNBC/Zogby poll released Sunday showed Republican John Cornyn with 49 percent of the vote and Democrat Ron Kirk with 48 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/metropolitan/1646980
Sunday, The Dallas Morning News had Cornyn with a 9-point lead in a poll that had a 3-point margin of error. The Houston Chronicle had Cornyn up by 6 points with nearly a 4-point margin of error.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
In Texas, an MSNBC/Zogby International poll shows Republican John Cornyn's lead over Democrat Ron Kirk shrinking to 1 percentage point, 49% to 48%. Other polls give Cornyn a bigger lead.

Final Result
55 to 43 Cornyn

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls gave Cornyn 1, 6 and 9 points, he won by 12

POST POLL SWING:
3-11 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Texas House

http://www.humaneventsonline.com/articles/10-28-02/gizzi.htm
Democrats felt they had a chance at thwarting Hensarling with former jurist Ron Chapman, who has the same name as a popular disc jockey. But a Baseline poll shows Hensarling leading Chapman by 47% to 36%.

Final Result
58 to 40 to Hensarling

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll said 11 result was 18

POST POLL SWING:
7 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Missouri Senate

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20021104_406.html
A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll Sunday night had Talent at 48, Carnahan at 44, with a 4 percent margin of error.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
Another poll released Sunday shows a 46%-46% tie. That poll was by Zogby International for the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

Final Result
50 to 49 Talent

HOW ACCURATE?
One poll showed dead heat another gave Talent 4, he won by one

POST POLL SWING:
None.

***************

New Hampshire Senate

http://www.unh.edu/news/Nov01/em_20011114survey.html
Write out -- The U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire between Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, and GOP U.S. Rep. John Sununu is shaping up to be a real nail biter. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters taken over the weekend has Sununu at 48 percent, Shaheen at 44 percent and 8 percent not sure or undecided with a margin of error of percent.

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/29/politics/campaigns/29HAMP.html?ex=1036558800
The number of unaffiliated voters keeps rising year by year — it is now 37 percent of the electorate — and polls show the two candidates virtually even, with Mr. Sununu leading in latest survey by 48 percent to 46 percent, well within the four-percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Final Result
51 to 47 Sununu

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls said 2 & 4, he won by 4

POST POLL SWING:
On average towards Republican Party.

***************

New Jersey Senator

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/ny-bc-nj--senaterace-poll1104nov04,0,4518721.story?coll=ny-ap-regional-wire
The Quinnipiac University poll released Monday gives Lautenberg a 50 to 39 percent lead among likely voters, a tally that includes likely voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates. The survey of 574 likely voters, taken from Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
In New Jersey, Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads Republican Doug Forrester, 42% to 37% with 8% undecided, in a poll by Gannett's daily newspapers there.

Final Result
54 to 44 Lautenberg

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls said Lautenberg by 5 and 11 points, he won by 10

POST POLL SWING:
None.

***************

South Dakota Senate

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
South Dakota: Republican Rep. John Thune holds a 48%-45% lead over Sen. Tim Johnson, a Democrat..

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
A poll by Zogby for MSNBC shows Johnson ahead, 52% to 47%. Two polls released late last week by the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO-TV also showed Johnson leading, by smaller margins.

Final Result
50 to 49 Johnson

HOW ACCURATE?
Polls show Thune ahead by 3 and Johnson by 5, he won by 1

POST POLL SWING:
None.

***************

Colorado Senate

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2002-11-03-state-polls-usat_x.htm
Colorado: Republican Sen. Wayne Allard is virtually deadlocked with Democrat Tom Strickland in a rematch from 1996. The poll found Allard ahead 47% to 45%, with 8% undecided.

Final Result
51 to 45 Allard

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll Gave Allard 2 he won by 6

POST POLL SWING:
4 points towards Republican Party.

***************

Tennessee Governor

http://www.wkrn.com/Global/story.asp?S=989807&nav=1ugFC3SD
A survey of 819 people last week conducted for a Memphis newspaper and television station now shows Hilleary with a 41-to-39 percent lead over democrat Phil Bredesen. 15 percent remain undecided. Margin of error is 3-point-five percent.

http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-tennessee-governor1101nov01,0,3673778.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines
The race is a close one. A Mason-Dixon poll of registered voters conducted Oct. 21-23 showed Bredesen with 45 percent and Hilleary with 42 percent, well within the margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points.

Final Result
51 to 48 Bredesen

HOW ACCURATE?
Poll gave Bredesen 3 he won by 3.

POST POLL SWING:
None.

[mike_c]

22. yes it did....

Damn. I remember.

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. The Repub. will make it sound like 1994

but it is not even close to 2002

Perspective

Of course I am asking people to remember beyond last week... my mistake...

Going onto fetal position now.

[MuseRider]

24. I think the point

was what we were feeling then not what the results were/are.