the Gov race here in Oregon is turning bad....Dudley is up.... crap!

[ORDagnabbit]

[HuckleB]

1. His name is not Dudley, it's just Dud.

Ugh.

:mad:

[MrsCorleone]

2. Does the entire state vote via absentee?

[ORDagnabbit]

3. its all mail in and I wish the entire country was like Oregon. easy to count and verify. total paper

trail

[MrsCorleone]

6. I like the idea of a paper trail, but here are my concerns:

Talked to a few voters today in remote parts of CA where ballot by mail was their only option, leaving them with no polling place to drop off late ballots. There were also complaints of cost of postage. This is an issue, because much of this region included an Indian reservation with much poverty.

My question for you: are absentee ballots in Oregon postage paid, and are there drop off locations for last minute voting?

[Nostradammit]

9. Yes and yes.

It's very convenient for the voter.

[WCGreen]

18. They are psotage paid here in Ohio....

[sandnsea]

4. Yeah I'm more than a little queazy

A lot is at stake over the next few years. Read the State House could flip too. Very sad.

[Nostradammit]

5. THey've just started in Multnomah

and Kitzhaber is leading there with 70% to 27% for the jock.

[rufus dog]

7. he ain't a jock

He is a person who happened to be seven foot tall. He lacks any athletic skills.

[Nostradammit]

8. gotcha.

I bet he lacks governance skills as well.

[Tinksrival]

12. Cross your heart!

Glimmer of hope? Please?

[alcibiades_mystery]

10. Kitzhaber could theoretically pull another 80,000-90,000 votes out of Multnomah

There are some GOP strongholds outstanding, but I'll wait to see until Multnomah's at 85% counted before I call an 18,000 vote deficit a finished race.

[depakid]

11. Thanks in part to the base bashing "strategy"

and the poorly targeted half measure stimulus, there was an enthusiasm gap of 7% in turnout favoring Republicans.

Heck of a job...

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. As you well know, you'll have your interpretation, and others will have theirs

We could, of course, discuss those interpretations, but as you also know, I have zero desire to converse with you about anything.

Good luck.

[depakid]

14. Feel free to ignore the posts then

but one cannot ignore the reality of the situation.

The leader of the party employed a losing strategy when given a historic opportunity to relegate Republicans to the fringe for a generation.

[cascadiance]

15. If we lose the governorship, I wonder about our vote by mail system then later...

A few years back, I'd went back to Iowa and talked to and faculty member there who I'd known when going to school there, Douglas Jones, who's been very active on voting issues and was the technical advisor for the HBO film "Hacking Democracy". He expressed personally to me (and this was back in 2006), that he was concerned about vote by mail systems like what we have here in Oregon if it is administered by people that we can't trust. If the Republicans in this state take over the reins of this through Dudley and an increased power in the legislature, we might have more Diebold-style holes in this system too and that could make what we take for granted as a decent voting system potentially very "gameable". I think we should spend the next few weeks talking to our state legislature and other Oregon government politicians on how we can make sure this doesn't happen come 2011. We need to ensure that there are rules in place so that the party in control of the administration of our voting systems don't have the power to corrupt it.

Here's an article of Jones on the net on the subject of vote counting...

http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/voting/counting.html

[LWolf]

16. Dudley 49.41%, Kitzhaber 47.65 with 100% reporting,

according to the Secretary of State.

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2010G/1314035914.html

This is terrible news.

[MissB]

17. Multnomah county is nowhere near fully counted.

As of 1:30 am, the county website says they'd calculates a 65% turnout (checked at 5:30 am). Yet their most recent numbers reflect a slightly more than 45% turnout.

There are huge numbers of ballots to be counted in multnomah. I haven't even looked at lane county yet.

Multnomah will go more than 70% to kitzhaber. Even the Oregonian expects kitz to pull it out.

[LWolf]

19. I fervently hope you are correct.

[MissB]

20. I do math for a living :)

The numbers were immediately behind Kitzhaber, not Dudley. All day long, I had coworkers come up to me and ask me if I was still confident. I smiled and nodded.

Dudley would've had to have shown much bigger percentages in Multnomah County early on. He didn't have a chance, really.

[LWolf]

21. It looks like Multnomah County is going to pull us out of the fire, so to speak.

:thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[jobendorfer]

22. results as of 6:12 pm local time

Kitzhaber is 4800 votes above Dudley.

As others in this thread predicted, there is a backlog of uncounted votes in Multnomah & Lane counties that will put Kitzhaber over the top.
Both are Democratic strongholds, so far the votes in these counties are splitting 2:1 in Kitzhaber's favor.
I don't know how many votes are uncounted at this point.

You can see the Secretary of State's results page at:

http://egov.sos.state.or.us/division/elections/results/2010G/index.html


J.